Follow@cimini

My background in fantasy sports trumps my sports handicapping experience by a handful of years. I’m from the old school of fantasy fanatics that use to crunch their own league numbers and standings. No online software, it was all done with the sports page and a TI-84 calculator to punch in box score stats.

There is an obvious correlation in fantasy sports and sports handicapping. I’m not a trends guy when it comes to all the crazy different scenarios some handicappers can come up with. The type of trends I use for sports handicapping come from individual performances over the years. That’s where the world of fantasy football brings a charm to point spreads and teams.

This week I have the Carolina Panthers as my correlated team for a sports handicapping and fantasy football metrics breakdown.

See The Latest College Football Odds at AllPro

Here are three reasons why I believe there is more value on Detroit’s side this week than Carolina’s.

Rookie Wide Receivers tend to struggle with consistency
The Carolina Panthers surely have found a great rookie in Kelvin Benjamin. But one thing that never fails with rookie wideouts is struggling with consistency. After a very impressive week one you’d have to expect a decline from Benjamin. You’d have to go back to 2012 to find a receiver that has made an impact each and every week, and that is Alshon Jeffrey of the Bears. It took Jeffrey until his second season to achieve such status. Even AJ Green in 2011 struggled with consistency on his way to a 1000 yard season. Benjamin likely won’t be a bust or a downgrade position starter like Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, Titus Young(out of the league), AJ Jenkins(On his way out of the league), Stephen Hill(Unsigned), Justin Blackmon, etc, but he is going to struggle just like everyone else.

Cam Newton’s return from injury
For a quarterback to be held out of week one and then be declared a go on Tuesday just doesn’t add up. If a team feels confident to name Newton a starter 48 hours later something tells you they may be rushing him back. Most teams would have left speculation in the air until Friday or Saturday. It’s the rust of Newton that worries me even more this week for his return. Can he deliver crisp throws to all new wide receivers in Jerricho Cotchery, Benjamin, and Jason Avant? Limited practice reps and on field play leave tremendous doubt this week facing a confident Lions team. That and Newton’s bonus dimension is his scrambling ability. Can he absorb crushing hits to his big frame without grimacing, or will the Panthers scale his carries back completely?

DeAngelo Williams Track Record
I’ve hammered the wide receiver and quarterback position for the Panthers and last but not least is the running back position. DeAngelo Williams. Carolina has had the same dual back system for years with Williams/Stewart and bowling ball Mike Tolbert. All of these guys may not even be true backup running backs around the league. But Carolina keeps their system intact because of Newton’s all around athletic abilities. Williams 72 yards on five yards a carry last week against the Bucs look fantastic on paper. But it’s just the 11th time since 2011 (49 Games) that Williams has cracked over 70 yards rushing.

This game is setting up to put too much pressure on the Carolina Panthers defense. Last year the Panthers lost three of their first four games because the defense couldn’t hold up with their struggling offense. Last week the defense almost collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers. They gave up two touchdowns when the Bucs decided to run a hurry up offense with McCown under center. That’s Stafford’s bread and butter. I find it hard to believe Carolina will be able to stifle a Detroit Lions team that has weapons all over the place. The value here is on the Detroit Lions.