Tips on Covering Spreads
Week one wasn’t just an ugly week on the football field. With eleven road teams winning, Vegas sure as heck cashed in on lots of cash. Last year may have been the year to take favorites on a weekly basis, as they covered 59 percent of the time. If you had done any research though you would have found out that was also the first time that had happened since 1989.
So picking favorites as much as people did in week one is going to land you below .500 on your bets. Notjustagame.com went 10-5, and actually it was 11-4, but we did not change the Washington pick to Minnesota.
After a week like last week it is always key to review how Vegas beat you. There are two key things to look out for, in order to beat the spread. The most important is to not listen to the public. That could be your friends, television, newspaper, or whatever gets thrown into your ears. Secondly, don’t assume that a game is a lock. There is never such a thing.
We’ve broke down five games of last week and ranked them accordingly in Vegas gems of spreads. Also all five were Notjustagame wins.
1. Indianapolis Colts -3 at NY Giants
Looking at this spread all week it looked like the trickiest game on the board. The main reason in thinking that was because the spread was not moving. That means even money is keeping that spread from swaying either way. For those that bet on the Giants covering the three points had to of been sick. The Colts were a play away from kneeling the ball and running out the clock, but were stopped and forced to kick a field goal on a third and two. That was the difference in the Giants covering by a point, and losing by two.
2. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals -7 and above
If you bet on this game early on in the week then you got the spread at the wrong time. It kept jumping and jumping as high as nine points. Everyone figured the Cardinals would blow the 49ers out of their new stadium. The hoopla was too much though and the 49ers stayed with the Cardinals the entire game. What made it worse was the Cardinals tacked on a late field goal to gain a ten point lead. The 49ers then quickly ran down and decided to kick a field goal, and do an onside kick. It almost worked on the field as they recovered the onside kick, but it burned the over 77 percent of people, according to Yahoo, that favored the Cardinals minus 7.5.
3. Atlanta at Carolina -5
A team like the Panthers had everyone boosting them up as Super Bowl favorites. When that is happening additional points are going to factor on a teams side for a spread. At Notjustagame.com we did not believe the Falcons would win in convincing fashion but did believe they’d cover the points. It turned out to be an easy win for the Falcons, and another burn to the 76 percent of people that took the Panthers with the points.
4. Denver -4.5 at St. Louis
This spread really did not make any sense. The Broncos usually struggle week one and this game was at St. Louis. They still hadn’t figured out the running game situation and the Rams were healthy again at 100 percent. For some reason 73 percent of the public thought the Broncos would blow out the Rams. It was not a bad choice but never bet high on road favorites, especially in the sloppy expectance of teams in week one. You did not even need the points or to be worried at all if you bet on the Rams in this game.
5. Seattle -6 at Detroit
Here was a game that all you had to do is study the initial line to see something was not right. The linesmakers had this game originally as a four point favorite for the Seahawks. That seemed to be a little odd and a tight setting for a team coming off the Super Bowl. As the line kept going up in the Seahawks favor (83%) it was enough extra points to seem like a safe cover for the Lions. It turned out to be a great cover and almost an underdog upset of the weekend.
The points are in your favor in NFL spreads to utilize. How many times do games come down to the wire? Usually an easy handful of games will come down to a team either trying to tie it up and having a game ending turnover, or getting that late field goal or touchdown to win a game. That means there will be a lot of spreads this season that will be perfectly set for -3.
Do not ever settle for a half point on your bet. If you have a team at -3.5 buy that extra half a point. It’s better to push then lose on a half point, and it will happen if you do not decide too purchase that half point.
Be sure to check out and listen to our week two podcast as we will break down spreads and fantasy matchups for this weekend. Vegas has already planted some double digit booby traps to try to land on people based on week one.
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