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It’s been a bit of a slow stretch for myself in terms of providing content/plays. That’s been based on March Madness and value as a whole. Expect more from myself as MLB starts here in just a few days and for the NBA playoffs. Series odds will draw interest from me for the NBA. As for Saturday, here is a Final Four ATS preview between Wisconsin and Kentucky.

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The stats out there of brackets being busted pales in comparison to how poorly the large percentage of sports bettors have done thus far. After just four days of tournament play the Las Vegas sports books are faring very well. That’s not shocking when the underdogs went 16-4 ATS to start the tournament (play-in games included). Going into the round of sweet 16 here are a few tips to avoid falling into the public trap again.

Don’t fall for a Cinderella story
The Cinderella stories of teams getting to the Elite 8 or beyond have captured March Madness for years. This year though there are not “true” slipper Cinderella teams out there. Wichita State has been in this spot before, Xavier has defeated teams they should have in this tournament, Michigan State is a 7th seed doing well against favorable matchups. Putting a cinderella slipper on any of these teams is not justified. This a year that all teams remaining are true contenders not cinderella’s.

Money Lines
This goes hand in hand with the last recommendation but I believe it needs to be separated. People can make decent money pinpointing money line scenarios and wagering. The week to do that was last week in the tournament. NC State paid a nice +350-+400 if you picked them over Villanova. There were countless others as well. In the sweet 16 there will be a lot of solid games but I believe the point spread will be a larger factor this week. Remember you need an outright underdog victory to score your ROI and plus payout. A one-point loss is not going to cut it. If you see value to take a money line you should value the points like many sports bettors do.

Too Late to Grab Michigan State

On my twitter account @cimini I suggested during Michigan State’s slump that they remind me of UConn’s 2011 and 2014 team. They were at 100-1 odds at the time. I didn’t put in the wager and probably won’t regret it. After all they’d still have to win the whole title. The final four is a different story but there is high money driving the Spartans currently. Right now they’re at 15-1 to win the title. I think that’s a bit far fetched and people that are piling on this future have missed the boat. Maybe it happens but when value has been shot down this much I’d gladly sit out.

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Friday in the AAC hails another matchup between Temple and Memphis. Current odds have the point spread on Temple’s side as a three point favorite. Earlier this week, Jeff, Zack, and John discussed this matchup in advance from a Vegas perspective. Watch and listen to their takes on this afternoon’s matchup.

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The released finalized report and further imposed sanctions levied against Syracuse make Saturday’s finale even more interesting. NC State has opened as a six point favorite. Las Vegas handicappers, Jeff, Zack, and John discussed this matchup from a point spread vantage point on Tuesday. Get some insight by watching the YouTube video below.

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Saturday in the Big Ten, Michigan travels to face Maryland. The Terrapins are coming off an underdog home win against Wisconsin while Michigan also won as an underdog at home against Ohio State. See what Vegas handicappers John, Zack, and Jeff have to say on the game.

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The loss of Justin Anderson for Virginia has not hurt their current seeding of a #1 seed. They’re still on track to be a high seed as a #1 or #2 seed. Their regular season success has come as no surprise. Last year they did so and only lost one key player in Joe Harris.

With all the returning talent they had and the coaching of Tony Bennett, Virginia has had unwavered success in 2014-2015. But over their last four to five conference games there have been glaring weaknesses to Virginia. Ones that typically cost a high seed an early exit in the NCAA tournament.

As great as Virginia’s defense is they have a hard time maintaining an offensive attack. Even before the loss of Justin Anderson they had rough stretches. In the first half against Rutgers and Davidson they found themselves trailing. Thanks to proper adjustments from Bennett and increased defensive intensity they were able to run away in those games.

As the season has wore on in ACC play, Virginia’s defense has not been as sharp. That’s because teams are starting to attack Virginia more inside. They’ve also been using their poor offense against them. Louisville struggled to score against Virginia but the offense they were able to generate came via missed Virginia shots and attacking against a non-set defense.

If Virginia does not figure out a way to orchestrate better offense they will be on upset alert before the sweet 16 this season. Justin Anderson is due to come back around that time frame. Sometimes a key player returning after a layoff ends up being a detriment to a team. The time away allots players to get accustomed to playing without an individual. Adding Anderson for the tournament will be great for Virginia defensively but I see it hurting them offensively.

Virginia may end up still being a number one seed or a two seed, but the way they’re playing I’d have to rank them a true 4/5 seed with the eye test.