AFC EAST A CLEAR RUNAWAY

Follow@cimini Future bets are perceived with a wait and see value approach. In the NFL the big draw comes when the playoff seeding is official to latch onto odds for twelve teams. For the most part the odds are still going to be in your favor at that moment. Last year the Ravens cashed in and were 25-1 at the LVH during the playoffs. A few years before the Giants were 20-1, and Green Bay was 10-1. More and more wild card teams are giving people a run for their money. But truthfully more money can be made on just placing a moneyline wager on your long shot from the wild card on. In the playoffs of 2013 the Ravens were huge dogs against the Patriots and Broncos, and then a small dog against the 49ers. You pick your battles when it comes to future odds. The New York Giants were dead in the water a few years ago and appeared like they would not make the playoffs. At 40-1 odds before their Sunday night game against Dallas as a 7-7 team, anyone that took them looked like a true New Yorker degenerate. Then the unthinkable happened. The Cowboys blew a big late lead with under five minutes to go in the fourth quarter and the Giants came back and won. They made the playoffs as a 9-7 team and kept on fire in the playoffs. In-season future wagering has its benefits, and the LA Dodgers are proof of that in major league baseball this season. After a horrid start, mid-June the Dodgers were dropped down to 8-1 to win their division. In the span of a month they over took the division. People that bought low are just waiting now to cash that ticket. When it comes to divisional NFL races the tricky part is to evaluate how much you want to wager to win. Picking the easy team to win seems like the road to take, but it’s also the road that leaves a lot of people’s pockets empty. As of mid-July both the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots were -600 to win their division. I can find reason to believe the Broncos might be in for a bigger fight to win the division then people think. Kansas City and San Diego are two teams that perpetually have fought for divisional rights when counted out. In the AFC East that is a different story. New England has been the crowned champion year after year, and 2013 seems no different. If there is a true weak division in football it is the AFC East. Buffalo (15-1) has a conundrum of a situation at quarterback with a new head coach in place in Doug Marrone. New York’s (8-1) story does not need to get drawn out anymore, but is the NFL’s equivalent of a soap opera. You can catch a segment without DVR’ing an earlier sportscenter, because there will not be a sportscenter that is on that will not mention something about the Jets. That leaves the Miami Dolphins. Oddmakers are not fully discounting the Dolphins as they are 4-1 to win the division. For that to occur it would take a rather mediocre season from the Patriots or a Tom Brady injury to happen. Hey, that was the last time the Dolphins won the division when Brady was out for the year with Matt Cassel at quarterback. Miami at best can be a team that goes 10-6, and that would be at best. I don’t foresee that happening which means New England is in the driver seat to win the division, and easily has the best chance to do so out of all teams in the NFL. All other divisions like I said are close knit from an odds standpoint besides the AFC West. You’ll have to pay the piper though if you want a payout on either team in the Patriots or Broncos. To win $100 on the Patriots to win the division you will have to lay a bet worth nearly $650. Sounds crazy but there will be plenty of thousand dollar bets on the Patriots to capture what is assumed a sure winner.

Austin Gives Rams Two More Wins

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Diamonds in the rough for fantasy owners seeking gems on poor NFL teams may not be worth the risk. There are always a handful of teams that are not fantasy football friendly. Yardage and touchdowns are going to happen, but the pace and frequency they come by will vary to the extreme on some NFL teams. You should only have high questions on a mere one or two players that you draft. Upside is what you seek with your fantasy roster depth. For that to happen you’ll look for players that are third wide receivers on high potent offenses or maybe a rookie or two that could flourish in the second part of the season. Like Dennis Green said after blowing a fourth quarter lead on Monday Night Football , “They’re what we thought they were”. If you’re on a diet and still mixing in sweets, you fully know that you’re results are not going to be what you want. The same holds true in fantasy football. You know going into your drafts they’re certain teams to avoid. Here are teams that should be in your future fantasy football draft plans, like a planned vacation in a few years. New York Jets Yes the Jets crack this list once again. The same issues are at the forefront as last season, with question marks the size of 2009 Rex Ryan at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Santonio Holmes has played like an athlete far below where he was as a Steeler, and Stephen Hill looked like was drafted way too high for a second round pick. I can’t see the Jets having a receiver eclipse the 700 yard mark. There may be some hope at running back with Shonn Greene finally gone. Chris Ivory is just returning so will have to see how the time share works with Bilal Powell. Seattle Seahawks I can hear the die-hard Seahawks fans screaming at the fact that they’re team is listed on here. Fantasy football is about value at positions. Positionally speaking they have not been a team that has garnered value at wide receiver. Fans thought there was a chance when Nate Burelson was brought in and then Sidney Rice. Neither were successful. Then Percy Harvin was brought in but he is lost for the season. The fact is Seattle has a way of winning and it’s found that way without having a dominant receiver. Seattle has not had a receiver reach over 1,000 yards since Bobby Engram in 2007. Buffalo Bills Poor Douggie Marrone. Syracuse is looking quite nice right now isn’t it? Just two weeks ago Buffalo fans and the rest of the NFL were drawing back on their harsh criticisms of drafting EJ Manuel so high. Furthermore who some people wanted Marrone to draft, in his college quarterback, Ryan Nassib, has struggled horribly in preseason. In a quick snap Manuel went down and now Kevin Kolb. That’s forced Buffalo to potentially start an undrafted rookie in Jeff Tuel, and signing Matt Leinart. And you thought the Bills had it bad with the Trent Edwards to TO combination a few years back. Having Matt Leinart to serve as your veteran leader to provide feedback to Tuel and Manuel is a recipe for disaster. Oakland Raiders The tug of war struggles to take the first team snaps has plagued Matt Flynn again. Neither Pryor or Flynn have jumped out at me in preseason. Running the football for success like Pryor has happens when you’re down 20 plus points, like the Raideres were to the Bears. If you want to play from behind to have statistical success, than by all means, shoot for that goal. Oakland needs to address the quarterback situation by aiming for one through the draft. The carousel of rotating back and forth with Flynn and Pryor this season may be the ugliest of all quarterback situations. This may even trickle down and effect Darren McFadden more so than people may think. San Diego Chargers This team has some hope, but I need to see some early season indicator to take them off this list. Keenan Allen could be a prospect worth watching. A player of his caliber needs a solid veteran or two at receiver to help him prosper on the field. With Danario Alexander out, Robet Meachem non-existent, Eddie Royal battling issues, and Malcolm Floyd battling injuries, one has to wonder who Philip Rivers is going to throw the football too. There is a lot of names but no one truly to step in and fill the voids of three top caliber wide receivers. Antonio Gates isn’t a spry up and down quick maneuvering transformed basketball player to tight end anymore. He is slower version that relies more on his size and hands, which is a recipe for more interceptions from Rivers, as safeties and linebackers have more time to react. It’s not all horrible. Here are some teams that have been taken off the fantasy oasis of no value from 2012 to 2013. Arizona- All it took was a change over all around for the Cardinals to make a move at quarterback. As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy this should be a revitalized offense. Miami- They’ve upgraded at receiver and even though they took a blow with Dustin Keller going down, they have a solid young nucleus of talent. Kansas City- They’re barely off the bubble. But Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn put the stamp on worse offensive output possibilities last year, even over Arizona and the NY Jets. Alex Smith and the mind of Andy Reid should change things a bit. Jacksonville- Look for Jacksonville to do better than people think. Quarterback, Blaine Gabbert is just 23 years old. His mistake was likely leaving for the NFL a year early as far as for his progression on the field. It was smart in terms of dollars as he did not make the Matt Barkley mistake. Gabbert is younger than Russ Wilson (24) and Ryan Tannehill (25), and the same age as Andrew Luck and RG3 who were all drafted a year after Gabbert. Jacksonville went the old school way of building through youth and through the draft. They’ve taken a lot of down years for it, but they might have a structure ready to blossom finally.

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Enamored with picking the favorites is what the sportsbook’s want. Year after year the books and offshore books win money off of sports fans because of their knack to rush their selections on the hot team. Week one that can not be the case because no one has played a game. All that people can go by is what the team did a year ago and what the media has fed them. Upsets are bound to happen on a weekly basis in college sports. Shake ups amongst the top twenty five are already going to occur after this Saturday.

Here are some potential money line plays for those digging for more than a standard parlay combination.

California over Northwestern- People are getting giddy on this Big Ten Northwestern team that nearly won all their games last season. I believe they’ll be a quality team but they’re a team that is not going to run away from anybody. They’ll keep teams in games. California is being overlooked in this matchup at home. Though they were inconsistent last year, it’s a team that has talent. Northwestern travels all the way to Berkeley for a 10:30 PM start on the west coast. Those are factors that I believe will tilt this game to Cal’s favor.

Utah St. Over Utah- Chuckie Keeton was a name that people did not know of a year ago. After Utah St. was repeatedly on ESPN’s Friday night telecast’s more and more people got to know him. He makes correct and key plays and led Utah St to a powerful season with a decisive bowl game win. Utah was a tricky team down the stretch last year, and might be a year away from having an impact again. Last year Utah St beat Utah for the first time since 1997. They’ll make it consecutive seasons with a Thursday win.

Syracuse over Penn State- This is a line that has shifted tremendously to the side of Penn State from 4-4.5 to now 7. It’s an odd shift to me as Syracuse has withheld media eyes on practices and has not named a starting quarterback yet. I believe the point spread increase is an over reaction. This is not the same Penn State team that went into Syracuse in 2009 in blew them out by 40 points. It’s a sanctioned scholarship reduced team going into the second year of untested waters. Syracuse hired Scott Schafer who will keep things in gear in Syracuse. Many point to the fact that Ryan Nassib, Marcus Sales, Alec Lemon, and Justin Pugh are gone on the offense. Those were seniors expected to move on. Syracuse has a bevy of underclassmen ready to step in like any other mid-tier college program would. The power back field of Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson-Gulley is still there, and I think Drew Allen starts the season off with a bang against Penn State. This is at a neutral site in New Jersey, and even though the fans will be over represented by Penn State, Syracuse will pull this out in the end.
Other Small ML Play- Boise St over Washington
Big Upsets I like- Wash St over Auburn, and Nevada over UCLA
Actual Parlay I’ll Likely Do- Cal, Syracuse, Nevada, and Jacksonville over Kansas City week one. $100 would net you $23,000 for a payout.

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Preseason is more of a period where fantasy owners get over zealous in hyping their player’s and over all roster. Do not get to the point where you’re tinkering so much with the bottom of your roster that you’re subbing off and on with the waiver wire already. It’s uncalled for. Be patient. Here are some newsworthy players though that did a little more for themselves, especially for drafts coming up this week.

Jared Cook- I’ve never been big on guys rejoining their old coaches and expecting great things. That’s all people keep saying about Cook and Jeff Fisher. But Saturday, Cook showed great burst and size over the middle for the Rams. He used his speed on getting open for a couple of seam routes with Bradford, and then used his size and leaping ability to snare a touchdown pass from Bradford.

Brandon Gibson- I profiled a post about Gibson yesterday. He did a solid job Saturday with five catches for over forty yards and a touchdown. It should have been two touchdowns for Gibson. With Miami looking for a tight end to step up and not getting it, Gibson is going to be a guy Tannehill leans on even more.

Kenbrell Thompkins- It’s a game of who knows when it comes to the Patriots receivers behind Danny Amendola. I wouldn’t expect Thompkins or Dobson to explode on a week to week basis but one is going to emerge to have more value—it’s just inevitable. Thompkins had a slew of catches and over 100 yards in Saturday’s poor outing by the Patriots. Thompkins filled the role that the Patriots have used over the years with Welker and now Amendola, as Amendola sat out the game. He’ll be on the field but do not expect the slot receiver catches consistently from Thompkins.

Brandon Stokely- There is a reason why Stokely keeps hanging on and signing with quality franchises. At his veteran age, Stokely still has great route running and hands to play in the NFL. I’m not sold on Jacoby Jones, and the threat of Stokely filling the Anquan Boldin role might not be as big of a drop off as people think. The flare after the catch will not be there, but Stokely can be a great third and short and third down option for Flacco. He had three catches for over forty yards against the Panthers Thursday.

Michael Floyd- Floyd already looks much better than he did last preseason. He caught on in the Cardinals offense in the second half of 2012 and seems to be carrying that over into 2013. Attention is not going to be on him, as teams know all about Larry Fitzgerald and even Andre Roberts. Expect Floyd to develop nicely with Palmer, as he caught a neat back of the end zone beaut from Palmer in yesterday’s loss to San Diego.

Alshon Jeffrey- Cutler loves to air out the ball, and new head coach Marc Trestman is going to emphasize to Cutler that he needs to stay off the radar lock feed with Brandon Marshall. If he listens games like Jeffrey had Thursday should keep increasing (7 catches for nearly 80 yards).

Aldrick Robinson- Someone is going to fill the aging Santana Moss’s role and Robinson may be that guy. Pierre Garcon still has to prove his health over the long haul as well. Robinson is not a guy to jump on immediately but is one to keep an eye on. He had nearly 60 yards receiving with a touchdown against the Bills.
Joique Bell- Keep an eye on Bell as the Lions likely aren’t sold 100 per cent on Mikel LeShoure. It looks like the Lions will utilize Bush similarly to how Miami did, which will be to give him just enough carries to keep him fresh. Bell had five carries for over fifty yards against the Patriots.

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Yesterday I showcased some college totals to glance at before the season kicks off Thursday. Today I give you some NFL over/under season totals that look great. Just like a fantasy team these over/unders always look fantastic before the season starts. I hate to pat myself on the back but NFL season totals have been one of my strong specialties over the years.

Latch onto some of these and come back after week seventeen.

Tennessee Over 6.5- -115
The Titans team as a whole does not look great on paper, but I think 6.5 is a solid number for them. They stayed in a lot of games a season ago, and replaced Matt Hasselbeck with another capable backup quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. I believe he will get some playing time over Jake Locker as the season wears on. Key winnable games, twice against Jacksonville, Jets, split the division games against the Colts, Oakland, KC at home, and a crucial week seventeen finale against the Texans. That is a home game and if the Texans coast they’ll be resting their players giving the Titans an edge on the field.

NY Jets Under 6- +105
This payout will likely move quickly in the event Mark Sanchez misses the early part of the season with a bad shoulder. After Geno Smith’s erratic preseason start against the Giants (3 INT’s), he is ill prepared to be a starter week one. That may happen however. Nothing is worse than a quarterback getting thrown out into the fire before he is ready, sitting on the bench when Sanchez is healthy again, and then coming back in at the latter part of the season. Mentally he will be pressing against the mistakes he had earlier in the season. The team and Rex Ryan just have that free fall Philadelphia Eagles—Andy Reid look from last season.

Washington Over 8 -145
The NFC is more tight knit than ever and the linesmakers are downgrading the RG3/Cousins repeat combo from a season ago. I do not see a reason why the Cowboys (8.5), Giants (9), and even Eagles (7.5) are getting as much love as they are. Washington is infused with youth and returns a healthy defensive unit. Even if RG3 is 85 percent to 90 percent you have to figure the winning streak he finished the regular season on is not going to wane. If All Washington has to do is finish .500 to break even, I’ll take my chances.

Tampa Bay Under 7.5 +125
On paper this team looks very capable of eclipsing the 7.5 win total, but they will not do it. Doug Martin will keep them in games, but when it comes down to it the Buccaneers are going to have to rely on Josh Freeman. Greg Schiano has not backed him yet, and being that it is his last year under contract, the Bucs may be leaning more towards backup quarterback Glennon. He is not ready. That’s when the high contracts Mike Williams (40 million), and Vincent Jackson (55 million) will see their play deteriorate as their team play does.

Jacksonville Jaguars Over 5 Wins -115
We have seen a lot of 1 or 2 win teams from the year prior, suck the puss out of their roster in the offseason, and come back with rejuvenated blood. Jacksonville added Gus Bradley the former Seahawks defensive coordinator as their head coach, and have installed yet another offense for Blaine Gabbert. If Bradley can make an impact to this defense right away, I think the Jaguars get six to seven wins. Offensively they have strong weapons with a tight end in Marcedes Lewis that had a career year just a few seasons ago, under rated young wideouts in Blackmon and Shorts, and a healthy Maurice Jones-Drew. It’ll be up to Gabbert and with protection I think he finally progresses. If he doesn’t Chad Henne showed capable of lighting a fire to the offense in stint stretches last year. I like they’re first two games of the season as well, against Kansas City and Oakland, and believe they’ll win them both.

San Diego Chargers Under 7.5 Wins -125
A few years ago the Chargers would lose tough games and find themselves on the verge of missing the playoffs. Suddenly the mindset of must-win would kick in and the team could hit another gear. Lately that team has been levitating right beneath that level. Hurdles are still all over the field for this team, and I think Ken Whisenhunt and Mike McCoy will prove to be one of the worst tandem alleged coaching upgrades from the eight switches in the offseason. Not only will the Chargers fall below 7.5 wins but I think they do it with strong regression and finish with five.

Others I Like
Seattle Under 10.5- -120
Chicago Over 8.5 – -140
Denver Under 11.5 – -115
Houston Over 10.5 – +115
Kansas City Chiefs – Under 7 +130