Pondering Early Season Trade Offers

Follow@cimini You’ve programmed your smart phone to receive even more enhancements during the football season. You want to be in-tune to injuries, live games, stats, and the all-important fantasy trade offers that come your way. Fantasy drafts are underway and the furious analytics of teams follow suit. Trade offers are going to come your way early and often. Upgrading now or later is the main question. After all you want to field the most favorable team possible in the small fantasy season of 13 to 14 regular season games. Is it better to listen to offers now and realistically ponder completing them? Or should you take a wait and see approach? That’s a tough spot for a lot of fantasy owners. I hear fantasy sports shows with owners confused on what to do. More than likely if you’re being offered a three to four player swap---the other owner is trying to swindle you and boost his team right before the season. You have to be a conscious fantasy mind or all you’re going to do is weaken the league by giving power to a certain team. If an owner sees that you’ve even considered going down the road of a trade longer than you should, he’ll be right back in your ear in no time. He knows that you’ve waited longer than other owners would pondering a trade of sorts. Similar to chess, your weak decision is going to expose you down the road. Never give another owner the mindset that “you’re thinking about it”. Hold your own and veto or submit a counter offer. Look at his team and see how much your players would benefit his overall team. More importantly you need to know if the players you’ll receive will boost your team in the long run. Anxious owners get sucked in to the hype of a trade. Belief that you’re getting the better end of the stick is a novice idea. Time and time again that early season trade could be the end doing of your season before it even starts. You’ve drafted your roster of fifteen or so players for a reason. Why would you give up three to four players in an alleged mega-deal before the season even starts? Don’t. Instead if you feel your team is lacking in a certain position utilize your league’s tools. All leagues have an area of a trading block where you can notate either player you’re willing to part with, or make owners aware of a position you’re in need of. This will put some thought into the sub-conscious mind-sets of the league owners. Even if they do not pull the trigger on an offer now, they may after the first game or two. Make the league owners have impatience not you. Data from last season is no way to facilitate a trade. On the field results and current data is the way to go. Consider how the NFL does trades before the season. They’re typically minute trades that are beneficial for an area with a key injury or to upgrade depth where they’ve cut a player due to poor performance. Almost never is a blockbuster deal done before the season. So do not do a three to four player swap now It’s no secret that the waiver wire is where the biggest gains of a fantasy season happen. Securing one or two key waiver wire additions can be all the world to a fantasy team. Most of the time a significant impact waiver wire player is someone that’s going to be a top fantasy pick in next year’s draft. Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin the III last season, and Cam Newton the year before are just a few names that ring a bell. I’m not saying not to do trades’ an entire season. It’s beneficial in several ways. There is just a time and place when to dive in on the move.

Go For The Fade

When it’s red zone time most people want to gravitate to the coaches inserting their power back in I formation. With the rise of quarterbacks statistically throwing the football more, there are other key red zone stats to look out for. Big tall targets are a quarterbacks best friend inside the five yard line. Knowing the tallest receivers in the NFL that are likely to be thrown a fade route, is yet another key stat you should know going into your fantasy football drafts. The fade route is one of the most common throws on the goal line. Seemingly every team knows it’s coming, but teams just can’t stop it. The reason why is because of the height advantage and leaping ability with a wide receiver over the smaller defensive back. That and the quarterback and receiver have worked on the route countless times. It’s a timing route that the receiver and quarterback have a spot in mind before the ball is even snapped. All the receiver has to do is go up and get it. Here are some guys you should keep in mind for the fade route. Obvious names such as Calvin Johnson, Fitz, Bryant, Colston, Jackson, and Dwayne Bowe I’ll keep off this list. Mohammed Sanu Sanu had his ups and downs as a rookie a year ago for the Bengals. It looks like he has overcome some of his struggles and will be the second receiver for the Bengals this year. He is a tall target and has already had a nice fade route touchdown catch with Andy Dalton in the preseason. Attention is coming AJ Green’s way for the third straight season, and will keep things open for Sanu in the red zone. Mike Williams Mike is not necessarily the tallest receiver, but he is a touchdown gobbler in red zone. He could be having a horrific game, and then have his one catch for six yards and a touchdown. That’s what makes Williams a different type of tier two wide receiver. He has done it many of times where his catches and yards may not be there in a certain game, but he makes up for it with a meaningful six point touchdown catch for you. Justin Blackmon When he returns from suspension Blackmon should and will be a commodity for fantasy owners. His physique and abilities is what made him a top draft pick a year ago out of Oklahoma State. I actually think he’ll still come close to his numbers from a year ago even with a four game suspension. Golden Tate A fade throw might not be how Russ Wilson looks for Tate, but the two have a knack for connecting in the red zone. Tate had seven touchdowns last year, including a couple of big game winners. A deep ball catch against the Patriots and the replacement referee’s jump ball notoriety catch. At 5’10 the Seahawks work and look for Tate as if he was 6’3. Malcolm Floyd The red zone is still Antonio Gates’ but age and loss of speed mean that others can and will have a chance to still Gates thunder. Floyd has filled that role somewhat over the past few years, but the Chargers are still looking for that Vincent Jackson type. If healthy Floyd, at 6’4, is still the primary receiver to have the best opportunity. Jon Baldwin His role in San Francisco and how he develops is the key here. The Chiefs obviously did not like his development so sent him for another receiver in AJ Jenkins. With Michael Crabtree out and Anquan Boldin aging, Baldwin may get a chance to replant his NFL steps and take ahold of an opportunity. In college he was dominant at Pittsburgh, and has the size at 6’4 is a quarterback’s best friend. Alshon Jeffrey Knowing the lingering effects of Brandon Marshall’s hip injury will be a high indicator of what Jeffrey’s season will look like. If Marshall is hindered by the injury mentally and physically on the field, it will give Jeffrey’s a prime chance to have a breakout season. Trestman’s new offense is expected to be fantasy friendly, and Cutler should look Jeffrey’s way plenty of times.

Line Value On Second Go Around Coaches

Follow @cimini Herm Edwards, Jimmy Johnson, Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren, and the list goes on, were all well-known coaches throughout their tenures in the ranks. One major commonality though was they may have coached for too long. There comes a time when even the most talented coaches can’t get a team to mesh and develop on the field. It’s more of a trend than the opposite effect of going to a team and turning them into a perennial contender. Bill Cowher decided not to re-test the coaching ranks for awhile and may never. He sees and knows the trend, and I think it’s time for sports bettors to do so as well. That’s why I believe this season there is tremendous line value with Andy Reid, Jeff Fisher, Mike Shanahan,Tom Coughlin, and even John Fox and Bill Bellichick. Those are quite some names and some distinguished that have already proven their worth on the teams they’re currently coaching. Like Bellichick and Coughlin who have won Super Bowls. That does not automatically guarantee success the following year or years. Coughlin and the Giants have been hot and cold, and when they’ve been hot they’ve barely made the playoffs as six seeds. One can say if they had missed the playoffs those two Super Bowl seasons he would not have a job right now. The truth of the matter is the Giants have only had seasons of ten wins or more in four of Coughlin’s nine years coaching the Giants. His overall percentage record as a coach is .576. This team going into 2013 has the look of a team ready to crumble. I’ll be keying on games to go against the Giants this season. For Denver and New England the infatuation starts off with their poor divisions. Both should coast for five to six easy wins in their division. Those wins alone should qualify them for a notch up on other AFC teams to try and secure a bye, as the other divisions are much tougher. Easier play sets up two great things for bettors throughout the season--great underdog lines three to four times on each team, and a moneyline opportunity in the playoffs. I’ll say it right now, that neither the Patriots nor Broncos represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The coach with the most pressure on him has to be Mike Shanahan. The RG3 showcase is the new Tim Tebow sensation. The media cannot get enough of RG3 and his play on the field will be scrutinized or over emphasized all season long. In a tough division and NFC that can wear on a young team such as the Redskins mentally. This team lost a string of games before they finished the season on fire with seven in a row. I don’t think the mental fortitude will be there for this team this time around if they lose two or three in a row. Pressure creates tension, and both of those factors are already there. Shanahan’s indecision to pull RG3 from the playoffs last year is going to be a lingering fact that the media will not sidestep all year. If RG3 limps on a play or slows down on an open field run, it’ll all be over analyzed. Shanahan is now 61 years old, and if RG3 fails, he ultimately fails. It won’t take long for Daniel Snyder to go back to his Jerry Jones ways. As for Andy Reid and Jeff Fisher, I think both teams will be topsy turvy throughout the 2013 season. Fisher in my mind has the better advantage and talent to make a better than expected run in 2013. But that’s not where the media’s mind is right now, as the Rams aren’t projected to do anything. Kansas City on the other hand has enormous expectations. I don’t know if thinking adding Alex Smith with mediocre offensive talent is going to lead to Andy Reid’s great offensive show. Reid’s teams in Philadelphia use to win with offense. Do people actually think Alex Smith can gun the Chiefs up and down the field? I foresee some major problems starting early on the season off the bat in Jacksonville. Jamal Charles has always had the ability to be a game changer for a game or two, but he is also an over hyped tailback. Downgrade the Chiefs and Reid.

Follow @cimini

The glamour of studying college lines is officially here. Hopefully you have developed a proper bankroll management system before you dive in today. I have three premium plays on the board today to jump start the college football season. The free play focuses on Utah St and Utah. It was a game on national television last year and one that saw Chuckie Keaton breakout into the limelight. It was also the first time Utah State defeated Utah since 1997. The line is tight in this one, but I think there is a clear advantage in the total. Both of these times want to win and that gives the advantage to the offenses. Utah is still vulnerable defensively and lost their star DT to the NFL Draft. I do like the way their offense progressed as the season went on. Starting quarterback Travis Wilson showed some really solid development towards the end of the season. I think he carries that over to this season. Chuckie Keaton won’t back down though and he’ll keep Utah State in the game with big plays.

Take the over, as last year’s final was 27-20 and was a sloppy game for the most part.

Power To The Backfield

Follow@cimini The BCS Championship was supposed to be a matchup of the two best teams in college football when Notre Dame and Alabama took the field. All the hype of a possible Notre Dame upset over Alabama was pushed even higher by the Notre Dame fanfare. They had beaten Stanford and Oklahoma, so seemingly they stood a chance against Alabama. Eddie Lacy’s dictated running, spin moves, and shedding of tacklers put an end to that moot point. The bowl game turned from a championship into what looked like a week one college game. A game usually dedicated to conference powers tuning up for the season with a weak opponent. The demolition derby began early and was a three hour spectacle of Alabama’s coup de grace over Notre Dame. How Eddie Lacy performed in that game with ease, surely was thought to catapult him as a first round pick. Poor draft workouts and surgery nicked his stock a little bit, but not to the dismay of the Green Bay Packers. The carousel of backs since Ahman Green had a productive season has seen the likes of Ryan Grant, Alex Green, and even Cedric Benson a year ago. Voicing displeasure surely would of happened by other quarterbacks around the league, but Aaron Rodgers is an on the field performer and not a media guy. Having success with a rookie running back has fallen from the hey days of Robert Edwards and Fred Taylor years ago. Last year though it resurrected with top backs Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, and sixth round draft pick Albert Morris all having quality seasons. Significant impact years that retrained the eyes of fantasy owners and dynasty league drafts to pay attention to a rookie running back no matter if he is drafted in the first round or not. Like Merril Hoge says a factor back is a factor. Coming into the NFL it is never guaranteed for immediate success but chances are growing now that more teams are in need for bigger depth at the running back position. Aging of backs has also caused a somewhat of a make shift of longevity in running backs lessening the opportunities of rookie backs. With the surplus of backs and cut downs on carries per game, its aging backs better. A veteran that does not see the field too much as a second or third back is going to be considered by other teams, while before teams would just rebuild through the draft. Now teams know the legs are not burnt up from their first four to five years in the league, and can count on them for a second contract. It’s sort of similar to how the NBA handles second round draft picked rookies. Contracts are not guaranteed so they make those picks fight out a roster spot with an NBA/Overseas veteran that has just as much talent. The gap has closed in the backfield for elite prospects, so why over pay for a first round running back? Eddie Lacy is trying to buck the notion that he should of fell to the second round, instead of being a first round pick. Many would want to point out the fact that Mark Ingram from Alabama has not even surpassed Pierre Thomas on the Saints depth chart. That is true, but a situation can change all of everything, and Lacy has that chance in Green Bay. With Duane Harris just going down to a season ending injury the Packers have exactly what Lacy wants. Opportunity. He gets to step in a heavy workload situation where he can either fall out of favor with the Packers quickly, or supplant himself steadily in a role the Packers have been trying to fill for years. Green Bay still has running backs James Starks and Alex Green and may utilize them early in the season if Lacy struggles. But Green Bay knows what Starks and Green can offer them and want to build away from that, not onto it. Jonathan Franklin the other rookie drafted from UCLA appears to be behind in understanding the offense so his impact will be little if any until later in the season. This predicament with Lacy can leave fantasy drafters with endless questions. To draft Lacy as their second or third back, or let him stray to unchartered waters elsewhere, and not have to worry about him altogether. I believe Lacy is vastly undervalued right now, and even more with the season-ending injury to Harris who the Packers planned on involving heavily. Let’s put the past few semi-successful running backs in Green Bay in perspective. In a passing attack that ranks top five with the best quarterback in football, James Starks and Ryan Grant had solid seasons. Starks had more of an impact in the Green Bay Packers playoff Super Bowl run because he was coming off an injury. Grant’s heyday was more with Brett Favre but he still provided solid action and results for the Packers. If those two backs can do it why not Lacy? The primary issue with Green Bay Packers running backs in the past has been injuries. Lacy has already had a few that he has had to recover from, and will need to avoid the injury bug. Being ranked anymore from the high teens to mid 20’s is where Lacy is falling for running backs. Select Lacy as your third running back and stamp trade bait and the green arrow next to him for stock rising. For where he is ranked even if he only stays your backup running back you can’t complain. But like last year’s rookie crop, I doubt he’ll stay on the bench too long.

Forty Million Dollars Later

Follow @cimini When Greg Paulus decided to re-open his recruitment to attain a last year of eligibility via a college’s graduate program, many believed Syracuse would be the school he chose. Doubts crept quickly though on how Paulus would play the position of quarterback after spending the last four years as a Duke point guard. The answer was easy. Find and throw to Mike Williams as much as you can. Paulus did just that and the two had a dynamic combination. Williams broke a Big East record with touchdowns in nine straight games and had the attention on NFL scouts. Attention that Syracuse had dropped the distinction of becoming possible for several years as a cellar team in the Big East. In a span of weeks Williams promising return from academic troubles to a productive junior season looked like it was washed away again. New head coach Doug Marrone had suspended Williams and other Syracuse player’s for violating conduct. Williams would not return to play another down at Syracuse. Tarnishing his draft stock was inevitable and did as he fell to the fourth round. Williams had a choice to make at that moment and throughout his first three seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers his name has remained out of the unwanted type of athlete news---Ticker Flash News Across ESPN. Instead he relished the opportunity to do what was correct and let his career as an NFL receiver be the only objective as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. As a rookie in 2010, Williams helped Josh Freeman to a career year with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Williams caught an astonishing eleven of Freeman’s 25 touchdowns. A new dynamic tandem had been branched together down in Florida. A tandem Florida likely has not seen from any of their teams in Jacksonville, Miami, or Tampa Bay since Mark Brunell to Jimmy Smith. That’s how bad the three franchises had been over the last five to six years between quarterbacks and wide receivers. 2011 did not fare well as a team for Tampa Bay and Williams did not play near as well with the added attention by defenses to him. It was a combination of things and Tampa Bay ultimately decided to let Raheem Morris go. Greg Schiano was brought in and anytime a new tenure is enforced changes on roster’s can happen at the drop of a dime. Vincent Jackson was signed to a mega-contract and that made Williams role even more unclear heading into the 2012 season. Playing on a rookie contract for a fourth round pick, Williams was once again faced with an opportunity to step up or have the walking papers handed to him. He rose to the occasion and put up stellar numbers as a likely WR4 or WR5 in most fantasy leagues. Fantasy playoffs are the time to shine for participants. More and more attention is being paid to athletes that can put forth a different type of season in that final stretch of the fantasy playoffs. Mike Wiliams did that and had four touchdowns in the last five games of the season. Tampa Bay did not hesitate to retain Williams as they see a bright future for him alongside Vinny Jackson. Quietly they re-signed Williams to a forty million dollar contract. Now it’s time for Williams to put the same type of work in he has throughout his years at Syracuse and Tampa Bay to prove that his contract is worthy. Vincent Jackson is a young thirty years old, so chances are high that this combination will be together for at least three to four seasons. Not too bad for an athlete that had twelve other receivers drafted ahead of him, including Arrelious Benn. A second rounder drafted by Tampa Bay who is no longer on the team, and trying to make the Philadelphia Eagles roster now.