Newton Must Buckle Down Now

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Adversity in a career is sure to pop up several times. Cam Newton had instant success when he stepped onto the football field as a rookie against the Arizona Cardinals. It carried over to one of the more memorable years by a rookie quarterback. Then the offseason happened and defensive coordinators and staffs were able to prepare and study Newton’s tendencies all offseason.

Sort of like a pitcher that sees his command lost and ERA continue to skyrocket, Newton has not been able to snap out of a fantasy slump. Owners that want to say he stepped it up late in the season must have had some surprise players such as Alfred Morris or RG3 that helped boost Newton’s early woes in the season. For most owners of Newton he cost them several games for the first few months of the season.

You could pinpoint that Seattle against Carolina was a defensive game, which it was. But Russ Wilson was able to figure out a way to catapult his Seahawks when necessary and had over 300 yards passing.

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This type of performance by Newton could be detrimental to his third year. In prior years Newton could look at his six divisional games as an opportunity to flourish against the mediocre and weak defenses of the Saints, Falcons, and Buccaneers. Well, those days are over. New Orleans has upgraded the defense with Monte Kiffen, and stifled the Falcons from their usual high octane offense. Atlanta has pieces in place to make a further run at the playoffs, and the Buccaneers main strength is defensively where they spent a ton of money bringing in key players.

So for Newton to be effective he is going to have to bring his A game to the table against top tier defenses. He can’t have ping pong type of performances where he settles for poor outings against higher caliber defenses, and then shines against teams that are poor. That will land Newton and Carolina with another record of near .500 or even a few games short.

Someone needs to emerge from the veteran Panthers and have a breakout game to lessen the burden for Newton. Whether it’s old skilled receiver Steve Smith, or running back DeAngelo Williams, Newton needs someone that almost all other top tier teams have in difference makers. All the pressure can’t be on Newton’s shoulders.

One game to start the year would not be a huge significant to a lot of player’s, but this one was for Newton. It does not get any easier for Newton as he has to travel to Buffalo and Arizona over the next three weeks. The game sandwiched in between is a rematch of last year’s Thursday night game against the New York Giants. In that game the Panthers also just scored one touchdown and were blown out from the onset.

An area Newton can find hope is the Panthers defense. They shined in preseason and have a great front seven that limited the Seahawks ground attack. Defenses only hold for so long before they begin to fold from poor offensive plays.

For fantasy owners you have to live by your decision to believe in Newton. As I stated after Sunday’s games, you may want to start your backup quarterback over the next game or two, until Newton has a game worthy of starting. That is if you have a capable fantasy backup.

Upgrades/Downgrades for Roster Flex, Bench Depth, and Borderline Starters

Follow@cimini The vital last few spots that you consider for your fantasy lineup can propel or derail your fantasy season. Each week I'll break down player's that you should upgrade or downgrade based on their value as a flex, borderline starter, or bench depth. Here is a look based on week one's performances.

Upgrades

Reggie Bush Bush has made big plays for fantasy owners since his days with Miami. Entering with a new team in Detroit it was not known how much he would be involved. After Sunday's all around stellar game, those questions are already quelled. Bush has to be seen as a huge upgrade on any team that he is owned on. Fred Jackson When CJ Spiller said he wanted to get 2,000 yards, Doug Marrone said they would give him every opportunity. After Jackson's thirteen carries to Spiller's seventeen Sunday, it looks like Marrone was bluffing. While coaching at Syracuse, Marrone was key on using a duel backfield heavily. So expect Jackson's week one carries to be similar to what he gets on a week to week basis. Shane Vereen The Patriots have to happy with the way their backfield is panning out. It grew by leaps and bounds with Vereen and Ridley over Woodhead/Green-Ellis. Vereen had another gear on Sunday and seems to be ready to blossom with whatever role the Patriots offer on a week to week basis. As a flex starter Vereen seems to fit the bill perfectly. Hakeem Nicks I was highly concerned on how NIcks would play early on in the season. He was limited throughout preseason and it looks like it was all precautionary to protect his health. The green light is back on Nicks for now. If you have great depth at wide receiver and are concerned about his longevity, see if you can earn a solid trade for him. Julian Edelman Brady loves to spread the ball around and at least early in the season it looks like Edelman has the nod over Aaron Dobson who had zero catches and Kenbrell Thompkins who had only four. It could shift as the season goes on, but Edelman should hold solid flex value currently. Kyle Williams He did not have a big game statistically but Williams was involved in the passing game more than you'd expect. Anquan Boldin is not going to have huge games every week, and that is going to leave the door open for someone like Williams. Williams has chemistry with Kaepernick from repitition last year and seems to have a leg up on the rest of the 49ers receivers. See if he is on the waiver wire and build your roster depth at receiver. Miles Austin It was only a few years ago that Austin made the most of his opportunity and pieced together incredible games. The past few years Austin took a step back due to injuries. Now he is in a different role as Dez Bryant has cemented himself as a top receiver. Austin can now feed off of Bryant's attention from defenses to still be a main threat. With DeMarco Murray's inconsistencies and Dallas's love of throwing the football, Austin is a highly rated WR3 or flex for your fantasy team.

Downgrades

Ben Roethlisberger Just because someone has a name and history does not mean it will be his/her year. That seems to be the case with Big Ben as the Steelers seem to already be unraveling with frustration a week into the season. Coordinator Todd Haley and Ben are going to have to patch things together quickly or it might be one of the uglier years for Pittsburgh. Ben's old tricks of being a fantasy subsitute starter seem to be dismal for 2013. There are much better options to find than Big Ben at this point. Cam Newton We've seen this type of start from Newton last year. Newton feeds off of how he is performing. If he is playing poorly it'll be followed up by bad games, and vice versa. Fantasy owners must consider starting their backup quarterbacks over the next couple of weeks over Newton. If not he will dig you into an 0-3 hole just like he did a year ago. David Wilson Wilson's two fumbles Sunday may leave him in the tough minded head coach Tom Coughlin's dog house. You can not be a feature back and fumble the way Wilson has when he has been given a chance. Wilson's role in the future will surely be downgraded to a much lesser extent in the Giants offense. Ronnie Hillman It's only going to be a matter of time before Montee Ball takes over the head committee role that Hillman was supposed to have. Even Knownshown Moreno seems to be surpassing him. At this point, Hillman should be disregarded unless injuries occur in the Broncos backfield. TY Hilton The Colts are going to run more two tight end packages and that is going to hurt Hilton. Hilton struggled Sunday and had only twenty yards receiving. Teams know when he is on the field that they need to have the deep ball covered. Greg Jennings For fantasy drafts Jennings value was really up in the air. More than likely you got him for a bargain with upside. Well that upside is going to hinge on Christian Ponder, and Ponder is ranked towards the very bottom of all starting quarterbacks currently. Until Ponder shows a couple of games of successful starts, Jennings may need to be benched in your leagues.

Best Catches to Target Percentages Week One

Follow @cimini Often in games you will see announcers spotlight a defensive back in the amount of footballs thrown his way versus actual catches completed. Darrelle Revis only allowed one catch his way on four throws Sunday. Each week on Monday I will give you the reverse. For fantasy owners it is not all about the obvious stats that you should think about. Knowing how many targets versus actual catches is a necessity. Here are some key breakdowns of player's that fared well and one's that didn't when it came to targets there way. The top overall fantasy wide receivers in terms of targets and catches Anquan Boldin- Kaepernick looked Boldin's way often--17 times, and Boldin hauled in thirteen of those targets. Of course those type of numbers put Boldin at the top for both statistics this week. Reggie Wayne- Wayne was able to catch all of the eight targets that came his way. This is nothing new to Wayne as he is able to control his body and catch a ball in numerous ways. He had a fabolous one handed catch and a back of the endzone touchdown on Sunday. Danny Amendola- Filling Wes Welker's old role means Amendola should assume the piles of fantasy stats that Welker left. If he maintains his health ten catches on twelve targets may be on the low end of a week for Amendola. Brian Hartline- Hartline trailed Boldin just by two targets Sunday with fifteen. He only had nine catches though. Fifteen targets is awfully high. Miami had to resort the pass in the second half as the ground game just did not work. Jordan Cameron- Cleveland threw the ball enough to age Brandon Weeden another year Sunday. Cameron was one to benefit greatly from that with thirteen targets, and catching nine of those. Based on Cameron's preseason and his week one performance, he is now to be considered a top five fantasy tight end. Others that had strong outputs based on targets- Doug Baldwin 7 catches/8 targets, Jerome Simpson 7 catches/8 targets, AJ Green 9 catches/13 targets, Brandon Marshall 8 catches/10 targets, Andre Roberts 8 catches/9 targets, Jared Cook 7 catches/10 targets, Kellen Winslow 7 catches/8 targets, Julio Jones 7 catches/9 targets, Brandon Gibson 7 catches/10 targets, Vernon Davis 6 catches/9 targets, Emmanuel Sanders 7 catches/12 targets, Dallas Clark 7 catches/12 targets, Nate Burelson 6 catches/6 targets, Julian Edelman 7 catches/9 targets, Miles Austin 10 catches/12 targets, Jason Witten 8 catches/9 targets, Desean Jackson 7 catches/9 targets, Andre Johnson 12 catches/16 targets Others that did not handle their targets well Greg Olsen Olsen caught half of his ten targets. Carolina's mediocre offense is going to go on the shoulder's of Cam Newton. He needs to be more accurate and involve Olsen consistently on a week to week basis. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams The slant worked to perfection by the Buccaneers offense. Other routes the receivers seemed to be stifled a bit. Vincent Jackson had a big day on paper but it could of been much better. He had thirteen targets and only hauled in seven passes, while MIke Williams caught four of his eight. This is something that Josh Freeman has to get better with and so do his receivers at catchin the football. Greg Jennings It was a disappointing debut for Jennings as a Viking. He caught just three passes on seven targets. Maybe Green Bay was correct in letting Jennings walk via free agency. Eric Decker Decker seemed to be out of it a bit on Thursday, as he had a few drops. Fantasy owners should not expect just a paltry two catches on seven targets typically. He'll bounce back from his rough opening game. Kembrell Thompkins Thompkins showed why he was undrafted Sunday and struggled in his new unexpected role with the Patriots. He had only four catches on fourteen targets. Cecil Shorts Seemingly the only receiver with fantasy consideration with Justin Blackmon suspended is Shorts. He did well last year, but Sunday no one on Jacksonville was able to do much of anything. Shorts was targeted eleven times and only had three catches.

Week One Wonders

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The waiver wire is going to be flooded like it typically is after week one. Should you over bid for certain player’s or should you let the feasting to be desired by the rest of the league? Here are some players that I believe were week one wonders.

Geno Smith
With all the New Yorkers out there I’ll go ahead and keep it simple for you. Geno Smith delivered a drive before half from near the fifty yard line, and then another twenty five yard drive that setup their game winning field goal. Besides that Smith was sporadic and ran a simplified offense. At the end of the day it’s hard to see how he accumulated over 250 yards passing.

Russ Wilson
The day I see Russ Wilson as my opponent’s fantasy starting quarterback, I’ll know instantly I have one position won. Wilson has the Tim Tebow flare because he plays his best late in games and in fourth quarters. He has quarterbacking skills but I believe they’re vastly overrated from where they should be. He may get to that level but lets cool his rankings a bit. 300 yard passing games are not going to be the norm from Wilson.

Rashard Mendenhall
People do not always just look for the yardage and fantasy numbers from a player to consider him a worthy waiver wire pickup. Mendenhall had sixteen carries Sunday, and that looks fantastic for owners looking for quality backs. The problem was that Mendenhall only averaged 3.8 yards a carry. His best days are long behind him. It will only be a matter of time before the Cardinals platoon a higher ratio of carries in a crowded backfield.

Jackie Battle
Tennessee is a team that is not goin to light up the scoreboard offensively. That has always made the Titans a one man fantasy backfield. Lendale White had a bit of success but that was years ago with a better all around offense. If Fitzpatrick becomes the Titans quarterback than Battle may be worth looking at. For now ignore his touchdown Sunday, even though he is the goal line back of the Titans.

Brian Hartline
Hartline is included in the waiver wire column this week as well. His outbreak this week might end up being his best output of the season. Ryan Tannehill is obviously most comfortable with his only receiver that sees the field that was on last year’s team. It’ll take some time for Tannehill to develop the same chemistry with Gibson and Wallace. Once it happens Hartline will likely just be a depth filler.

Doug Baldwin
The Seahawks have not had a 1,000 yard receiver since Bobby Engram in 2007. Baldwin has flirted with fantasy rosters in the past. Owners hopefully learned last year that he is not fantasy roster material. His 90 yards week one will surely be his high of the year. If he surpasses 600 yards receiving it’ll be a big surprise. Baldwin’s biggest contribution for the Seahawks is on special teams.

Marlon Brown
I profiled the Ravens dilemma at receiver a bit in the waiver wire article post week one. Brown is figured to be the next guy in line to fill in for Jacoby Jones over the next month. He’ll be used intermittently but I believe the Ravens are going to lean more in the veteran directions of Brandon Stokely and Dallas Clark.

Week One NFL Team Rankings

Follow@cimini Rankings tend to give fans hope before the season starts. Week by week I’ll profile rankings based on performance and where teams are projecting. Going into week one the top tier teams hypothetic ally should be relevant most of the season----only if things worked out so smooth. Obviously large shifts will happen it’s the nature of the sport. Take a peek at where your team falls before week one of the NFL season begins. 1. San Francisco- The NFC Conference Championship two years ago and Super Bowl last season. The last stop for this team would be a championship. 2. Denver Broncos- They’ll have more struggles than people think 3. Atlanta- More pieces are in place. Steven Jackson should boost this offense significantly 4. Seattle- I’ll have to see how Russ Wilson responds in his second season before rating the Seahawks higher 5. Houston- They’ll likely race to another fast pace record but can they do anything in the playoffs? 6. New England 7. New Orleans 8. Green Bay 9. Cincinnati 10. Baltimore 11. Washington 12. Chicago 13. Dallas 14. NY Giants 15. Pittsburgh 16. Indianapolis Colts 17. St. Louis 18. Tampa Bay 19. Kansas City 20. Carolina Panthers 21. Arizona Cardinals 22. Miami Dolphins 23. Minnesota Vikings 24. Detroit Lions 25. San Diego 26. Philadelphia 27. Tennessee Titans 28. Cleveland Browns 29. Jacksonville 30. Oakland Raiders 31. Buffalo Bills 32. NY Jets

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