Week Five Start/Sit Options

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Get in on week five action for automatics/don’t do its for your lineups. Yes it’s October. Are you already contemplating how you’re going to draft better for next season’s fantasy drafts? Let’s hope not. Here are solid options to submit as starters and who not to this week.

Automatics

Chris Rainey
The Browns running back should get a steady dose Thursday against the Bills alongside Willis McGahee. The Bills have been poor defensively on the road. Coming off a short week the Browns will look to limit mistakes as much as possible. To do that they’ll need to expand the running game more than they have in their two game win streak. Brian Hoyer has done it with his arm but they’ll tone it down and give Rainey and McGahee a fair amount of carries.

Cam Newton
Cam Newton is one of those number one quarterbacks that people have to ponder to start/sit each week. This would not be a week to do that, even though he is going against a solid defense on the road in Arizona. Remember Newton’s first game as a professional was against the Arizona Cardinals and he put on a show. Coming of renewed confidence after their week three win and a bye week, I’d expect Cam to continue to build upward and not downward.

Riley Cooper
Chip Kelly has to be shaking his head with his offensive approach being derailed by playing from behind. Last week the Eagles were just over powered by the Broncos ability offensively. For the first time since week two against the Chargers the Eagles should be able to attempt their game plan for a complete game. New York’s defense has not been able to stop anyone. DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy will get their typical numbers but this is the type of game that Riley Cooper can step up and have a fantasy impact as well. Yardage wise he can crack the eighty yards with a touchdown.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitz gets his chance as the Titans starter for the next four to six weeks. With the team playing solid defense, Fitzpatrick will likely be able to play with calmness instead of being down by several scores like he was in Buffalo. For Fitz his woes in Buffalo had to do with his turnovers not his numbers overall. There was a time not too long ago that even you thought of picking him up off of waivers as a Buffalo Bill. He’ll have better value now on an underrated Titans team, and should be a solid play each week including Sunday against Kansas City.

Terrelle Pryor
A week after sustaining a concussion the Raiders made it clear there would be no quarterback controversy in Oakland. They further demoted Matt Flynn to third string. That should alleviate Pryor from any concerns of looking behind his shoulder or playing with increased stress on the field. A late game is going to cause some mental lapses defensively. Kickoff will be at 8:30PM which is the latest kickoff in quite awhile in the NFL. Pryor has the freelance escape skills and enough of an arm to equate to a viable starter this week against Oakland.

Others: Doug Baldin, Trent Richardson, and MJD

Don’t Do Its

Joe Flacco
Flacco had the type of day last Sunday that you just don’t see from a Super Bowl MVP. With Buffalo willing to squander a game, Flacco threw yet another interception with a chance to tie or win the game before the end of regulation. Almost all of his interceptions were in the “no business” zone. Throws he doesn’t typically make, but for some reason Buffalo had him in a tizzy. Getting out of a slump that Flacco is in doesn’t happen in one game. The Ravens will need to game plan a run heavy offense and slowly bring Flacco’s confidence back. Bench him this week against Miami.

Roddy White
White deserves to be commended for trying to play through his ankle injury, but it’s clear that he is no where near 100 percent. Teams are shutting him down and the usual potent Falcons offense is stammering with hiccups throughout games. Until White can be the opposite threat that he was before his injury, the Falcons may experience more bumps in the road. Speed loss and the inability to run crisp routes is hurting White drastically. You have to sit him if you drafted wisely at the receiver position.

Ryan Mathews
A few years ago Matthews was drafted as a prime back. Tabbed by all fantasy experts as a must draftee in high rounds. The bust label soon flourished for Matthews as he could not stay on the field. San Diego has seemed to bypass the notion of Matthews being the feature back they once drafted him to be. Instead they’re running a comfortable pass happy offense that gets more with their backs in the passing game than it does on the ground. Mathews has never had great success against the Raiders, and that won’t change Sunday.

Alex Smith
Notice when Alex Smith was on the 49ers and they were winning who was praised on the 49ers; the defense. In four games as a Chief it’s the same thing; the defense. Smith is the new Jay Fiedler. A game manager who can win by doing the bare minimum. Sooner or later the defense can’t hold and a quarterback’s arm will be called into action. That week is now for Smith. Tennessee will get after him and get one pick six off of a jumped eight yard route this week.

Larry Fitzgerald
Fitz’s best years as a receiver are starting to look like a chapter that he would want to relive in a different uniform. Arizona still has the same plaguing issues surrounded to their offense. No identity for a running game and an offensive line that is questionable at best. Carson Palmer is finding that out the hard way. With defenses able to blitz and scheme to the Cardinals weaknesses it may be another long season or Fitz. He did get a few touchdowns week one but that was against the Rams poor defense. Last week the offense was held to zero points until a few gifts by rookie Mike Glennon sparked a few short drives that the Cardinals capitalized on. Those opportunities are going to diminish this week against a stout Panthers defense. Sit Fitz if you don’t want to be disappointed by a poor fantasy outing.

Others: TY Hilton, Daryl Richardson, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith, and Kenbrell Thompkins.

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Every football coach plans out his team’s first series plays in practice during the week. Why? Because it’s imperative to get off to a fast start and put points on the board. Preparation is critical, and can pay off in the form of coordinated offense in the first quarter.

Accordingly, predicting a team’s first quarter performance can provide you with a winning payout without suffering the various end-of-game pitfalls that lurk every week – turnovers, backdoor covers, missed field goals, overtime, and even coaching miscues.

If your goal is to beat the book (or offshores), you need to identify every opportunity to gain an edge. And each week, there are edges to be found in first quarter lines.

Consider Utah State. Last season, the Aggies were a team of overachievers in oddmakers’ eyes. They nearly defeated Wisconsin on the Badgers’ home field. But most teams do not surprise opponents by delivering fourth quarter comebacks week after week. Instead, they come out swinging. And Utah State came out swinging with strong, resounding starts every single week.

Utah State’s out-of-the-gate starts resulted in a supreme first quarter edge for bettors in 2012 – the Aggies never trailed once at the end of the first quarter. And defensively, Utah State was just as sharp – they never allowed more than a single field goal in the first quarter.

Over the course of its 13-game season, the combined prodigious total score of the Aggies compared to its first quarter opponents was an insane 138 to 9. But, based on the end result of many of their games, one might not have recognized this strong attribute of the 2012 Utah State Aggies.

There are places you can go to see this level of in-depth detail, such as sportsbook online sites like bovada.com. These will provide all the key lines you seek.

When considering a first quarter line, there are several variables to look at before you dive in.

First, unlike the end of the game, or the end of the half, a team’s sense of urgency is not critical at the end of the first quarter. Once the clock hits that minute-and-a-half mark, an NCAA coach will usually call a conservative run play or two in order to reduce the time left in the quarter.

That’s important to remember because you can be sure that teams are not going to go for a field goal or lob a Hail Mary pass into the end zone just because the quarter is coming to an end. In fact, a team may be gearing up for a traditional third-and-goal play or taking their time setting up to kick a field goal on fourth down. So if the play clock is under 40 seconds, you may as well consider the quarter over.

Knowing a team’s red zone percentage is also a key factor. If a team lacks the weapons to score a higher percentage of touchdowns to field goals, it may be wise to skip that game for a first quarter line.

There are plenty of collegiate teams that can get the ball inside their opponents’ 20-yard line but are unreliable when it comes to scoring TDs. Syracuse was a prime example of this last season. With Ryan Nassib at quarterback, the Orange moved the ball and scored a lot of points. Its touchdowns-to-field goal ratio was one of the reasons the Orange won a lot of close games. But, a closer look reveals that during all the first quarters in 2012, Syracuse had a total of 14 scoring drives and 10 of those were field goals while only four were TDs.

While it didn’t make its mark as a first quarter scoring team, Syracuse did a great job protecting the football. Turnovers are critical in all phases of the game, and they need to be appropriately taken into considerations for first quarter lines. Remember that odds are created to cover both sides of the spectrum from a potential bettor. The half-point is there, and you can be sure it will come into play.

With all the fast-paced offenses in college sports, time of possession has seemingly become a non-factor. But you can’t allow yourself to constrain your thinking when it comes to sides or totals. The opposing team will come prepared on game day with a plan to try to nullify their opponent’s strength.
Handicapping is all about percentages. A large percentage of wagers are on full-game odds. That is where the oddmakers make the bulk of their money. So use a contrarian mind and find cracks available in a first quarter line, where attention is neglected from a regular handicapper.

The net result of this strategy is simple: If you want to win, don’t limit yourself to just betting on complete-game action. Instead, find new angles and different edges throughout all the odds that are offered through bovada.com and at your local sportsbook.

Post Week Three NFL Team Rankings

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1. Denver Broncos- There is no question here. Denver has blown out teams since being down to Baltimore in the first half of week one.
2. Seattle Seahawks- Seattle is 3-0 but needs to show it can win handily on the road before bumping out Denver in the top spot.
3. New Orleans- If the defense can play as a top twelve to fifteen unit, this is a team no one wants to play in January
4. Chicago Bears- Trailing or even with a big lead the Bears have made things interesting. Chicago has jumped out to great regular season starts the last few seasons only to fizzle. The defense’s age could be a detriment past the midway point of the season.
5. Houston Texans- The Texans couldn’t put touchdowns on the board early against Baltimore and it came back to bite them. Add a pick six and a defensive touchdown and the game took a turn for the worse. Houston gets their hands full this weekend against the Seahawks.
6. New England- Yes they’re 3-0 but I still rank them behind the Texans for now. Their wins have come against the Jets, Bills, and Buccaneers. Not the best of opponents in which they did not dominate as teams ranked above them have.
7. Baltimore- A non-talked about display from Sunday was the dominance of the Ravens defense against Houston. The team was flying from sideline to sideline. I don’t care if it was Tom Brady behind center instead of Matt Schaub, there would have been similar results.
8. San Francisco- They’ve got some work to do but it is too early in the season to believe the defending NFC champs are going to cave under the current circumstances.
9. Atlanta- Falcons fans have no reason to worry. They just need to fix their woes inside opponents territory to gain touchdowns instead of field goals. The Falcons could easily be 3-0.
10. Kansas City- It’s going to take half the season for me to be a believer in this Chiefs team. They haven’t been truly threatened to rely on Alex Smith in the fourth quarter playing from behind. It’s bound to happen soon. I can envision a three to four game slide before the season’s all said and done.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
12. Green Bay Packers
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Dallas
15. Detroit Lions
16. Miami
17. Tennessee
18. San Diego Chargers
19. Philadelphia Eagles
20. Carolina Panthers
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. New York Jets
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
24. NY Giants
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Washington Redskins
27. St. Louis Rams
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Buffalo Bills
30. Minnesota Vikings
31. Oakland Raiders
32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Post Week Three Waiver Wire

Follow@cimini It’s time to scour those waiver wires. Bye weeks are upcoming and some of you might be in desperate situations for personnel. Take a peak on who to seek for your waiver wire deadlines this week.

Quarterbacks

Jake Locker Anytime you can be a threat with your legs as a quarterback you have a shot at being fantasy worthy. Locker’s arm is a whole different story but he outperformed many top tier quarterbacks Sunday with near 300 yards passing. His consistent fantasy threat will be with his legs. His creativity to scramble helped keep drives alive and opened up the passing game a bit. One Week Wonders: Geno Smith

Running Backs

Jonathan Franklin In a bizarre fate of Green Bay running backs the mystery of falling backs continues. I found it awfully weird how Franklin hardly received any carries in preseason, and had zero in the first two weeks and one quarter. Sunday that changed due to injury and Franklin made the most of his time on the field. Packers fans won’t be happy with his fumble but fantasy owners can only be pleased with his stats. Bilal Powell Powell had the biggest surprise day of any back. New York’s running game had been abysmal last year and to start this season. Powell though had a surge for the ground attack against the Bills, which allotted the Jets to use play action passes for some big plays. Now for Powell can he keep his legs churning week to week with a high amount of carries (27 Sunday)? LeGarrette Blount This isn’t an immediate waiver wire pickup. If you’re in a position to take a flier for potential, than Blount is an option to test for a few weeks. Stevan Ridley has hit a wall of sorts and the lack of rushing attack has been part of the blame for the Patriots lighter scoring performances. Blount did okay in fill in duty Sunday, and is just a few years removed from his breakout rookie campaign. Once Shane Vereen comes back though Blount’s share of the carries should diminish to where they were at the start of the season. Jacquizz Rodgers Atlanta’s had no problem moving the football. Their woes in scoring position have cost them two games that could have easily been decided with one extra touchdown. They’ll have to get that corrected either by advancing the running game or getting targets to the right people. Rodgers may see an increase in carries even with a healthy Steven Jackson, as the Falcons look for long term protection if they make the playoffs.

Tight Ends

Andrew Quarless Quarless is a familiar name in the fantasy football world as he has had to fill in before when Jermichael Finley went down a few seasons ago. Based on the severity of Finley’s concussion Quarless should see some field action once again. Keep on eye and see if Finley’s status is doubtful before picking up Quarless. A Packers tight end is an automatic upgrade if you do not have one of the top six to eight tight ends.

Wide Receivers

Sidney Rice Jacksonville’s secondary continued to be woeful Sunday and that led to Rice having a big day. Yardage is something we can tend to expect Rice to be fantasy worthy once in awhile. He seems to be healthier now and if he can find the end zone more frequently he can be a welcomed edition to fantasy rosters. Santonio Holmes Disregard Stephen Hill completely. If the Jets are going to keep throwing the football and have established success, it’ll come on the hands of Holmes. If Holmes is back to the capabilities the Jets expected of him when they signed him, than Hill can be a deeper league fantasy asset. One thing to love about Geno is he looks to throw the football down the field and take chances. Mohammed Sanu I’ve listed Sanu for a few weeks now and will continue to do so. He is underrated in an offense that has a lot of growing to do still this year. Sanu’s size makes him a prime target to continue to improve week to week and blossom for fantasy playoff weeks. He did have a key drop Sunday but had a solid day otherwise. Josh Gordon Gordon’s availability in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues likely had to do with his two game suspension. I would tab Gordon as a one week wonder except that he has shown enough even as a Brown to be fantasy worthy weekly. Minnesota had no answer for him Sunday as their secondary looked awful from start to finish. With rumors that the Browns are looking to deal Gordon, he could end up on a more prolific offense. Darius Heyward-Bey I’ve been impressed with Bey’s demeanor and the way he has handled his role as a Colt. Other first round picks told to have a smaller role on a new team might have fizzled and got themselves cut. Bey is the Colts second receiver and has taken considerable value away from TY Hilton as a fantasy receiver. Bey is showing to be more polished than the home run or bust tag he had in Oakland. Maybe Reggie Wayne is rubbing off on him. Kenbrell Thompkins Thompkins flourished for the Patriots in red zone packages as the Buccaneers seemed to blanket Edelman in that area. With Danny Amendola’s injury history it may still end up being up to Thompkins or Aaron Dobson to pick up the slack. Thompkins did it week three and may have gained the Brady trust for future games. Brandon LaFell LaFell’s been a cellar fantasy wide receiver. If he is on a fantasy team, he is likely on a fantasy team that has issues at wide receiver. Carolina’s offense has been up and down the last few years, but defeating the Giants could be the turn up they need. It seemed the Panthers allowed Newton to do some early designed runs. After that the offense seemed to pickup all around. LaFell has a golden opportunity with the decline of Steve Smith and a speed threat also on the field in Ted Ginn Jr. One Week Wonders: Donnie Avery

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College football can be a tricky sport to win a moneyline parlay in. I like to play one a week, and each week you should be able to re-calibrate and learn from a team wrongly inputted or one you left out that actually provides an upset. Here is my week four college moneyline parlay. If you risk $100 you can win right under 12,000.

*Long Shot- Central Michigan- Central Michigan is at home in this game and gets to face a Toledo team that I quite frankly believe is undisciplined and overrated. Central Michigan has not done themselves any favors early in the season, and are getting an extra touchdown’s worth of points than they should from a spread standpoint. Look for Toledo’s lingering issues offensively to keep Central Michigan in the game, and pull off an upset. I love the fact that last year Toledo played down to the level of their MAC opponents frequently.

* Two Touchdown Dogs- Hawaii and San Diego St
Oregon State has one thing working for them offensively and that is wide receiver Cooks. This game has kept trickling down from the original point spread for a reason. Oregon State is not the same strong team they were a year ago, and is vulnerable defensively. That’s putting too much pressure on the offense, that had to rescue the team in overtime a week ago. Hawaii faces a Nevada team that will likely start their third string quarterback. Nevada has been the least impressive football team even behind UNLV. Their pistol offense is not working and it’s crushing their defense in the second half when the team appears gassed and has been stampeded by Florida State and UCLA.

* Team to take plus the points- Utah State
I wanted to put Utah State as a straight up winner as soon as the lines came out. I’ve often found out that your first thoughts of action is the one that can destroy your parlay. I’ll go conservative and include Utah State plus the points. USC has improved slightly over the last few weeks but will be facing their strongest opponent of the year. This is the type of game that Chuckie Keeton needs to make himself a draft day selection in April. He’ll have his highlights but USC may get the close win. Try and get this spread at 7.

And there you have it, this parlay can net you right under $12,000. Even if your dialing up your own parlay and are looking for a play or two, hopefully one of these games will be to your benefit.

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• Hall of Fame caliber players store away poor performances in their memory banks. In 2010, the New Orleans Saints lost to an Arizona Cardinals team led by Max Hall. Hall an undrafted rookie that year is now a quarterback in the CFL . In 2010 the Saints were seven point favorites as they are this weekend. Brees had one of his worst games as a Saint in that game throwing three interceptions. All of Arizona’s three touchdowns came from defensive touchdowns. You can bet Brees is ready to flourish this Sunday at home to rid his mind of that performance.

• In August, the Patriots and Buccaneers chose to have practice scrimmages against each other before their preseason football game in week two. That was the scrimmage that brought on the Tom Brady scare with a minor injury to his knee. Josh Freeman hardly played in that preseason game but Tom Brady did and went 11 of 12 for 107 yards and a touchdown. Be cautious in assuming Brady and the Pats will bounce back big in their matchup against the Buccaneers.

• Last season the Chicago Bears averaged 35 points per game against the AFC. 41 in each game against the Colts and Jaguars, 51 against the Titans, and a low output of 6 points against the Texans. Their defense was tenacious in those four games, creating fifteen turnovers and scoring five defensive touchdowns.

• Chad Henne has put up some gaudy statistics in games that you would least expect him to do so. In 2011 he threw for over 400 yards against the New England Patriots. Last season as fifteen point underdogs, Henne threw for over 350 yards and four touchdowns in an overtime loss to the Houston Texans. Both games were his season’s best statistical performances.