Secret Up North

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Following a hectic few weeks post fantasy football, I’m back to deliver daily content. Everything now shifts to a quantum level in sports. Some may say it’s a down time but I beg to differ. College basketball offers up some of the premier highlights and recaps on a day to day basis. Comebacks, injuries, player issues, etc. all come to the forefront in conference play.

The NBA is a bit different but it has been for the last decade or when stability went awry amongst franchises. Development from the front offices seems to be without regard. Teams are pulling the plug on pieces worse than how NFL coaches get axed. Unlike the NFL, teams that have made drastic moves in the NBA have seen some success. Miami did it in an extreme way by grouping together megastars Chris Bosh and Lebron James. On a smaller scale teams like the Houston Rockets, Portland Trailblazers, OKC, and Memphis have done it with solid draft picks and adding high quality free agents that don’t break the bank.

This year’s team that has shocked many has been the Phoenix Suns. They’ve been steady for the first two and a half months of the season. Eric Bledsoe was their main acquisition in the offseason and he is proving to be worth every penny. Up north though there is a team that is cracking the relevant radar over their last eight games. That would be the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors had a strong west coast trip in which they narrowly defeated Portland, and upset Oklahoma City on their home court. That sparked a win streak of seven of eight games until last night’s loss to the Miami Heat. A game they hung neck and neck with the Heat for four full quarters but just couldn’t muster a better fourth quarter than the Heat.

No one could have seen the current stretch the Raptors are on coming. When the trade was announced to send Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings it figured to be the coup de grace to the Raptors 2013 NBA season. After all they had let Andrea Bargani, a key player for the Raptors, sign with the Knicks in the offseason. Plans to build for the future seemed to be the main signal from the front office.

Instead it has allowed the team to play better team basketball, as Rudy Gay isn’t taking the bulk of shots on the offensive end. Kyle Lowry, Demar Derozen, and Terrence Ross have been stellar. But the key player to their team has been Amir Johnson.

He isn’t the go to guy offensively every night, which means he may be the forgotten one on the scouting report. Last season he showed flashes but this season he is looking more like an NBA starter on a nightly basis. He is aggressive in a good way on the offensive end of the court. Using his foot speed and nimbleness he is becoming one of the better interior scorers in the NBA.

He is one of those players that does his best with an adequate amount of shot attempts. Around eight to ten a night suits him well. For a fantasy basketball team I’d consider trading for Johnson. He has more upside to come as he seems to be hitting that time frame in a young athletes career where more blossoming occurs. Remember, Johnson was the last player drafted out of high school. Even though his career tenure in the NBA is listed at eight seasons, the first four were spent honing his skills as a Detroit Piston.

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Yesterday I profiled some things to take from the results of NFL week sixteen’s Sunday games. Tonight we will look at what happened in the world of hoops, and how cash either landed in your pockets or didn’t.

Favorites Ruled Once Again in College Hoops-
This has been a common theme in the early start of the season in college hoops. Unfortunately conference play has yet to begin. That means the winnings some of you are landing now are going to wane fairly fast in about a month. Oddmakers do a much better job from January through the tournament on putting out the right number. Monday though, several heavy favorites covered with ease. Teams such as Cincinnati, UNLV, Boise St, and Iowa State smashed their opponents as well as the line.

NBA News and Notes from Monday’s action-

OUCH I SHOULD NOT HAVE PUT MY MONEY THERE-
Media teams are always prone for heavy money flowing on their side. Probably no team is more hyped for the proper reasons than the Miami Heat. The bad thing with that is the NBA is a long drawn out season. You have to be careful in the spots that you play the Heat. Monday they saved tons of bettors that likely bet heavy on the moneyline on them but did not come close to toppling the line.

Indiana appears to be back on the winning track not only in the win column but in ATS as well. They’re becoming a favorable predictable team depending on the matchup. Size and defense are still their strength, but the biggest difference is their growth as a team in half court offense. Earlier this season the Nets fought tough against the Pacers in a game that was a hotly contested matchup for four quarters. That was not the case tonight as the Pacers ripped apart the soul searching Nets, and delivered one of the easiest winners of the night.

EASY MONEY–
THE EASIEST MONEY PLAY OF NBA ACTION HANDILY WENT TO THE PHOENIX SUNS OVER THE LA LAKERS. THE LAKERS APPEAR ON THE VERGE OF A SHAKE DOWN THAT EXPERTS AND ANALYSTS THOUGHT WOULD HAVE SURFACED TO START THE SEASON. TOO MANY INJURIES AND FORMER FIRST ROUND PICKS THAT ARE ROLE PLAYERS ARE MAKING THINGS MISERABLE FOR THE HOLLYWOOD SHOWBOATING COURTSIDE TICKET FANS.

TREND IT UP–
MONDAY WAS THE NIGHT OF NBA OVERS, AS NINE OF THE ELEVEN GAMES IN ACTION TOPPLED THE OVER/UNDER. EVEN THE BOBCATS/BUCKS DID AS THE LOWEST TOTAL OF THE NIGHT. IT IS FUNNY HOW THAT WORKS OUT, BUT ONE OF THE UNDERS CAME BY A WIDE MARGIN IN THE WARRIORS/NUGGETS.

HOW DO THEY DO IT–
SAN ANTONIO WAS ANOTHER POPULAR MONDAY FAVORITE. SAN ANTONIO DID WHAT THEY TYPICALLY DO, AND THAT IS FIND A WAY TO COVER A LARGE NUMBER. TORONTO WAS COMING OFF AN UPSET WIN IN OKC SUNDAY, SO SHARKS/PUBLIC HAD THEIR EYES ON THIS ONE. GIVE TORONTO CREDIT AS THEY PLAYED HARD AND STAGED ONE LAST COMEBACK EFFORT IN THE FOURTH THAT APPEARED TO BE ENOUGH TO COLLAPSE THE MONEYSIDE OF THE SPURS. IN THE END THE SPURS HIT A FEW TIMELY THREE POINTERS INCLUDING ONE BY DANNY GREEN AND EASY BUCKETS DOWN THE STRETCH THAT REPATCHED AND SOLIDIFIED THE COVER.

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The fantasy football playoffs have concluded in the majority of leagues. Another area I like to focus on is analyzing the world of sports from a handicapping perspective. No sport is harder to gain a crucial pivotal edge on the books from a week to week basis than in the NFL. To succeed you need to pick your spots carefully. Here are some lessons learned from week 16.

Division Opponents Should Never Be Taken Lightly-
High lines to the favorite did not bode well. Dallas was just a field goal favorite but needed a valiant effort to keep the media off their backs for at least another week. Nonetheless they did not cover. The other shocker came with the Seattle Seahawks. Not that they didn’t cover, but that they lost outright at home. This was one of those games that the Seahawks finally surrendered via a poor offensive outing. There have been other games this season where they’ve been bailed out with late game heroics. Lastly, the Dolphins became the enemy of their own fate yet again. A shot at the playoffs seems slim thanks to their second loss to the Bills at the hands of quarterback Thad Lewis. With that performance Miami may have done themselves a favor to save embarrassment of a blowout wildcard loss.

Backdoors Always Rear Their Heads-
Those that had the San Diego Chargers minus the points should take the week off from any wagers. It was a win that you should have never won. But in sports this type of scenario always rears its head for the good and the bad. Oakland hung around this game and played to the number better than San Diego did. Marcell Reece gave all Chargers bettors an early Christmas present.

Totals stay Trendy-
Play the over, play the over, whoops week sixteen divided that thought to a high percentage of unders. It’s been a trend of game to game flow depending on the week. Much like the bowl games that started Saturday the over on a game always looks like your best friend. Week sixteen proved that the notion to seek consistent overs is still situational depending on the matchup.

Special Teams Negated-
Special teams typically can be a main factor in a handful of games on Sunday. This week however special teams were quiet in terms of punt returns or kickoff returns. Don’t have amnesia to discount special teams in week 17 and the NFL playoffs.

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Weighing all aspects of gaining an advantage in handicapping is premium to a seasons percentages. The platform for supposed handicapping sharks is to run the gamut with live betting, first quarter action and of course full game action. Many will also try to get their hands on second half action. Plethora of reasons could be involved. True logic based on what you have seen, offsetting a full game wager, and the notion this article is about involving second half teams.

College basketball is truly a game of two halves. A team can come out unfocused with poor shot selection and beleaguered reactions to a team coming out with more energy. Time and time again you will witness a team down by double digits at halftime only to turn it around in the first five minutes of the second half.

To a person that did not witness the game the final score would not resemble the battle the winning team truly had.

Coaches play the biggest factor in my mind in college basketball than any other sport. They battle the ups and downs of their team in all four phases of a college season up to March Madness. On the fly they have to make the necessary adjustments to give their team a premium chance of winning.

This season alone Jay Wright of Villanova made the astute but daring move to bench his senior Jayvaughn Pinkston against Iowa. Pinkston leads the team in points per game, but while on the floor Iowa surged to double digit leads for the majority of the game. With Pinkston on the bench Villanova was quicker on both ends of the floor for Iowa. It led to tenacious defense and open shooters on the offensive end. Over the final nine minutes and overtime the Wildcats made nine three pointers.

That was a necessary adjustment by coach Jay Wright that led to a tournament title in the Battle 4 Atlantis which ultimately boosts a teams camaraderie and morale.

A key number in second half lines for handicappers has to factor in top tier head coaches. They’ll make the necessary adjustments and explain it in harsh words behind locker room doors at halftime. Jim Boeheim and Syracuse have done this time and time again with his patented zone defense. Cracks exposed by a hot shooter or ball movement will be countered by the Orange. This has led to countless second half stretches where teams will go five, seven, and even nine minutes plus without a basket.

Other keys to look out for are great full court pressure teams. Coaches that sense their team needs a spark will implement their full court press to ignite a struggling half court offense. Perhaps the best team at this has been Louisville. That was with Peyton Siva and Russ Smith paired together. Its been a work in progress to start the year but Chris Jones should be able to partner with Smith to create the typical havoc of a press Louisville defense.

Before you rush to login on your favorite online sportsbook or to the ticket window at your state casino sportsbook, keep in mind these factors. The reactionary first half impulse second half moves will lead to an unnecessary downfall and losses.

Follow me on twitter @cimini or email me on any fantasy sports or handicapping related questions at notjustagame23@gmail.com

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From here on out the waiver wire edition will primarily be to those in your fantasy football playoffs. That makes it even more vital to pay attention to matchups and seek advantages for one time use. Of course there is still opportunity in extended nfl.com and yahoo.com for folks when the real NFL playoffs start.

Here is a look at fantasy football players to pickup after week fourteen.

Da’Rick Rodgers-It has taken awhile for someone to emerge besides TY Hilton on the Colts roster. After Rodgers big game against the Bengals it appears that the Colts have found their guy. This is a short term buy that won’t have any long term value.

Marcel Reece- Either direction the Raiders head next year at quarterback, they have to be elated at what their backfield has been able to do this season. From Darren McFadden, Rashad Jennings, and now Marcel Reece they have all enjoyed solid success. Reece’s carries all depend on the status of injured backs Jennings and McFadden.

Rod Streater- Oakland is not going to have a quarterback that puts up gaudy stats with his arm on a week to week basis. What they do have is underrated fantasy football wideouts. One of them is Streater, who has had a great ratio of 100 yard games for the amount of passing yards his quarterbacks have had.

Julian Edelman- Depending on your league search for Edelman off waivers. If he is taken look to pickup the next best available Patriot wide receiver off of waivers. New England struggled to develop at tight end without Rob Gronkowski earlier in the year. To make up for it they used more packages at wide receiver. Expect the same throughout the rest of this season.

Daniel Thomas- Who would of thought that an underachieving running back would finally get his act together with an offensive line aching for bodies? Thomas has taken on the role of feature back well and it surmised in his first 100 yard effort in quite some time.

Charles Clay- Perhaps no team has dealt with injuries or suspensions better than the Dolphins. Their patched offensive line has held up well and without tight end Dustin Keller they’ve utilized Charles Clay out of the backfield. Quietly he is putting up solid tight end stats. His best effort came this past week against the Steelers.

Shonne Greene- Even in years past as a NY Jet this would be the time of year that Greene would start to warm up. He is a big physical cold weather back. If the Titans can keep scoring above 20 points a game, Greene has true playoff sleeper value.

Toby Gerhart- Chances are the Vikings will decide to rest Adrian Peterson for the remainder of the season following his minor foot sprain. There is no reason to risk further damage to a guy that has battled back from a devastating knee injury. Gerhart would then be one of the few sole feature backs in the NFL, making him one of the hottest waiver wire pickups of the week.

Follow@cimini It’s turkey day time and with that comes three NFL games. Tinkering with your fantasy starting lineups on Sunday just became that much harder. You have to be ready now with proper automatic starters/don’t do its for week thirteen. Automatics Tony Romo Stats are glaring when it comes to NFL secondary’s. Disguising a scheme for a team that can’t cover is near impossible. Each and every week Oakland’s secondary rears its head as a consistent defense that yields high yardage. Put in Romo on Thanksgiving to give your team a high teen to low twenty quarterback fantasy output. Carson Palmer It looks as if Bruce Arians has translated the second half of the season success he had in Indianapolis to the Arizona Cardinals. One of the brightest offensive minds in football has finally honed in Carson. Over the years with confidence behind him Palmer has shown to be a viable fantasy quarterback. Look for the Cardinals offense to continue to strike with efficiency this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. MJD Jacksonville has two more wins than most would have envisioned at this point of the season. The team has bought into Gus Bradley’s mentality defensively, which has made games much more manageable. Offensively the team has a fighting chance each game with Chad Henne under center. He has done a nice job running the offense with MJD out of the backfield or direct handoffs. Others: EJ Manuel, Ben Tate, Jared Cook, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Anquan Boldin, and Marques Colston Don’t Do Its Russ Wilson Typically personnel moves tend to lead to a public perception that creates an overwhelming incorrect reaction. With this matter involving the Seahawks secondary I believe for once you can side with the turn of events. Seattle has the record of achievement but has not been the dominant team it was a year ago at this time with less wins. Defensively they’ve been a shell of what they were a year ago and that has impacted the offense. Expect New Orleans to develop proper blitzes to attack Russ Wilson and company. Remember this is the same Saints team that suffered a mind boggling playoff exit to the 7-9 Seahawks a few years back. That still burns deep with the players remaining on the Saints roster. Philip Rivers Teams with physical defenses are the ones that the San Diego Chargers struggle against. Not often this year have the Chargers faced a team of the caliber of a Bengals defense. That should disrupt the short passing attack that the Chargers have in place. Philip has been error free for the most part this season but I wouldn’t be surprised to see his highest interception game of the season this week. DeSean Jackson For all the success the Eagles have had as of late, their season is still on the edge of the cliff of faltering. I expect that to happen this Sunday on their home field against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona doesn’t get any primetime television exposure. Quietly though they boast one of the best defenses in football. They have the secondary and front seven to finally get Nick Foles to turn the football over. Others: Steven Jackson, Pierre Garcon, RG3, Peyton Manning, Antonio Brown, and Frank Gore