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Dennis Green made infamous comments and statements in a post game press conference after the Arizona Cardinals blew a big lead against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night football. It was a disaster lesson for many bettors that had the Cardinals that night. The loss has faded to distant memories for most people but one that has stood out year after year is Green’s comment, “They are who we thought they were”.

As you get ready to finalize your office pool brackets, head to the sports book counter, or whatever type of wager you plan, keep Dennis Green’s comments in mind.

Do not over project a team because you think they can go on a Butler, George Mason, Wichita State, or VCU run. Historically runs like that just don’t happen and if they do that don’t come from teams in the power conferences. Just like the teams noted, it’ll come from a mid-major.

Yet time and time again people will pull the head scratcher maneuver and have an under performing 8/9 seed making an epic tourney run. They may have been ranked highly at one time during the season but there are 30-plus games from the regular season that should provide you with clarification on where to go with those teams. Logically it doesn’t make sense to have them going beyond the sweet 16.

Here are teams that you should avoid making a mistake with. Your online brackets aren’t hidden from your buddies. As soon as those games start Thursday your bracket will be viewable to everyone. Don’t be that guy/gal to have their brackets crushed before the round of 32.

Oklahoma State
This OK State team was beyond the bubble watch just about two to three weeks ago. After Marcus Smart returned from suspension though the Cowboys finished the season strong led by Smart. Predicting this former top ten team to advance far is likely going to be the option from several people as a dark horse contender. Sure they were rated in the top ten but they were over ranked. This team lives by their back court of Markel Brown and Marcus Smart. The big twelve style of play favored the Cowboys in thriving with free flow offense. In the tournament though that should halt as teams will force Smart into difficult shots. It’s already documented that Smart gets rattled easily if he is having an off-game.

VCU
Shaka Smart’s VCU team has that mid-major brand name favorite from their success as a play-in 11th seed to the Elite 8. Their run that year made the Vegas books and offshore books quite nervous. One trademark Shaka Smart coaching maneuver remains with his high octane press. What isn’t there is the same caliber of depth and high percentage shooters. VCU lacks the size in the middle to play sound defense around the basket. They also are a woeful team with their half court offense often producing wild three pointers or poor floaters in the lane by their guards. They thrive off of two things. Turnovers from their press and offensive rebound putbacks from their athletic forwards. They may have the seeding to make you ponder tabbing them as a threat but don’t do it.

North Carolina
Towards the end of the regular season North Carolina creeped back up in the ACC standings. They somehow ended up as one of the fourth ranked team in the conference. Coach Roy Williams deserves a ton of credit from rescuing this North Carolina team when they were 11-7 January 20th. I’m not a full believer that they’re capable of getting beyond even their first round game against Providence. The ACC was a top heavy conference that provided great stretches of wins for the top half of the league. Watching the Tar Heels they just look like they’re a player or even two away from being a highly qualified tournament team. They are also one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the tournament.

Kentucky
The Wildcats raised eyebrows just a teensy bit with the way they played in the SEC tournament. Wait, how many teams from the SEC are in the tournament? 3, and one is a play-in game team in Tennessee. The conference was down undoubtedly and likely has cast a perception of this Kentucky team that is unwarranted. Tournament teams will give this inexperienced Kentucky team fits. Their seasons worth a games in the SEC is comparable to playing a non-conference schedule in the ACC, Big Ten, and other power conferences.

Others: San Diego State, Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Michigan, and UMass

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Before their recent four game win streak the Atlanta Hawks were on a pitiful losing streak of fourteen out of fifteen games. To say their recent win streak is a surprise is an understatement. Their latest win came with last night’s dominating road win at Charlotte.

Tonight the Raptors travel down to Atlanta off of a game days rest unlike Atlanta. The line currently sits at 2.5 and I believe there to be value here on the Raptors. Toronto is coming off a physical home loss to the Phoenix Suns and which they uncharacteristically stopped playing team basketball offensively and played to the Suns hand defensively.

Even during their four game win streak the Hawks have had noticeable flaws. Their guards are inept at making quality shots besides Kyle Korver. Off the bench Atlanta does not have quality substitutes to warrant the increase of minutes for a team playing a back to back.

Shelvin Mack, Mike Scott, Dennis Schroader, and old man Elton Brand have to be the weakest quartet tandem in the NBA as a bench group.

There are certain nights when the Hawks can play sound defense and live off their bread and butter big man in Paul Millsap to carry them to a victory. He did so last night against Charlotte shooting 12 for 20 and the Hawks held the Bobcats in the low 80’s.

But the other three wins by the Hawks need to be evaluated properly. The Bucks and Jazz are two of the worst teams in the NBA and Denver is a freelance team that plays as sporadic as any team.

Look for the Raptors to have a sound combination of defense in the paint to halt Millsap slightly and to get their own shots with ease on the offensive end. The key like I stated earlier will be the unproductive minutes the Hawks bench receives tonight coming off a back to back.

George Washington Tournament Sleeper

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Of the smaller mid major conferences that see a team advance in the round of 68 it typically ends up being a surprise team. The elite in the conference falter early while a mid-tier team from the conference excels. It’s strange how that works out but has proven to be the case time and time again. I myself was quite shocked to see the extreme love for the A-10 by the committee. But it does have some solid teams.

With the weakness of several conferences this year it was expected to see a conference or two get more bids and that is exactly what happened for the Atlantic 10. People know the VCU’s and UMass’s of the conference. I do not expect either of those teams to make it past the first round and if they do not beyond the next round.

A team that I do expect to make some noise is George Washington. Now they did not particularly finish the A-10 season or conference tournament strong but they did have a relative strong season in-conference.

They have the balance from all roster positions that represent a quality tournament team. Heady guard play with Maurice Creek the former Indiana Hoosier and newly returned from injury guard Kethan Savage. He did not play much against VCU but looked recovered from a leg injury sustained mid-season. George Washington also gets steady play from Argentinian, Patricio Garino. He is the glue of the team. When he is performing well the team can typically sustain leads.

A role player is always key and George Washington also has that with sharpshooter Nimanja Mikic. His minutes are used for one thing and that is spreading the floor and knocking down three pointers.

Where the main difference lies with George Washington is their interior. They have a solid foundation with former Villanova big man in Isiah Armwood who is paired with Kevin Larsen. These two are going to have an advantage right off the bat against a Memphis team that lacks size.

If George Washington wants to play spoiler they will have to correct two issues that VCU has torched them with. One is their inability to knock down free throws. In the second matchup against VCU they only shot above 60 percent on free throws. In the second half of their conference tournament semifinal loss to VCU they missed eight straight crucial free throws during a dry spell of made baskets. The other area VCU killed them in was turnovers but that has been the case for a lot of teams that have faced VCU.

The NCAA tournament has always been about matchups and I believe George Washington is setup nicely to get to the sweet 16 if they play to their strengths. Team basketball, limit their turnovers, and play sound defense. To start the tournament they have a great matchup against Memphis. A team that has an 8th seed solely based on two wins against Louisville. If it were not for those two wins they likely would have been a borderline tournament team or an 11th/12th seed.

I expect GW to get past Memphis and the next matchup would be likely against Virginia. A strong team but one that George Washington can surprise and upset in the round of 32. The ACC has shown all year that their top teams are susceptible on any given night; Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia. The reason why is because all can go through their offensive funks and rely heavily offensively on a couple of players. A strong all around team like George Washington can knock off Virginia.

Look for GW to play spoiler this NCAA tournament.

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What’s going on in Oklahoma City? There are several non-spotlighted factors keying to their latest slide. Kevin Durant is out there trying to be like Lebron James was with the Cleveland Cavliers. His cast just isn’t as strong as it should be, especially when Russ Westbrook has to rest. It may all change and prove to be a key move once the playoffs start but I’m not as optimistic.

They have voids offensively and defensively with too many role players. They’ve tried using Jeremy Lamb, Pittsburgh rookie Adams, and Perry Jones as heavy rotation minute guys. They’ve shown some spurts of capability but they are not ready for the big stage. Serge Ibaka’s offensive skill set has grown immensely. His vast improvement seems to be casting an unnecessary amount of jump shots to his nightly repertoire. He needs to get in the paint more for the easy shots and not be as much of a jump shooter as Kevin Durant.

With that being said the Thunder travel to Chicago as 2.5 point favorites. I’d have to side with the Bulls here as a free play. I just don’t see the Thunder attacking the basket enough against a defensive minded Bulls team that usually handles the battle in the paint extremely well.

Friday Night NBA Free Total

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Brad Stevens has to be happy with the way his Celtics have played as of late, but even more happier with Rajon Rondo. Rondo seems to be playing freer on a team with zero expectations. That hasn’t stopped him from being the natural facilitator that he is. Teammates of his that would normally be nothing more than subpar as starters have been lifted by his play.

From the Phoenix Suns standpoint they continue to defy NBA experts and GM’s of the former teams of players such as Miles Plumlee, Gerald Green, PJ Tucker, Goron Dragic, and even Eric Bledsoe. You could of argued for a stretch that is was a mirage but the season is nearing completion.

With Eric Bledsoe back and the Suns normal pace of play this line is set at 208 points. Usually that’s a solid total to scream at taking the over on Phoenix. To me though there are two reasons to take the under here, one is that the Suns have looked a bit tired over there last couple of games. Their pace of play added onto a dictated schedule seems to have finally worn their legs down a bit.

With wins mattering more down the stretch I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jeff Hornacek slow the pace down intermittently. From Boston’s standpoint they’re just not a high percentage shooting team. They were able to do it for a few games over the past few weeks but that is definitely not typical of the Celtics this season.

Take the under here.

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Tonight in the NBA two teams that have no shot at reaching the playoffs square off in Milwaukee as the Bucks face the New Orleans Pelicans.

Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in defense and even though the Pelicans have a great enforcer in Anthony Davis, they’re not near being a solid defensive team.

This game is sure to draw more attraction on the under for several reasons. If you’ve seen these two teams play this season, you’ve likely seen blowout affairs against either team. Blowout losses though can be misleading. The attraction to see the losing team only score in the mid 80’s or low 90’s will give you a false impression of a team’s ability to score. Naturally a team that is getting thrashed is going to take poor shots and is going to face abnormal substitutions as the coach maneuvers players in and out of the lineup.

Lately Milwaukee has been able to put up points, including 114 in a recent game versus Utah. This is a game that both teams believe they can win, and to do so they’ll need offensive execution over depending on their porous defense.

Shoot for the over on this one tonight in Milwaukee.