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As of late the Chicago Bulls have been as erratic as can be for a team about to enter the playoffs. They lost badly to the Knicks a few nights ago and had to fight off a depleted Orlando Magic team just the other night. Two days ago I delivered on a free play winner right here with the Grizzlies over the Suns. The stakes in that game were the last seed in the Western Conference. The line crept higher and higher on Phoenix as bettors were attracted to the home court edge + the stakes.

Often times those are spots to reward yourself as a contrarian against the masses. Today should prove to be the same against a Bobcats team that I’ve been extremely disappointed in to conclude the season. It’s no secret they lack a true center. Opposing teams are able to get offensive rebounds at will and attack the interior with post-play or guards driving to the hoop.

Their strength had been perimeter defense and team ball on the offensive end of the court. Besides Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker this team as a whole has fallen on both ends of the court. Things could change but facing a Bulls team that has not exactly lived up to their solid play of around a month ago is going to prove to be a challenge.

The stakes factor is that the Bobcats could potentially swap spots with the Wizards and get a better playoff draw with a win and Wizards loss. Play against that notion and play the Bulls moneyline or +1.

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You can just about glorify tonight’s Nuggets/Clippers game as a preseason type of game. It’s going to be played like a scrimmage. Oddmakers in Vegas posted the total initially at 220. Currently the line has shifted down just a smidge to 219.

This coming from the Clippers who are locked in one of the top seeds in the West and the Nuggets who have been long gone from the playoffs. From the Clippers standpoint they’ll just be looking to keep their rhythm intact as the playoffs are just about here. On Denver’s side they’ll play short handed once again. Brian Shaw has to be pleased the way his bench players have played, as they’ve remained competitive and are scoring in bunches.

These are two teams that even in a meaningful game a 220 line would be worth money on. In this position I see it even more advantageous. The Clippers are a willing team on team on the defensive end of the court because they know they’re going to score on the other end. I’d expect both teams to have at least one quarter of high 30’s to low 40 point scoring.

Score on tonight’s late game and play the over.

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Media and sports bettors get drawn to decisive games. Tonight the Grizzlies and Suns square off for in all likelihood the 8th seed in the West. With the Grizzlies up a game on the Suns, this puts the Suns in a must-win situation. This point spread opened up at -2.5 and now sits at -3. Before game time it may even creep up another half point.

Bettors are assuming that Phoenix will get the job done, and overlooking this veteran laden Memphis team. On the year already the Grizzlies have won all three games against the Suns. “Memphis is not a good matchup for us,” Dragic said. “They have a lot of big guys under the rim and they attack the paint, Dragic said in their last loss to the Grizzlies.

There are just certain teams that are nightmares to play against, and Memphis is that team for Phoenix. The Grizzlies have played well against all the run and gun teams this year, such as Portland, Phoenix, and Houston. They know how to slow the game down to their liking and prevent four quarters of frenetic play.

There just aren’t many teams in the NBA that can dictate pace like the Grizzlies. Phoenix has had a great season but looks like they’re going to come up just short. By letting leads slip away against Dallas and San Antonio recently, the Suns put themselves in this bad spot.

Look for Memphis to control this game early and win in Phoenix tonight.

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Tonight’s game in Washington features the hometown Wizards against the Charlotte Bobcats. The line has held steady at 5.5 points on the Wizards. These are two teams that have talent but are unpredictable due to the youth of their lineups.

Both of these teams are coming off of three days rest which is why this line is as steep as it is. While some may see this as advantageous for the home team, I believe the value is on the underdog Bobcats.

Washington has looked lethargic as a group especially offensively. They’ve had severe droughts in scoring against the Kings, Bulls, and Knicks. Chemistry just seems out of sync.

They won’t roll over at home but I’d expect a low scoring first half that favors the defensive minded Bobcats. The Wizards have the better talent but are playing similar to the Pacers on the offensive end currently.

Grab the Bobcats tonight for high value of 5.5 points.

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Squaring off tonight are the 40-1 Kentucky Wildcats vs the 100-1 UConn Huskies. Two proud fan bases that surely put a little money on their teams when seedings were announced. Both teams had their lumps throughout the regular season but were top 15 teams at certain times this season. It just goes to show a team can get hot at the right time, or have the right matchups.

Kentucky is the favorite here but has not been as dominant as the UConn Huskies have been in the tournament. Besides UConn’s first tournament game against St. Joseph’s, they’ve held their ground against Villanova, Michigan State, Iowa State, and Florida. While Kentucky has used their athleticism and let heroics by Aaron Harrison to stay alive.

In a two day window to prepare for the tournament I’d expect Kentucky to stick to their tournament game plan. Utilize their talent and try to wear teams down with it. Against UConn they’ll have a clear advantage inside, but that hasn’t made a difference thus far against the Huskies.

As for the total I like it to go over 135. Kentucky’s defense has not been stellar in the tournament, and they will give up open looks. On the Huskies defensive side of things the talent edge they’ve had on the perimeter with their backcourt will be dwindled here. Kentucky’s guards and forwards should continue to shine with their shooting and leaping ability.

Turnovers and free throws are always a bench mark when taking a total. Kentucky will turn the ball over. Facing a UConn team that has had tough guard play should give the Huskies an advantage in points off turnovers. From the free throw line I’d expect each team to get 20 to 25 free throws each.

Play the over

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The San Antonio Spurs captured their 19th straight win last night, with a dazzling performance over the Golden State Warriors. It’s a continuous yearly theme for the Spurs that does not skip a beat. Last season the anticipated matchup of the Spurs and Thunder hit a snag when Russ Westbrook’s knee injury occurred. Tonight’s game should have a feel of a Western Conference finals matchup. Lets take a look at it from a point spread standpoint.

Oddmaker’s opened the line in favor of the Thunder at -4. A generous amount of points considering how hot the Spurs have been. Top tier teams in the western conference have been tough to beat at home, and the Thunder are definitely one of the elite. An important element to consider with the Spurs is how poor they were a season ago in back to back games. A main reason that occurred was because of Coach Poppovich’s strategy in reducing or resting his players.

I would not be surprised to see Poppovich pull that type of manuever tonight as he could careless about an early April victory. His eyes and his team’s are on what will be done playoff time. On the Thunder’s side of things they want to get the upper hand at home and do so in front of a nationally televised game.

Play the Thunder tonight at minus four.