Danny Green is replicating his 2013 hot start in the Finals. Will he cool off like a year ago?

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One of the biggest mistakes sports bettors make is assuming. This team can’t lose again, or it’s going to be a blowout after what happened to them last game. Settings do change, as game four is yet another high stakes NBA Finals game.

But a 5.5 point spread is too many in my estimation. What we just saw a bit over 24 hours ago, is the same product producing an extra point to point and a half on the spread. Is there reason for this? The only reason is that Vegas and bettors are assuming the Heat are going to respond in blowout fashion. They have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation. A loss means they had to San Antonio in an elimination game five matchup.

What bettors should be thinking is that this is a golden opportunity to play the points. I gave out a premium play on the over in game three, and for game four I’m giving out a free play on the Spurs.

It’s a simple tactic in handicapping. What you see is what you get. Don’t assume, go off of results.

San Antonio has the arsenal to adjust on the fly. Early in the series the Heat made it a focus to shut down Tony Parker. It worked, so San Antonio shifted to their big man Tim Duncan. San Antonio shifted again to perimeter offense with the likes of Manu Ginobli, Patty Mills, and Danny Green. That still hasn’t been relegated. Heading into game four we still don’t know if the Heat have a new answer for Kawhi Leonard.

Any type of adjustment the Heat make the Spurs can counter it with more offense.

The bottom line is any Heat wins are going to be close in this series. They truly have to win a game down to the wire to out duel this Spurs team. It’s how they won a championship a year ago against the Spurs.

San Antonio is too experienced and well rounded of a team to be offered 5.5 points.

Take the points and you’ll be breathing easily going into halftime, unlike bettors with money on Miami.

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A summer goes by quick. Football fanatics consider this season their restless time period. Reading up on daily information for fantasy football drafts can only feed their football needs for so long. Trash talking fills the void for a few weeks and then preseason football finally takes over.

One area that can be a temporary look ahead for die-hard football fans is the week one odds that are already out.

It’s crazy to consider that you could place a bet on an NFL game three months from now. But in Las Vegas there are many people that will head to the ticket window and place a bet now. Some are locals that consider the line value worthy of a bet now. Others are tourists in town and figure they’ll make a return trip down the road to possibly cash out.

I’ve never been one to look ahead on lines because of sudden injuries and lackluster performances from teams of a year ago. But this year may be different. A lot of NFL teams haven’t changed the nucleus of their teams as in years past. Many coaches remain and the format is there to anticipate possible line value.

Here are just a few games that I believe there lies value on in week one.

St. Louis Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
This current line sits at -6 in favor of the St. Louis Rams. Teams that looked awful to conclude seasons typically roll that over into the next. Minnesota was one of the worst teams to finish out the second half of the year. Part of that had to do with their unsettling situation at quarterback. Freeman-Ponder-Cassel. None proved to be worthy of the starting job. Thus the Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater to hopefully solidify their quarterback issues. St. Louis on the other hand started to look like a true contender to be reckoned with as the season waned. Especially at home where they blew out teams such as the Bears and Colts. Jeff Fisher has this team primed to excel. Who knows who the Vikings will roll out as starter week one.

One can assume that it will be Matt Cassel. Veterans with average talent tend to struggle looking over their shoulder. That will be the case for Cassel as his days as starter will be numbered for Bridgewater. With a new coaching staff most players will be on a short leash. There just is too many roster moves the Vikings will be overhauling while the Rams have their teams intact.

Total San Diego vs Arizona of 44.5
Last year San Diego was one of the dreadful teams to watch offensively. They had a methodical way of doing things that sometimes won games and others caused problems. Due to the NFL’s high rate of scoring this line is basically at the median average. Simple enough to likely not attract eyes in June or July. Being formerly from Arizona I know enough about this Cardinals team to know they are a slow starting team.

Both of these teams have sound defenses, and veteran offenses. That should equate to simplistic offense in hopes of winning the game in the fourth quarter. One should know not to trust either Carson Palmer or Philip Rivers in September. This game should have the biggest shift in opening spread differential to gameday.

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It’s no secret that the Miami Marlins are a poor road team. As it stands they are currently 11-19 on the road. So a justified line against Texas today stands as a +130 dog. A solid price for an underdog of the Marlins caliber, and maybe too high to take the bait for a favorite in Texas.

This is the Marlins third away stand on their current trip. The first occurred in their home state of Florida. A series sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays. Their latest was a dreadful trip to Chicago in which they only won one game.

The young bats of the Marlins that were red hot against the Rays started to hit the wall. Several strikeouts occurred in that away stand.

The rest in between series should be enough to calm the minds of the young athletes of the Marlins. Tommy Koehler has stepped up as of late to take in the reigns for the Marlins as Fernandez went down and Hector Alvarez has returned.

Look for Koehler to pitch well tonight and the Marlins bats to come back to life.

If you’re looking for an underdog payout the Marlins are your best bet of the day.

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The 49ers were supposed to be the team to represent the NFC in many football fans minds last season. They came close but could not supplant their divisional rivals in the Seattle Seahawks. As division foes the stage is set for Russ Wilson and Colin Kaepernick to face each other for many years.

Seattle designed the perfect system to keep Russ Wilson’s inexperience an actual advantage for him. Designing basic scrambles and creative rollouts allotted for Wilson to have the comfortability he needed. Sometimes it looked like total chaos seeing Wilson take off, but in the end it worked.

Pete Carroll and his staff had a basic offense in which the personnel understood their roles. San Francisco had the same formula as the Seahawks defensively but lacked the consistency offensively. That largely revolved around the 49ers not knowing how they wanted to use Colin Kaepernick. Their game plan for Kaepernick seemed to let him evolve as a pocket passing quarterback. Opposite of what Russ Wilson did freelancing as a runner, Kaepernick hardly tucked the football and ran with it.

Instead mistakes or poor games throwing the football would be the result. As the season started to wane , coach Harbaugh and Kaepernick began to get back to Kaepernick’s rookie season ways. He was running the football more and as a result the offense was not bogging down nearly as much.

Fantasy football enthusiasts and draft participants likely have Kaepernick labeled as a downgrade quarterback. Last year’s results left a lot to be desired, but the potential is still there. As the saying goes you can’t wait for results, by then someone else will have the rewards of your wait and see approach.

Go back to twelve months ago and your mentality on Kaepernick would be labeled with promise. The 2013 season was both questionable on the 49ers staff and Kaepernick’s. Keep in mind though that last season was his first full season as a starter.

Year two as a full time starter should see leaps and bounds from Kaepernick in all phases. While the media will likely push his offseason story further, there is no doubt that Kaepernick and his teammates are ready to propel past the Seahawks. They played well enough defensively in the NFC Championship game, and were a final big play away offensively.

While others may be downgraded Kaepernick, keep him high on your fantasy football draft charts.

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There is nothing better than getting a jump on the market before public and shark money sways a line. Tomorrow’s early advantage underdog I believe lies with the Boston Red Sox. The Sox have not been their best as of late, that included a ten game losing streak. But early season woes are expected in the long seasons of baseball.

Boston has been had their fair share of bumps in their seasons before, and been able to hit stride when it matters.

Facing Baltimore Monday, the Sox are underdogs on the road. Pitcher Jake Peavy takes the mound as a +117 dog versus the favorite in Bud Norris. Pin this matchup a few weeks ago and the line would probably have been -107 for Norris—much closer to even money.

Oddmaker’s have waned their typical value for Peavy and reversed it based on his last five starts. In those five games he has given up eight hits or more. Those aren’t the type of numbers you’d expect from a starting pitcher. The thinking has to be that Peavy is losing his command completely.

Veteran pitchers typically go through extreme rough patches before hunkering down. I believe that Peavy will turn things around, and this is the perfect matchup to do so.

Baltimore is coming off an emotional series against the Oakland A’s.

Their lineup is as streaky as it gets. Peavy has the craftiness to pitch around hits against this team as long as he keeps the ball inside the park. Another plus side is the Sox are hitting the ball well again to warrant run support for Peavy.

Expect the public and sharks to sway this line by midday tomorrow. Get on the value of this line early.

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Tampa Bay has had one of the more brilliant runs in baseball. Based on the allotted spending they’ve had, they’ve been a strong AL contender year after year. Their system was in-house and built through a sound farm system. Joe Madden as the manager has created a yearly cycle of success.

But as what happened with the Mariners in the late 90’s, things are starting to turn. The cycle of in-house success can only last so long. Their success never came through the area of runs produced. Timely hits was more the norm, while their strength relied on the arms of their pitchers.

Signing David Price to a long term deal is looking like it may bite the Rays. Price has been hit at a high rate this year. Before when he came to the mound he was worthy of the -160 to -185 prices as a pitcher. In fact he was one of the few aces at that price that I would consider. Thus far on the season his era is over four runs.

With four wins and five losses, his ERA has been masked by a few quality starts this season. It’s shaping out to be the beginning of a downturn in Price’s career.

This leaves the Rays with Price’s hefty contract. This season he is making over 14 million a year. Other high priced players on the Rays roster are producing below their contract value as well. Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist are both making over 7 million this season. To say they’re falling short of those contract values is an understatement.

The Rays latest four game slide at home to the Marlins might be the dagger to a season that’s not even midway through June. They are last in the AL East and 15 games behind .500.

The uphill climb is one that the Rays aren’t going to reach. Steps forward that use to come from low margin wins, are replaced by their bullpens and starting pitchers woes.

This just may be the beginning as what happened to the Seattle Mariners after a solid mid to late 90’s run.

For now put the Rays on top of your MLB best bets. They’re still an attractive price by the books, as they’ve drawn a lot of winnings for bettors over the years. The market will be a bargain likely through August. Then just pick your spots, as I see the Rays staying right where they are at. Last in the AL East.