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The NBA has been known for teams tanking to have a better shot at the number one pick. It has worked in some cases and others it hasn’t. In the NFL, it doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal for the teams at the bottom of the league. Some of those teams end up finishing the season better than we thought and toppling their low over/under win total set by Vegas.

From the average handicapper to the esteemed, many are set to turn in their official regular season win total bets. In all likelihood if you’re putting in a serious strong wager you’re going to wait until the day before the regular season. This gives you the time to rethink a total if a serious injury occurs in the preseason.

Surely people are tracking the schedules of teams they plan to wager a win total on. But are you looking at the possibility of a team resting their starters week 17? It happens all the time and it’s no longer just teams that have secured a bye week.

Years ago bye week teams were stronger than they are now, in terms of record. Therefore records of 14-2 and even 13-3 are fewer and fewer. That means stronger wild card teams who sometimes are in position to rest week 17 to make way for a strong playoff run.

If you’re planning on taking the under on teams, you better put together some hypothetical scenarios in week 17. Just like in a straight wager, you’ll be surprised how dead on totals can be.

In Vegas right now teams that are projected to win double digit games are the Denver Broncos (11), Seattle Seahawks (11), Green Bay Packers (10), San Francisco (10.5), and New England (10.5).

Lets play hypothetical for all these teams and assume that they get in position to rest their starters week 17.

Denver would face Oakland at home
Oakland’s season win total is five games. Juice is -150 on the under and +150 on the over. Playing in a division with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos makes the Raiders one of the toughest teams to bet a season total on the over. They also have the NFC West as their non-conference opponents. Unless the Chargers and Chiefs take a huge step back, getting to four or five wins by week 17 is going to be tough.

Seattle would face St. Louis at home
This is a bit more interesting. Seattle may still be in position for a bye week but might be in a neck and neck race with the 49ers for the division. We’re assuming they have the division clinched and rest against the Rams. St. Louis was one of the better young teams with promise last season. Their butt whippings of the Bears and Colts showcased that. Their total is set at 7.5. Vegas is making it awfully tough to bet on any totals in the NFC West. This Rams team should definitely see a bit of a rise but going .500 is the only way you cash.

San Francisco would face Arizona at home
This was the matchup last season to end 2013. If Arizona would have pulled out the win they would have finished with the same record as the 49ers at 11-5. Not many people are discussing that this Cardinals team went 10-6 and still missed out on the playoffs last year. But they’ve also taking some hits on the defensive side of the football which was their strength. Arizona’s win total is also 7.5 and may be too high considering Carson Palmer’s prior injury history. He went last year unscathed but can he duplicate that against the ferocious defense’s of the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams?

Green Bay would face Detroit at home
Out of all the teams projected for double digit win totals the Packers may be in the best position. They’re a veteran team that should finally be healthy. They’re also in a division that heralds the Vikings, Lions, and Bears. The Bears and Lions have the talent but year in and year out fall into the category of teams that are inconsistent. Green Bay also gets the AFC East for their non conference division. Buffalo, New York, Miami, and the Patriots at home. Detroit’s win total is set at 8. I could see the Lions being one of those 8-7 week 17 teams but eliminated from playoff contention. Either way I think the Packers are resting week 17, which makes the play on the over for Detroit more appealing.

New England would face Buffalo at home
Buffalo’s season win total is 6.5. We’ve seen rookies before have success such as EJ Manuel and then have a disastrous second year. I’m not sold on Manuel yet, and I think his injuries in and out of the lineup actually helped the Bills. Teams were not able to get a consistent feel for Manuel’s abilities and Manuel didn’t have the built up pressure mentally on a weekly basis. Doug Marrone’s coaching abilities remain up in the air as well on the NFL level. Their schedule is favorable though, with winnable games against the Raiders, Browns, Vikings, and Houston scheduled. Assuming they can go 3-1 in those games they may be in position week 17 to pad their season total against a resting Patriots.

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Surgeries often get thought of as risk-free if it does not involve a knee, foot, or ankle. Fans and media give off the vibe that other surgeries are less cumbersome.

Cowboys fans and sports bettors should key in on an injury that just took place in the golf world. Tiger Woods, who surely had one of the best surgeons perform on his back, had a setback. The type of setback that you wouldn’t expect in a profession such as golf.

Sure there is twisting and jerking motion, but it pales in comparison to bone crushing hits a quarterback takes.

It’s shocking to me that no one in the sports media has paralleled Woods flare up to Tony Romo’s expected return.

For the type of offense the Cowboys run combined with Romo’s surgically repaired back, I’d put the Cowboys season on high red alert.

The signs have been there for the Cowboys and ownership. Changeover occurred when Wade Phillips was replaced with Jason Garrett. On the field though results looked eerily similar. Up top with Jerry Jones the organization has failed to create a foundation they once had in the 90’s.

Questionable play calling led to losses against the Packers, Chiefs, Broncos and Lions. Four games that could have propelled them to division champs and a possible playoff berth.

The reason for those horrendous miscues was by and large due to the offense’s continuous reliance on Tony Romo. To be the hero on each and every offensive play is just asking for your quarterback to land on injured reserve.

I’m afraid this season will be the dagger of a catalyst to finally trigger change for Dallas. Everyone with a football eye has seen it coming for the last five years. Vegas currently has the win total set at eight wins for the Cowboys. Count me in as one that will be taking the under.

I just don’t see the Cowboys playing solid football for a full sixteen game schedule. It hasn’t happened and won’t in 2014.

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When testing any future market tracking division leaders is typically not the way to go. Separation is only a few games from the second or even third place team. But analyzing a division for weaknesses and strengths can catapult that theory out the window.

In the NL East several teams have taken a free fall over the past month to eight weeks. Philadelphia and the Mets were never in serious consideration to make a run. Though both had flirted with mini win streaks in the month of July.

Miami has been a hot and cold team all season. After closing the division gap to five games they had a tough home stand against the Reds. They dropped three of four and now find themselves seven games back of the Nationals.

That leaves the Braves who are falling apart in an extreme way. Their woes started with a horrific home stand against the Miami Marlins. In that series they lost three of four. Now they’re on a six game losing streak that could have ended yesterday. With the bases loaded and no-outs, Atlanta could not muster a run across the plate.

In the NL, the Central is in a serious log jam. Four teams in the Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds are separated by just five games. Series upon series versus each other could make this division get a bit topsy-turvy.

In the NL West, the Dodgers are already heavily favored to contend for a World Series while the Giants have wondering eyes upon them. I would not have my money on either of these teams.

Washington is sitting at 10-1 and 4.5-5-1 to win the NL. I’ll discount the Braves, Phillies, and Mets. The only team with a shot if they somehow can pull it together are the Marlins. But that’s a stretch in itself. They’re more in position to make a run for the Wild Card than the division.

Put your money on the Nationals while people continue to pile money on teams that just pulled off trades. The Cardinals, A’s, Tigers, and usual flood of money on the Dodgers and Giants.

Washington has had one of the best balanced lineups countered with pitching since June. They’re not typically flashy in terms of the way they score their runs, but they find out a way to plate them across. Pitching wise they’re already boasted as a top five pitching staff.

Lay the money down now, as they have clear sailing to a division title.

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The NFL has been the best of all major sports to have hope for a franchise as a fan. Over the last five to ten years we’ve seen division battles from every team. In the NFC North, the Vikings, Bears, Packers, and even Lions have had success. in the NFC South, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina all have rotated amongst division leaders.

Pick a division and it’s seen a merry go round of change. Still, certain divisions get wrote off and thought of as bottom tier. Take the NFC West a few years ago. It was not that long ago that the division was thought of as pathetic. Remember when the Seahawks won the division at 7-9 in 2010?

They pulled off an improbable home upset of the Saints. Since then the division has been one of the strongest from the Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers. That’s how quick things can change.

In the AFC East it’s been a rocky tenure for the fans of Miami, the Jets, and Buffalo. There’s no doubt that the Patriots have controlled the division for the better part of Brady’s career. Challenges to develop a non-veteran quarterback have plagued the division. New regimes finally changed that philosophy and all went out and drafted their potential future quarterback.

Miami has Ryan Tannehill, the Bills EJ Manuel, and the Jets Geno Smith. Young quarterbacks that still have a ways to go to bring their teams to playoff aspirations. One key area all teams have continued to get better in is defensively.

Buffalo overpaid for some free agents a few years ago but were fortunate to make some key draft picks that have paid off. Miami has built pieces here and there and has had a formidable defensive line for years. New York has had their ups and downs defensively but has never waned from being a defense that keeps the offense in games.

These are the signs that lead me to believe the AFC East is ready to arise amongst the rest of the NFL. This plays a large key for season totals and handicapping games on a week to week basis.

Compare that 2010 season of the NFC West to last years standings in the AFC East. Miami and the Jets both finished 8-8 and were still largely considered failures by fans and the media. Buffalo endured an injury prone season at quarterback under a first year head coach and finished 6-10.

Don’t be surprised to see this division sneak up on the rest of the NFL and surprise NFL fans and sports bettors this season.

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Tonight’s free play in major league baseball comes in the Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles. Currently the Mariners are +142 and still on the rise as bettors pour money on the Orioles. The reason for this rise is because the Mariners struggled mightily just a few days ago against Chen. They were only able to draw five hits and mustered zero runs.

That fact is the draw in, but the Mariners have a draw in themselves. Roenis Elias has shook off some dreadful starts in late June/early July. In his last two starts, including one against the Orioles he allowed just two runs in ten innings of work.

He isn’t able to go seven innings but a controlled outing is all the Mariners need. They’re offense has looked a bit better and should be able to produce off of Chen this time around.

This is an extremely valuable plus payout for Friday. Take the Mariners as close to the start of this game as you can.

There is also a premium play on the board going for $20. Click on today’s picks.

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Under today’s picks I have two premium plays available. For a free play selection we are going to look at the total in Diamondbacks and Cubs. Both of these teams are not offensive juggernauts, therefore the total lies at 7.5 runs. On the mound are two pitchers that have far exceeded pitching expectations.

Josh Collmenter came out of the bullpen to be a saving grace for the Diamondbacks. At stretches in May and early June he was there only reliable pitcher. Collmenter though does not have overpowering pitches or durability. He typically can pitch a maximum of six innings.

For the Cubs, Jake Arrieta has been pitching out of his mind. He has come close to a no hitter and had a fantastic June. He has been almost non hittable. Even though he gave up three runs in his last start it was off of just four hits.

Post All-Star breaks you’ll usually see pitching wane considerably. Mark Buerhle saw his digression before the break. I think you’ll start to see that with both Arrieta and Collmenter. Arrieta has assumed the role of Cubs dominant pitcher with the departure of Hammel and Samardzija. The mess in Arizona has been well-documented and needs no further elaboration.

Though you may have a hard time watching both the Cubs and Diamondbacks offense, sit back and wait for that half inning outbreak. This total will surpass 7.5.