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After last years fantastic all-purpose season by Jamaal Charles he has become the unanimous top back to get. Andy Reid has always ran a high velocity offense centered around the tailback. Success has been had in prior Eagles systems and running backs such as Duce Staley, Correll Buckhalter, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy.

A familiar link with all of those running backs is that there success was stymied eventually because of the heavy dosage they get. Duce Staley’s success started in 1998 and 1999 before injuries derailed him. He had a resurrection of sorts and become a capable fantasy backup with success out of the backfield in 2002 and 2003.

A similar pattern can be found in former star, Brian Westbrook. From quick memory you would of thought he had a great five year run as an Eagle. On the contrary he had two outstanding seasons followed up by a quick career burnout. In 2007 and 2008 he tallied career years with rushing yards of over 2500 combined and receiving yards of near 1200. Injuries quickly took their toll on Westbrook and he fell off quickly in a short stint with the 49ers.

LeSean McCoy was on his way to the same pattern in Philadelphia. His breakout seasons were in 2010 and 2011 before injuries took away a full season from him in 2012—-Andy Reid’s last year. Chip Kelly runs a high amount of plays but keeps has his players prepared for the volume and rotates them properly.

Now we turn to Jamaal Charles. In Charles first year under Andy Reid he saw a dramatic rise in his role as a Chief. His rushing numbers did come down a bit from the prior year but he caught 70 passes totaling nearly 700 yards.

This is looked on by fantasy football participants as gold. The old school workload that produces a gluttony amount of points in PPR leagues. Charles already had a serious injury that caused him to miss the 2011 season. A freak dorm exit injury has Charles currently with a bum foot.

That’s not alarming enough but I would have strong caution with everyone’s unanimous top fantasy pick. His utilization is bound to cause another Andy Reid overused running back to suffer during the season.

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Each day this week I’ll give a breakdown of win totals and where I believe the right side is on the number. Numbers are moving continually and will grow even more before the season begins. This is the fun part of getting into the futures market. Lets just hope no serious injuries occur for those tickets on the over.

Vegas Has it Right On
New England- 10.5
I’ve already written a piece on the AFC East trending upward for 2014. That typically means a downfall for the team that runs the division yearly. With New England their consistency marks an unfathomable reason to suddenly write them off. They’ve improved defensively and have the same nucleus offensively. If it’s not broke don’t fix it. This was one of the easiest totals set by Vegas and it’s spot on.

Beats the Number
New York Jets 7
Initially when looking at the number of seven wins, you’d automatically have a thought of under. On second thought though this team was somewhat impressive last year with a scaled back offense and defense back on the rise. They had some strong wins against the Saints and a few other teams. Normally I’d downgrade a team with a quarterback controversy set to embroil the season. In this case I consider it an upgrade. Geno Smith can’t possibly play worse and Mike Vick is a quarterback you don’t want playing a full 16 games. At some point he’ll probably see the field and a shortened season could be to the Jets benefit. He has been in this role before and understands his situation in New York.

Miami Dolphins 8
Can Ryan Tannehill show true year three quarterback progression? I believe so. He was the main culprit to the demise of many winnable games for the Dolphins a year ago. His confidence began to wane after the Dolphins week four loss on Monday Night football to the Saints. They were ran out of the building with Tannehill having blunder after blunder. After that game the Dolphins play calling was never the same. It was scaled back and hindered the team. This year the play calling will bode to Tannehill’s strengths and we should see a turn around. Don’t be surprised if they get close to a playoff berth or end up with one.

Falls Short
Buffalo 6.5
Being a Syracuse fan I had my questions with the selection of Doug Marrone as head coach. Usually a college coach making the transition to the NFL had a serious strong campaign in college. Marrone did not. Syracuse did develop into a bowl eligible team but getting to a bowl game is not a great achievement anymore. Buffalo seems to have the pieces to string together wins but this does not seem to be the year to do so. The reach in drafting EJ Manuel that stirred controversy will start to rear its head this season.

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Thursday and Friday of the NFL preseason week two are in the books. Lets take a look at some risers in terms of fantasy football for this season.

Risers

Blake Bortles
Bortles shined last year at Central Florida and saw his stock rise to unparalleled heights. Being taken by Jacksonville the time table for him entering the field seems immediate. The team though has plans on bringing Bortles on slowly. We will have to see if that upholds based on Bortles strong preseason game against the Bears. It was on national television and he shined as a worthy controversial starter over Chad Henne. For now though look for Jacksonville to stick to the plan. Bortles is definitely a keeper league pick but nothing else of consideration.

Jordan Matthews
Chip Kelly’s plan to use Matthews all over the place showed promise Friday. Matthews had nine catches for over one hundred yards. Matthews rating amongst receivers still remains challenged, and should not be drafted higher than the top 30 range. We will need to see more from him before he becomes a true riser. All the Eagles quarterbacks threw a seemingly flawless game from completions versus attempts. Your not going to run and pickup Sanchez or Barkley so don’t do so with Matthews. Upside is there though.

Others: Brandon LaFell, Bishop Sankey, Justin Hunter, and Percy Harvin

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While MLB pundits want to chase the AL wild card race because it has the media spotlight teams (Yanks, Red Sox, etc), I’ll focus on the NL wild card. There are several teams bunched together that are going opposite ways. San Francisco, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Miami, and even the up and coming San Diego Padres are all bunched together in a tight NL wild card race.

Up atop currently is the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have been defeating teams in late July/August series to gain ground on the struggling Giants and Braves. They’ve done it with a spark provided by losing their star Andrew McCutchen in the series against Arizona. They’ve had following success against the Marlins and the Tigers.

San Francisco on the other hand has been in a well documented tail spin since starting the first month and a half of the season sharp. At their current rate it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them continue to drop. Pitching has deteriorated for them and the continual issues with getting runs has not waned.

The Reds are a team that likely would be much further ahead than they are if they were completely healthy. But they have just had enough success with their starting pitchers to keep rolling along especially with the Giants and Braves sliding.

Atlanta has a similar story as the Giants. They looked the part for a fair stretch of the season. Their accruement of veteran pitchers worked in spots but the lack of finesse hitting has hurt them dearly. They’re unable to get consecutive hits strung together and strikeout at too high of a rate.

St. Louis has tried to acquire the magic they perceive to be better options. Thus far Justin Masterson looks to be just as rusty as he finished in Cleveland. Their lineup seems to be too aged for success as they’re lacking home run ability which has stopped several threats with RISP.

That leaves the Marlins and Padres. I’ve mentioned the Marlins several times as my darkhorse candidate and now the door is fully open for them. They’ve managed to dodge several issues with their pitching staff and extra-inning losses. At the plate they’re one of the streakiest teams in baseball and right now they’ve come together collectively to hit the ball well. The only regular starter that may need to be taken out is Garrett Jones. He has had a few errors at first base and has brought next to nothing for the team at the plate.

Atlanta and San Francisco have the prestige of being renowned. Pittsburgh would be a great story but has felt short before. That would leave Cincinnati which if healthy probably should be the favorite. They have great all around pitching, lead the MLB in defense, and have just enough hitting to win games.

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I haven’t updated my fantasy rankings since mid-June. This week I’ll unveil new updated rankings in all positions each day. If you have any personal questions to help your fantasy football team feel free to email me at notjustagame23@gmail.com or via twitter@cimini.

1. Drew Brees
The Saints may be ready to pull off the mountain hike back up to the top of the NFL. We’ve seen this trend with teams over the last ten years. They get to the top, stumble back to the bottom and then refocus back to the top. New Orleans impressed early on in the season going undefeated before teams began trapping Jimmy Graham. That won’t work as easily this season with the improvement of Kenny Stills and the drafting of Brandin Cooks. The field will be wide open again for Brees. Look for him to flourish at his typical high rate.

2. Cam Newton
I love the fact that Newton has stayed out of the limelight. His growth on the field took a dive in his second season and grew immensely last year. His all around great rookie season seems well in the past to fantasy owners. People may think the Panthers offense will stay grounded but look for Newton to be the big difference in its growth forward. Steve Smith wasn’t a number one receiver anymore and it was the appropriate time to move on. Newton will have his best fantasy season yet in 2014.

3. Aaron Rodgers
Remember a few seasons ago when Tony Romo was catching flack for parading with Jessica Simpson in the offseason. Rodgers has been in similar fashion this offseason but since he isn’t on the Cowboys it hasn’t been mentioned. Rodgers talent on the field speaks for itself. He is one quarterback that you don’t have to think twice about. Others have offensive limitations on a weekly basis or age worries.

4. Matthew Stafford
It was just a few seasons ago that Matt Stafford was being drafted in round one of fantasy leagues. Change in Detroit figures to be a primary beneficiary to the defense which has been heavily invested in by the Lions front office. Look for it to show the biggest difference in Stafford. Megatron is still there and there should be a retooled focus all around in Detroit.

5. Peyton Manning
I’m not ranking Manning one or two as I believe the Broncos are going to re-shift the way they manage Manning. If their ultimate goal is to get to the Super Bowl they have to protect Manning better. Reducing the amount of throws and focusing on a great running game will be the emphasis in 2014. He needs to be fresh and sharp for one last great playoff run. Elway will be an influence in this and it’ll lead to a lower than expected output from Manning.

6. Matt Ryan
7. Tony Romo
8. RG3
9. Colin Kaepernick
10.Nick Foles
11.Russ Wilson
12.Jay Cutler
13.Tom Brady
14.Ben Roethlisberger
15.Andrew Luck
16.Eli Manning
17.Johnny Manziel
18.Philip Rivers
19.Ryan Tannehill
20.Andy Dalton
21.Carson Palmer
22.Joe Flacco
23.Ryan Fitzpatrick
24.EJ Manuel
25.Sam Bradford
26.Josh McCown
27.Alex Smith
28.Jake Locker
29.Mike Vick
30.Matt Cassel
31.Blake Bortles
32.Matt Schaub

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Last July in Cardinals training camp in Glendale, Arizona, Cardinals running back Andre Ellington was already a standout amongst his teammates. Ellington is exactly who the Cardinals have been seeking after years of frustrating draft picks and veteran misses in free agency at the running back position.

With an improved passing offense with Carson Palmer the offense finally paced at the same level as the defense. The team went 10-6 on the season and still did not make the playoffs. There were plenty of positives from the season though and Ellington was one.

But there have been positives before from the likes of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower in years past. Both never could muster another successful year as a Cardinal.

The fact of the matter is, Arizona has failed to produce a 1,000 yard running back in eleven of the last fourteen years. Edgerrin James did it twice in 2006 and 2007, and Beanie Wells barely surpassed 1,000 yards in 2011.

Too see Andre Ellington ranked as high as a top ten fantasy running back is a bit shocking. I could see a fairer range from 13th to 16th. That’s expecting quite a leap from Ellington and the Cardinals utilization of a running back. After all, Bruce Arians comes from Indianapolis where they didn’t involve the running back consistently.

Though Rashard Mendenhall is out of the picture with retirement, it remains to be seen if the Cardinals will platoon Mendenhall’s carries. There’s no doubt that Ellington will play a larger role but does an increase translate to the same deadly average per catch or rush as a year ago?

We’ve seen running backs with big play ability stem that ability with an increased role. Running backs like Reggie Bush actually had their value diminished with more plays on the field. It’s similar to a sixth man in the NBA. Some players just don’t shine as starters but excel with 20-25 minutes a game as a sixth man.

A player like Patty Mills for the Spurs showcased this last year. As a starter he surely would not have the flash and quick scoring ability he showcased against the Miami Heat.

Another alarming consideration for Arizona is their quarterback. Carson Palmer went unscathed from an injury last year. But his track record in Oakland and Cincinnati is littered with injury history. It’s no secret that he is not the most mobile quarterback and is susceptible to big hits.

If an injury were to occur, the Cardinals do not have the best fill in options at quarterback. Their depth consists of rookie Logan Thomas and journeyman Drew Stanton.

For those that have owned Larry Fitzgerald over the years, know how well the Arizona Cardinals have planned at the backup quarterback position. Quarterbacks such as John Skelton, Max Hall, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Lindley, and a few others have dragged down the Cardinals fantasy football weapons in the past.

Ellington can certainly reach top ten fantasy status, I just don’t believe that it’ll happen this season. Ellington was not a known threat going into a season ago, but now he is. Look for defenses to plan to swarm him and force Palmer to make the necessary over the top throws.