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Zack Cimini and Hollis ‘Harvard’ Barnhart complete their win totals over/under division by division preview with the AFC North and AFC West. In this video they discuss the AFC North team’s in the Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals.
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This week Zack Cimini and Hollis ‘Harvard’ Barnhart continue their divisional win totals preview with the AFC. Monday, they shot videos on the AFC East and AFC South. Catch their takes on where they believe the win totals market lies with the AFC East division in the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, and Buffalo Bills.
AFC East Handicapping Preview from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.
Hollis Barnhart and Zack Cimini discuss the AFC East from a sports handicapping perspective.
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The MLB trade deadline will be set this time tomorrow. There have been plenty of big splashes that will spark teams. We’ve seen the Astros roll off some wins after they acquired Scott Kazmir. Of course if adding a new piece to the puzzle were that simple, people would be pouring their money into the sports markets on a daily basis.
Oddsmakers aren’t foolish either. Tuesday featured an inordinate amount of heavy favorites that made it quite an interesting day to find true value.
If you’re in Vegas or at the proper offshore book, you’ve probably dabbled into series odds from time to time. They can be of great value to land 2 of 3 games instead of worrying on a day to day game basis.
On this blog I want to shift the focus onto teams to be leery of this weekend. Teams with momentum value that carries spreads higher as wins keep happening.
New York Yankees
Not only have the Yankees caught fire at the plate throughout their lineup, but reports are they decided against trading for David Price. They feel they can land him in the offseason without burdening their prospects. That could be true or false but what isn’t false is that perception has been spun by the media. I’d be extra cautious this weekend in taking the bite on the Yankees at likely high prices.
Washington Nationals
Bettors are of pattern behavior. People love familiarity and trends. Last year the Nationals ripped off a nice double digit win-streak in August that catapulted them to the division title. They’re starting to win games again and have a crucial weekend series against the Mets. On top of that the Mets are coming off a couple of shaky home losses against the San Diego Padres.
Houston Astros
The Astros won a come from behind win against the Angels and then beat them again on ESPN Tuesday night. Their bats were the catalysts in both of those wins. Pitching has waned a bit and you have to wonder if their staff has a bit of pressure on them with Kazmir acquired. This Fri, Sat, Sunday series against the Diamondbacks is a tricky one. Arizona has won six of seven and has strong momentum at the plate and on the mound. This will likely be a series that I watch from afar with no plays from all three games from a handicapper stand point.
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Hollis Barnhart and Zack Cimini continue their handicapping previews in the NFC. Wednesday, they covered the NFC North and West. See what they have to say about the NFC North involving the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, and the Minnesota Vikings.
NFC North Handicapping Preview from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.
Hollis Barnhart and Zack Cimini discuss the NFC North from a sports handicapping perspective.
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The Cavs are up two games to one in the best of seven NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors. If not for a poor ending to game one, they could very well be up 3-0. Winning close games is a part of any sport, but Vegas and oddsmakers still believe the 67-win Warriors are the advantage team in this series.
Defense from the Cavaliers has kept the Warriors from having rhythm offensively for four full quarters. To start games the Warriors have fell behind in every first quarter to start the series. In fact, they’ve trailed every quarter besides the lone overtime in game one that they won.
Three games in to any series of two competitive teams is a mere beginning to a series. Flashback to the Bulls two games to one lead over the Cavaliers. Another close game scenario in game four landed to the Cavs and shifted the series from that point forward. The Bulls never looked the same and the series quickly turned to a lopsided finish. Cleveland won the series four games to two.
Golden State just needs to buckle down and move the ball around a bit more offensively. There just is not any fluid movement with the basketball or too many turnovers. Role players such as Draymond Green, Leandro Barbosa, and Harrison Barnes seem to be trying too hard on the offensive end as Stephen Curry dealt with his game and a half shooting slump. Taking quality shots as a team will help alleviate the scoring void that’s hit them against the Cavaliers defense.
Game four is not a must-win as people would think. Golden State has a strong home record and would still have games five and seven to look as home-court advantage games. Of course that means they’d have to win one game on the road, which they’d rather do now than have to do in game six.
Before game four there will likely be some money that comes in on the Cavaliers anticipating a game four win. But I believe Vegas has the odds right on the series price here with Golden State. After all just two games ago, Golden State were upwards in the -700 territory and Cleveland +400. You can’t have a rapid overreaction in any type of market, even with a two-game win streak from an underdog.
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Predictions in the handicapping world typically leave the option of “hedging a wager” on the table. At some point the thought should always cross your mind. When in position to get your ROI or make a small profit there is no reason not to pass that up. The Bulls are now up two games to one over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Readers that have followed my futures advice via blog and twitter are in shape to set themselves up in one of two ways.
One, you can split your hedge money by grabbing the series price on the Cavaliers and also hedge on the Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference. Depending on where you are looking, currently the series price is near even or slightly on the Bulls side. The future to win the Eastern Conference currently has the Bulls at +177, Cavaliers +187, and the Hawks +225. Before game three the Bulls were in the low +200 range and the Cavaliers were in the low +100’s.
I still like the Bulls to win the Eastern Conference. Before tomorrow’s game four I likely will get the Cavs as a series/Eastern Conference future to hedge.
Of course you’ll be taking a bit off the table from any potential future that you have on the Bulls. At +750 you can’t be too upset with the value. They dropped significantly to around the +575 range before the playoffs and of course have steadily dropped in price.
In the handicapping world greed is going to hurt you more than help you. Grab the hedge advantage if you’re in position.
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