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The stats out there of brackets being busted pales in comparison to how poorly the large percentage of sports bettors have done thus far. After just four days of tournament play the Las Vegas sports books are faring very well. That’s not shocking when the underdogs went 16-4 ATS to start the tournament (play-in games included). Going into the round of sweet 16 here are a few tips to avoid falling into the public trap again.

Don’t fall for a Cinderella story
The Cinderella stories of teams getting to the Elite 8 or beyond have captured March Madness for years. This year though there are not “true” slipper Cinderella teams out there. Wichita State has been in this spot before, Xavier has defeated teams they should have in this tournament, Michigan State is a 7th seed doing well against favorable matchups. Putting a cinderella slipper on any of these teams is not justified. This a year that all teams remaining are true contenders not cinderella’s.

Money Lines
This goes hand in hand with the last recommendation but I believe it needs to be separated. People can make decent money pinpointing money line scenarios and wagering. The week to do that was last week in the tournament. NC State paid a nice +350-+400 if you picked them over Villanova. There were countless others as well. In the sweet 16 there will be a lot of solid games but I believe the point spread will be a larger factor this week. Remember you need an outright underdog victory to score your ROI and plus payout. A one-point loss is not going to cut it. If you see value to take a money line you should value the points like many sports bettors do.

Too Late to Grab Michigan State

On my twitter account @cimini I suggested during Michigan State’s slump that they remind me of UConn’s 2011 and 2014 team. They were at 100-1 odds at the time. I didn’t put in the wager and probably won’t regret it. After all they’d still have to win the whole title. The final four is a different story but there is high money driving the Spartans currently. Right now they’re at 15-1 to win the title. I think that’s a bit far fetched and people that are piling on this future have missed the boat. Maybe it happens but when value has been shot down this much I’d gladly sit out.

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The loss of Justin Anderson for Virginia has not hurt their current seeding of a #1 seed. They’re still on track to be a high seed as a #1 or #2 seed. Their regular season success has come as no surprise. Last year they did so and only lost one key player in Joe Harris.

With all the returning talent they had and the coaching of Tony Bennett, Virginia has had unwavered success in 2014-2015. But over their last four to five conference games there have been glaring weaknesses to Virginia. Ones that typically cost a high seed an early exit in the NCAA tournament.

As great as Virginia’s defense is they have a hard time maintaining an offensive attack. Even before the loss of Justin Anderson they had rough stretches. In the first half against Rutgers and Davidson they found themselves trailing. Thanks to proper adjustments from Bennett and increased defensive intensity they were able to run away in those games.

As the season has wore on in ACC play, Virginia’s defense has not been as sharp. That’s because teams are starting to attack Virginia more inside. They’ve also been using their poor offense against them. Louisville struggled to score against Virginia but the offense they were able to generate came via missed Virginia shots and attacking against a non-set defense.

If Virginia does not figure out a way to orchestrate better offense they will be on upset alert before the sweet 16 this season. Justin Anderson is due to come back around that time frame. Sometimes a key player returning after a layoff ends up being a detriment to a team. The time away allots players to get accustomed to playing without an individual. Adding Anderson for the tournament will be great for Virginia defensively but I see it hurting them offensively.

Virginia may end up still being a number one seed or a two seed, but the way they’re playing I’d have to rank them a true 4/5 seed with the eye test.

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Tulsa is 10-1 in the American conference. They have managed that record because of sound defense and solid guard play offensively. Thursday they travel to face the defending champion UConn Huskies. UConn likely will not be in this year’s NCAA tournament unless they win the American conference tournament.

Coach Kevin Ollie just has not been able to get enough offense from there entire team. Guards Omar Calhoun, Sam Cassell Jr, Terrence Samuel, and Rodney Purvis just have not succeeded to help aid senior guard Ryan Boatright. Daniel Hamilton has tried to alleviate the pressure from Boatright but is probably a year away from filling that role.

In the earlier matchup between these two, Tulsa attacked UConn in half court sets at the rim. It worked and kept UConn’s transition offense in check.

The odds will surely be on UConn’s side as this is a key game for UConn and the anticipation is for a Tulsa loss. I’m don’t think that’s the right route to go with UConn’s consistent struggles to score. Kevin Ollie has tried everything to get the offense in gear and they just do not have the weapons to sustain an offensive edge against Tulsa. To win this game it’ll need to be done in a slow paced defensive battle.

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On the season in college basketball Zack is 66-25-3 ATS. Today he is just on one play, and it involves a late-night capper. Get it under today’s picks for just $29.

Today I perceived both the NBA and NCAA basketball board as a cautionary board. It’s my personal opinion and other cappers may believe it to be an enticing board. There is one game I would caution all against and that is my —-Stay Away Game Of The Day between Syracuse and Georgia Tech—.

Both of these teams have flirted with both disaster and greatness this season. Syracuse has bounced back nicely in the wins category but still flirted with letting big leads evaporate into losses. They almost blew an early season matchup against Iowa in the final minutes, Louisiana Tech recently, and allowed Virginia Tech to erase a 19 point halftime lead in their latest game. In between all of that was a blown win at Villanova that could cost Syracuse down the road if they end up on the bubble.

Georgia Tech is a new style team that has young talent intermixed with Maryland transfer Charles Mitchell in the low blocks. They’re play has been erratic and inconsistent but the capability of defeating a top 25 team is there on any given night.

The point spread in favor of Syracuse by four is clearly an high indicator that the linesmakers do not believe Georgia Tech can attack Syracuse’s zone effectively. I’m not sure they can either with limited experience in the backcourt and an edge in the post with Rakeem Christmas of Syracuse. Christmas though has been known to get in foul trouble early. Syracuse sharp shooter Trevor Cooney has also been known to go through his hot/cold stretches. Currently he has been on a hot stretch which has aided Syracuse’s offense immensely. But is that poor shooting night smack dab in front of us?

There are too many red-flags for me to lay the points with Syracuse on the road against Georgia Tech, and I can’t trust Georgia Tech’s on-court chemistry to befuddle the Syracuse zone.

This could be one of those games where the lead changes five to ten times. Keep this one off your board as the stay away game of the day.

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12/10 04:00 PM CB (525) KANSAS VS (526) GEORGETOWN edit

Take: (525) KANSAS

Reason: Play Kansas plus 3 Play Kansas plus 3 The line here clearly is a distinction of Georgetown as a home team. DC is always a tough place to play. But I do not believe Georgetown has the depth to hang in for a full 40 minutes against Kansas. Thus far the team has done a fantastic job at executing on the defensive end and keeping teams below the 65 point range. They’re doing so with key upper classmen playing out of position. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is playing the point guard position with Markel Starks gone due to graduation. Before this season Smith-Rivera averaged just above 2 assists, now it’s at three. At guard is Jabril Trawick who has always been undersized but is more of a defensive ace on the floor and hustle guy offensively. Another troubling sign is Georgetown’s bigs have been foul prone in key games this season. Against Wisconsin, Florida, and Butler both Mikhael Hopkins and Joshua Smith have had to play a reduced role because of fouls. Hopkins fouled out in two of those games and Smith had four fouls in two of the three. Kansas may be missing Jabari Traylor but they still have the athleticism to disrupt Georgetown’s offensive sets and get their bigs into foul trouble. Georgetown is still settling in on their bench rotation which could disrupt small leads they may get in this game. Expect Kansas to find a way to keep this a last shot wins or loses game and grab the cover or win.