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Sunday was fantastic for myself in ATS plays, winning three of four games. Monday night is the last of week five and features an NFC matchup between the Seahawks and Washington Redskins. The opening line of this game was around a touchdown to a touchdown and a half. Currently it sits at 8-8.5.

Lets not forget that it was just two playoffs ago these two teams met in a wild card matchup in Washington. It’s been a reversal of sorts for both teams since that game. Seattle has propelled to a dominant force while Washington has regressed since that game where RG3’s career has seemingly changed forever. But in that game the Redskins had a 14-0 lead before things unraveled. Clearly both of these teams are much different since then but it’s something to keep in mind for some of the veterans on both of these teams.

Seattle is the team that the public and professional sports bettors have come to love. Over the last few seasons they’ve been cash cows in the regular season and playoffs. But is the value a little too high tonight in Washington?

There is reason to believe that to be the case. Both teams are coming off of bye weeks. The last games played for both teams were head scratchers to their coaching staffs. Seattle let a double digit lead against the Broncos whittle away to a tie and overtime against Denver. They did win the game but that is not in the fashion the Seahawks would have liked. Washington on the other hand is coming off a complete meltdown to a surging Giants team. On a national televised CBS Thursday night game the Redskins were thumped in a disgraceful manner.

That thumping and Seattle’s perceived dominance is why this line is as high as it is. You do not typically see road teams this high of a favorite against a team perceived to win six to nine games. Typically this high of a spread would only be seen against a team projected to win five or less.

Breaking down Seattle’s last ten games results tell you that they are not the juggernaut ATS machine they once were in the early stages of 2013 and in 2012. They got a gift of a cover against Denver, faltered in San Diego, and beat up on an overwhelmed Green Bay team on a Thursday opening game for 2014. In the 2013 playoffs people have lime lighted their Super Bowl dominating win and cast it forward. But they did not defeat the Saints nor the 49ers in the NFC playoffs with ease.

New Orleans was a touchdown and two point conversion away from tying the game and everyone remembers how the San Francisco game finished.

In the final stretch of the 2013 regular season the Seahawks lost two games. One to the 49ers and one to the Arizona Cardinals.

For tonight’s Monday Night Football game I would lean on taking the home underdog to cover a whopping amount. If the Redskins had not been blown out at home against the Giants this spread would easily be 5-5.5.