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At the beginning of the NFL season gaining a win on the point spread can be harder than trying to figure out the BCS point system. A strong key is to not over analyze and go after proper lines. Here is a mini breakdown of tonight’s game.

Current Line: NY Giants -3.5
Over/Under 45

The line has adjusted a half point in the favor of the Cowboys in the last day. After originally opening at 3, the line moved to four, and has settled in the middle at 3.5. Movement as such is going to happen, but is not going to affect the outcome of your bet if you’re rooting for the Giants. If anything if you put money on the Giants or Cowboys and feel uncomfortable on a three point cover, than buy a half point for a potential push.

Playing at home is the main reason the Giants have the point spread edge here. It typically would be three points in this close of a game, but another full point was tacked on originally because the Giants are Super Bowl Champions.

Criticism comes in waves at all quarterbacks, it’s just the nature of the position. Eli may finally be able to breathe in the media’s eye now that he has won another Super Bowl. Will he experience a setback in his career like he did after he won his first Super Bowl? Even though Eli has won two rings he has been fortunate to be on two teams that have caught fire at the right time. If it were not for that the teams he have been on regular season record-wise, have not lived up to their post-season success.

Last year though was a different Eli Manning. He seemed to take over games more and have better control than in the past. He limited his interceptions and kept command of drives.

Based on the home edge and history here I do like the Giants to win and cover. Dallas has been down right atrocious in prime time games on Sunday or Monday Night football. Even though this is a Wednesday game it is considered a prime time game. Last year the Cowboys went 1-3 in prime time games. Losing week one to the Jets, a blowout road loss to the Eagles week eight, and of course their melt down against the Giants late in the season.

Their only win was a two point victory over the Redskins. Not something to write home about. Of course two seasons ago was not much better. They opened in a prime time game against the Redskins and lost. That game set the tone for Wade Phillips departure. The capper was their blowout Sunday Night loss to the Green Bay Packers.

This should be a tight game do not get me wrong. I expect the defenses to play better than the over/under of 45. With how familiar these teams are with each other expect a couple of boots from the kickers instead of touchdowns to keep the total under 45. In the end though Manning will lead the Giants to a late drive to win and cover, and the defense will step up to thwart the Cowboys.