Posts tagged with “notjustagame.com”

The Three Best Fantasy Football Rookies

Monday, 27 July, 2015

The 2015 NFL draft class has quite a bit of potential when you look at the top positions in fantasy football. It is headlined by the two quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft, but it really shines at the wide receiver position. It might take a little while for some of these guys to live up to expectations, but for others, they are ready to contribute now. Here is a look at when to draft the three best rookies in fantasy football this year.

Melvin Gordon

At Wisconsin, he was nearly unstoppable throughout his college career. He is a very disciplined running back who will get an opportunity to shine right away in San Diego. Taking him in the top 15 among running backs is not a crazy thought at all. He has a chance to be really good for a long time with his size and speed.

Todd Gurley

The running back is coming off an injury, but St. Louis plans on using him right away. They need someone with his dynamic ability in the backfield, and that is why they drafted him in the first round. The injuries drop him a bit, but he is still a top 25 running back, and a top 50 player overall in fantasy football.

Amari Cooper

Most fantasy football owners are hesitant to trust a rookie wide receiver. Cooper shouldn’t play much like a rookie though, as he is mature and disciplined already. He will be an instant difference maker in Oakland for the Raiders. He needs to make sure he is on the same page as Derek Carr right away.

Handicapping the NFL Preseason

Wednesday, 22 July, 2015

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Preseason football is a mere two weeks away. The month of August will feature a gamut of games. With that comes the lure of point spreads. The NFL is probably the toughest to handicap on a week to week basis. But some find the preseason easier to handicap. I find that odd as playing time is unpredictable and point spreads can often come down to third stringers.

The best comparison of this would be the NBA Summer League. Point spreads have been available for the summer league for a good three years now. Often times the point spreads are set with a low variance between -1 to -5. Rosters shuffle each game whether it’s profiled rookies or second year players seeing reduced playing time, or proper evaluation by the coaching staff.

In preseason football you obviously have a higher job security basement for on field players. Besides the third preseason game, playing time from the 1st quarter onward is for players vying for backup or roster depth positions.

My advice in handicapping preseason football is similar to the regular season. Avoid the “easy” plays. People tend to believe a line movement in football indicates sharp money. Often times it’s the trap play that ends with a fourth quarter backdoor situation. Instead latch onto games where you’ve seen backup players perform well before.

Backup quarterbacks have typically seen the field as starters or in preseason situations before. Key in on if they know the playbook well or are turnover prone. Turnover prone quarterbacks and running backs do not tend to have a preseason flurry of greatness. The same tendencies usually carry over and that can be detrimental to protecting a lead or keeping the chains moving.

Leads are going to evaporate even more in preseason football. Defenses have vanilla blitzes and game plans that expose third and fourth units.

If you’re planning on wagering on preseason football set yourself a layout. In that layout I’d have the amount of games total you’d plan on wagering on. A safe number would be between a handful and low double-digits in my opinion. Keep your wagering limits also set. Whatever your regular season weekly game wagers are maybe decrease that in half.

Don’t start the regular season off on a sour-note by digging yourself an unmanageable hole from preseason. On the field coaches are evaluating all phases of their football team. Do the same be having proper discipline with preseason wagers that you can evaluate on a game to game basis.

Fantasy football enthusiasts vs. Sports Handicappers

Saturday, 27 June, 2015

The line between fantasy and reality is being blurred by the rapidly-growing Daily Fantasy Sports market, offering fans a chance to not only build the team of their dreams and test their football knowledge but earn big money by playing fantasy sports against other passionate pigskin aficionados. In fact, fantasy footballers are more like sports handicappers than ever before.

Fantasy sports are nothing new to the mainstream, stemming from those hallowed Rotisserie League days in the 1980s and booming in popularity at the turn of the century. Much like sports betting, fantasy football gets fans to not just tune into their favorite NFL teams each Sunday but also watch games involving different players on their fantasy rosters.

And, again like sports betting, managing your fantasy team – daily or season-long – takes a keen eye to spot value in certain matchups that may not be visible to the average fan. Fantasy football is one of the most underrated places to find sports betting tips, and vice versa.

For example, sports handicappers may look to play the Under in a contest in which a team’s passing game is facing a stingy secondary that ranks among the top pass defenses in the NFL, knowing that the offense won’t be able to pick up big gains and will likely have to run the ball more than usual – keeping the gains short and the clock ticking.

The fantasy football player sees this matchup in a similar light, spotting added value in the offense’s running back, knowing the team won’t be passing as much and giving the rusher extra carries to try and move the chains while taking pressure off the receivers and forcing the defense to loosen up on the pass coverage.

One of the biggest trends in fantasy football in recent years is the shift away from the rushing game, with most teams using a multi-back run attack, and the boom in passing. Since defenses are all but handcuffed when defending receivers, more importance is being put on quarterbacks and wideouts – but also running backs who can make plays after the catch. Finding a hybrid running back, that can run the ball and also make catches, is a smart way to win your weekly or daily fantasy football matchup.

Cavs Still Underdog To Win Finals

Wednesday, 10 June, 2015

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The Cavs are up two games to one in the best of seven NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors. If not for a poor ending to game one, they could very well be up 3-0. Winning close games is a part of any sport, but Vegas and oddsmakers still believe the 67-win Warriors are the advantage team in this series.

Defense from the Cavaliers has kept the Warriors from having rhythm offensively for four full quarters. To start games the Warriors have fell behind in every first quarter to start the series. In fact, they’ve trailed every quarter besides the lone overtime in game one that they won.

Three games in to any series of two competitive teams is a mere beginning to a series. Flashback to the Bulls two games to one lead over the Cavaliers. Another close game scenario in game four landed to the Cavs and shifted the series from that point forward. The Bulls never looked the same and the series quickly turned to a lopsided finish. Cleveland won the series four games to two.

Golden State just needs to buckle down and move the ball around a bit more offensively. There just is not any fluid movement with the basketball or too many turnovers. Role players such as Draymond Green, Leandro Barbosa, and Harrison Barnes seem to be trying too hard on the offensive end as Stephen Curry dealt with his game and a half shooting slump. Taking quality shots as a team will help alleviate the scoring void that’s hit them against the Cavaliers defense.

Game four is not a must-win as people would think. Golden State has a strong home record and would still have games five and seven to look as home-court advantage games. Of course that means they’d have to win one game on the road, which they’d rather do now than have to do in game six.

Before game four there will likely be some money that comes in on the Cavaliers anticipating a game four win. But I believe Vegas has the odds right on the series price here with Golden State. After all just two games ago, Golden State were upwards in the -700 territory and Cleveland +400. You can’t have a rapid overreaction in any type of market, even with a two-game win streak from an underdog.

Two Good Bets To Win The 2015 US Open

Wednesday, 10 June, 2015

Two Good Bets To Win The 2015 US Open

The U.S. Open tees off on June 18th at Chambers Bay, which is hosting the second major of the golf season for the first time. In fact, this is only the second time that a big event has been held at Chambers Bay. The first was the U.S. Amateur in 2010, so the majority of the field – if not the entire field – has not played a competitive round on this course. That levels the playing field and makes it a little bit challenging for our picks. At any rate, here are our two favorite golf bets for the U.S. Open in terms of golfers to win it all.

Justin Rose (+1650): Rose also seems to be in the conversation for the lead at most tournaments, and while he lost in a playoff at the Memorial to David Lingmerth, he’ll still be in the mix at Chambers Bay. Rose won his first major at the U.S. Open in 2013 at Merion Golf Club, he finished in the top 25 in all four last year and then was T-2 at Augusta in April. He has a smooth, solid golf game that translates well to virtually every type of course.

Dustin Johnson (+1815): Everyone loves a comeback story and Johnson would fit that scenario. He had some off-course troubles last year, but Johnson has since had a child, returned to golf, won the WGC-Cadillac Championship, posted six top-tens this season and that includes a T-6 at the Masters. Johnson’s length off the tee can help him overpower the course, but it has been his putting that has let him down in previous major championships where he has held the lead. With everything that has gone on in his life, Johnson might have better perspective now to help him calm down in pressure situations and we all know he is talented. He’s a solid choice for your golf bets

FUTURES MARKET: NBA FINALS MVP

Monday, 1 June, 2015

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Last year there were numerous players capable of winning Finals MVP between the Spurs and Heat. The list ranged deep before you would see Kawhi Leonard’s name at 20-1. He defended, scored, and rebounded to become the catalyst to be the difference and MVP a season ago.

This year both the Cavaliers and Warriors have the same deep pedigree of talented players. With the Warriors favored to win the series, Stephen Curry(reg season MVP) is also the odds on favorite to win Finals MVP at -175.

While the top of the heap features the expected big names, I’m always one to venture down the list for value purposes. This past NCAA championship I recommended Tyus Jones at 25-1 for Duke. During last year’s NBA Finals I recommended a hedge on the MVP(recommended Spurs to win title at 5-1 earlier in the playoffs) by grabbing Dwayne Wade at 10-1 for Finals MVP. I figured if the Heat had any chance of beating the Spurs Wade would have to turn to his old ways for a series—flashes he did show throughout the end of the regular season and some of the NBA playoffs.

This year we’ve heard people rationalize time and time again that Draymond Green is the key to the Warriors even with how well Stephen Curry has played. Curry fills the stat sheet while Green just does his job. That has somewhat changed as the season has stretched on. Green is becoming more and more involved in the offense.

With Klay Thompson’s status unknown, the shifting priorities of the Warriors and Cavs could play into the hands of Green. The Cavaliers are already a strong defensive team that would be able to shift more focus on the perimeter and on Stephen Curry. This would lead to more opportunities for another Warrior player to step up offensively, and you’d have to think Green would be one of the main options in that department.

Defensively, what he can do guarding various players already has his value as a sleeper MVP warranted.

Currently you can grab Green at 15-1 odds. We’re three days away from the Finals beginning and have yet to hear Thompson’s status. Grab the odds now before they shift on word of Thompson possibly missing game one or more.