Posts tagged with “notjustagame.com”

VALUE UNDERDOGS WEEK ONE OF THE NFL

Tuesday, 10 June, 2014

Follow@cimini

A summer goes by quick. Football fanatics consider this season their restless time period. Reading up on daily information for fantasy football drafts can only feed their football needs for so long. Trash talking fills the void for a few weeks and then preseason football finally takes over.

One area that can be a temporary look ahead for die-hard football fans is the week one odds that are already out.

It’s crazy to consider that you could place a bet on an NFL game three months from now. But in Las Vegas there are many people that will head to the ticket window and place a bet now. Some are locals that consider the line value worthy of a bet now. Others are tourists in town and figure they’ll make a return trip down the road to possibly cash out.

I’ve never been one to look ahead on lines because of sudden injuries and lackluster performances from teams of a year ago. But this year may be different. A lot of NFL teams haven’t changed the nucleus of their teams as in years past. Many coaches remain and the format is there to anticipate possible line value.

Here are just a few games that I believe there lies value on in week one.

St. Louis Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
This current line sits at -6 in favor of the St. Louis Rams. Teams that looked awful to conclude seasons typically roll that over into the next. Minnesota was one of the worst teams to finish out the second half of the year. Part of that had to do with their unsettling situation at quarterback. Freeman-Ponder-Cassel. None proved to be worthy of the starting job. Thus the Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater to hopefully solidify their quarterback issues. St. Louis on the other hand started to look like a true contender to be reckoned with as the season waned. Especially at home where they blew out teams such as the Bears and Colts. Jeff Fisher has this team primed to excel. Who knows who the Vikings will roll out as starter week one.

One can assume that it will be Matt Cassel. Veterans with average talent tend to struggle looking over their shoulder. That will be the case for Cassel as his days as starter will be numbered for Bridgewater. With a new coaching staff most players will be on a short leash. There just is too many roster moves the Vikings will be overhauling while the Rams have their teams intact.

Total San Diego vs Arizona of 44.5
Last year San Diego was one of the dreadful teams to watch offensively. They had a methodical way of doing things that sometimes won games and others caused problems. Due to the NFL’s high rate of scoring this line is basically at the median average. Simple enough to likely not attract eyes in June or July. Being formerly from Arizona I know enough about this Cardinals team to know they are a slow starting team.

Both of these teams have sound defenses, and veteran offenses. That should equate to simplistic offense in hopes of winning the game in the fourth quarter. One should know not to trust either Carson Palmer or Philip Rivers in September. This game should have the biggest shift in opening spread differential to gameday.

KUDOS TO THE KNICKS BRINGING FISHER ON BOARD

Tuesday, 10 June, 2014

Follow@cimini

It’s odd to see player’s just a few years ago becoming head coaches in the NBA. The old system of coaching ranks typically had former athletes work their way up as assistants. There were few that were able to break that trend, but they did not fare well as coaches.

Suddenly front offices are bucking that trend. Mark Jackson had a solid tenure with the Warriors before being let go. Jason Kidd with the Nets, and now Steve Kerr and Derek Fisher.

The signing of Derek Fisher as head coach should prove to be one of the best moves the Knicks have made in quite awhile. New York never had the lure to attract a coach for quite sometime, due to the disdain over Knicks management. Attracting proper free agents has even been a formidable issue for years. Salary woes impacted by Isiah Thomas seemed to cause a rollover affect that the Knicks could not shake.

By and Carmelo Anthony the Knicks thought they would solve their problems. Instead just like for Melo in Denver, with the signing of Allen Iverson things were aligned too late. Iverson’s career was on its last legs and the pair never reached any heights. The same could be said with Stoudemire as his knees ravaged the shine that he had as a Phoenix Sun.

now running the show with Phil Jackson things could finally change rather quickly. Fisher has a great rapport with the bulk of the players in the NBA. During Kevin Durant’s MVP speech he devoted special attention to Fisher’s commanding presence and daily work ethic.

The fact that Derek Fisher was even on an NBA roster speaks volume to the type of leadership he brings to a locker room. One could say after the Lakers traded him the first time to Utah that Fisher likely shouldn’t have been on an NBA roster anymore. From an athletic standpoint he had become the type of defensive liability that Steve Nash has been, without the offensive skill set. Yet he remained on rosters because of what he brought to the core of the locker room.

Now all eyes will be on what Fisher and Jackson can put together via free agency and the NBA Draft. Knicks fans should finally be hopeful for a bright future. Remember with Mike Woodson just a few seasons ago, this team catapulted to have a successful 50 plus win season.

The Knicks are on the clock and in a good way.

MLB LINE VALUE TUESDAY

Tuesday, 10 June, 2014

Follow@cimini

It’s no secret that the Miami Marlins are a poor road team. As it stands they are currently 11-19 on the road. So a justified line against Texas today stands as a +130 dog. A solid price for an underdog of the Marlins caliber, and maybe too high to take the bait for a favorite in Texas.

This is the Marlins third away stand on their current trip. The first occurred in their home state of Florida. A series sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays. Their latest was a dreadful trip to Chicago in which they only won one game.

The young bats of the Marlins that were red hot against the Rays started to hit the wall. Several strikeouts occurred in that away stand.

The rest in between series should be enough to calm the minds of the young athletes of the Marlins. Tommy Koehler has stepped up as of late to take in the reigns for the Marlins as Fernandez went down and Hector Alvarez has returned.

Look for Koehler to pitch well tonight and the Marlins bats to come back to life.

If you’re looking for an underdog payout the Marlins are your best bet of the day.

Don’t Temper Kaepernick Expectations

Monday, 9 June, 2014

Follow@cimini

The 49ers were supposed to be the team to represent the NFC in many football fans minds last season. They came close but could not supplant their divisional rivals in the Seattle Seahawks. As division foes the stage is set for Russ Wilson and Colin Kaepernick to face each other for many years.

Seattle designed the perfect system to keep Russ Wilson’s inexperience an actual advantage for him. Designing basic scrambles and creative rollouts allotted for Wilson to have the comfortability he needed. Sometimes it looked like total chaos seeing Wilson take off, but in the end it worked.

Pete Carroll and his staff had a basic offense in which the personnel understood their roles. San Francisco had the same formula as the Seahawks defensively but lacked the consistency offensively. That largely revolved around the 49ers not knowing how they wanted to use Colin Kaepernick. Their game plan for Kaepernick seemed to let him evolve as a pocket passing quarterback. Opposite of what Russ Wilson did freelancing as a runner, Kaepernick hardly tucked the football and ran with it.

Instead mistakes or poor games throwing the football would be the result. As the season started to wane , coach Harbaugh and Kaepernick began to get back to Kaepernick’s rookie season ways. He was running the football more and as a result the offense was not bogging down nearly as much.

Fantasy football enthusiasts and draft participants likely have Kaepernick labeled as a downgrade quarterback. Last year’s results left a lot to be desired, but the potential is still there. As the saying goes you can’t wait for results, by then someone else will have the rewards of your wait and see approach.

Go back to twelve months ago and your mentality on Kaepernick would be labeled with promise. The 2013 season was both questionable on the 49ers staff and Kaepernick’s. Keep in mind though that last season was his first full season as a starter.

Year two as a full time starter should see leaps and bounds from Kaepernick in all phases. While the media will likely push his offseason story further, there is no doubt that Kaepernick and his teammates are ready to propel past the Seahawks. They played well enough defensively in the NFC Championship game, and were a final big play away offensively.

While others may be downgraded Kaepernick, keep him high on your fantasy football draft charts.

EARLY MLB LINE VALUE FOR MONDAY

Monday, 9 June, 2014

Follow@cimini

There is nothing better than getting a jump on the market before public and shark money sways a line. Tomorrow’s early advantage underdog I believe lies with the Boston Red Sox. The Sox have not been their best as of late, that included a ten game losing streak. But early season woes are expected in the long seasons of baseball.

Boston has been had their fair share of bumps in their seasons before, and been able to hit stride when it matters.

Facing Baltimore Monday, the Sox are underdogs on the road. Pitcher Jake Peavy takes the mound as a +117 dog versus the favorite in Bud Norris. Pin this matchup a few weeks ago and the line would probably have been -107 for Norris—much closer to even money.

Oddmaker’s have waned their typical value for Peavy and reversed it based on his last five starts. In those five games he has given up eight hits or more. Those aren’t the type of numbers you’d expect from a starting pitcher. The thinking has to be that Peavy is losing his command completely.

Veteran pitchers typically go through extreme rough patches before hunkering down. I believe that Peavy will turn things around, and this is the perfect matchup to do so.

Baltimore is coming off an emotional series against the Oakland A’s.

Their lineup is as streaky as it gets. Peavy has the craftiness to pitch around hits against this team as long as he keeps the ball inside the park. Another plus side is the Sox are hitting the ball well again to warrant run support for Peavy.

Expect the public and sharks to sway this line by midday tomorrow. Get on the value of this line early.

Is Aaron Rodgers that Stock With Red Flags Being Overlooked?

Friday, 6 June, 2014

Follow@cimini

Aaron Rodgers has lit up the NFL and fantasy football world year after year. Any fantasy football stat tracker on a Sunday will showcase Rodgers points moving upward like a hot stock on Wall Street. He has earned the top spot as best quarterback in football and therefore fantasy football.

Age has a lot to do with why people will still draft Rodgers without thinking twice. His counterparts that still rank high in fantasy football efficiency are several years older than him. Players such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and even Tony Romo.

Hot stocks in Wall Street are the ones that can bite you in a hurry. Aaron Rodgers has some gray areas that are evident but not being discussed.

For one he is a quarterback that has never had a proper running game. The Packers have made things work with a plethora of below average running backs. That has partly had to do with injuries occurring at a high rate. Things may be looking upward in that department with the combo of Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin. But will either or be a viable option consistently?

Another area being over looked is the tenure between Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has been the Packers head coach since 2007. There is no reason to consider firing McCarthy, but there is a common link between coaches and starting quarterbacks. They don’t go hand in hand over a long period of time without failure.

Look at over the course of even the last ten to fifteen years and you’ll notice the regression amongst good coaches and great quarterbacks. At some point or another that coaches system breaks down and effects the quarterback on the field.

That hasn’t happened to a noticeable effect yet, but you can see teams are better prepared for the Packers aerial attack than in years past. It’s similar to the way teams have been able to limit the Saints offense when big games occur. You’ll notice that since the Packers and Saints Super Bowl wins their playoff success and regular season success against winning teams has waned.

The biggest area to cast a shadow of doubt with Rodgers is his injury history. Injuries are so common now in fantasy football that some aren’t even factoring it in to their drafts. Their idea is to secure themselves for the inevitable with depth.

Well just like a scout team and personnel in major sports, drafting a player requires thinking of all possibilities.

Rodgers is coming off a year in which he missed six games due to injury. It was the first time he has missed more than one game in a season. In prior years he has only missed an individual game. Some would say back then he shook off injuries a week or two earlier than he should have to get back on the field.

Either way he has shown a history of injury concerns.

Rodgers time as an elite fantasy quarterback is not coming to an end. I’d just be a little bit leery drafting him without a proper top notch backup fantasy quarterback. If you’re in a top spot and someone wants to trade up to get Rodgers, maybe that’s a safer option.