Posts tagged with “notjustagame.com”

MLB FUTURE ODDS IN JUNE

Friday, 13 June, 2014

FOLLOW@CIMINI

Future odds in baseball tend to see little action until the playoffs are getting closer. The month of August usually signals the heaviest action. People that start wagering in June and even July are all about anticipation.

Of course the only reason to bet in these months on future odds is positioning. With most divisions still clumped together with little or no separation, no one truly knows who is going to hit the finish line stronger. This is your chance to stray from the typical division winners or favorites, and roll the dice a little with higher odds.

If that team ends up winning the division or wild card, than you have narrowed yourself down to the final eight teams in major league baseball. A lot will go into the playoffs like any other season, but at least you have considerable better odds now than what you would be offered then.

While money will likely pour on to teams that everyone expects to be in the race (Giants, Cardinals, Dodgers, Tigers, Athletics, etc), lets take a look at some teams that could be in the mix at long shot odds.

LA Angels World Series 15-1 and 7-1 AL Pennant
This team no one truly knows what they’re capable of doing. They brought in the high dollar free agents last year, but still haven’t seen anything matriculate. This year they’re a bit off the radar because they’ve had the injury bug. But do not count out this team. They’ve done it before and are being a bit overlooked because of their slow start.

Miami Marlins- World Series 100-1 and 45-1 Pennant
When the media bashes an organization consistently the public will never back them. Therefore, even when Jose Fernandez was healthy, the Marlins still weren’t attracting a penny on them in future odds. This team is cleverly put together similarly to their 1997 World Series. Their pitching took a steep decline with Fernandez out, but Alvarez, Koehler, and others are more than capable. Their strength for a post season run will ride with their young bats. They strike out a lot but our a very dangerous group lead by Giancarlo Stanton.

Boston Red Sox- World Series 30-1 and 13-1 Pennant
It’s far too early to write off a team, especially the defending champs. Clearly by the current future lines, oddsmakers are baiting the public to throw their money on the champs. It could be the type of odds and money coming in that backfires on the books once again. Think the NY Giants, Packers, Ravens, St. Louis Cardinals, UConn Huskies, and countless other talented teams that looked down and out in professional sports. The Red Sox have plenty to overcome, but our experienced enough to get their roller coaster heading back upward.

Veteran Quarterback Sleepers

Friday, 13 June, 2014

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The names ring a bell but do the have any fantasy football value? Surely if the opportunity presents itself they might end up being a starter. In some situations they are already in position to win the job or improve upon their season from a year ago. Kurt Warner set the stage for veteran success on multiple occasions.

Look around the NFL and there are several elite quarterbacks still performing at a high level past the age of 35.

Here are some quarterbacks that likely won’t get drafted but may end up on fantasy football rosters sooner than later.

Kyle Orton
It’s hard to believe that Orton is just 31 years old. He’ll have to beat out Brandon Weeden to retain the backup duties in Dallas. Without question, the Cowboys have the offensive tools to make either an adequate fantasy fill-in if Tony Romo were to go down. Based on Romo’s injury history, chances are high that Orton could see the field once again.

Carson Palmer
Palmer gets to his second season under center in Arizona this fall. You could say the same patterns of problems with Carson that were issues in Oakland and Cincinnati plagued him in 2013. Unless he cuts back on his ill-advised interceptions, it could be a short lived second season as a Cardinal. Arizona has Drew Stanton as a backup and drafted Logan Thomas as another prospect.

Thad Lewis
Buffalo is hoping that they can count on EJ Manuel to remain healthy this season. If not, Lewis, will be called on once again to handle duties. Lewis won a key game at Miami and exhibited fair capabilities for a backup quarterback.

Jason Campbell
Out of all the backups in the league, I’m still not sure I know why Campbell never got a true chance to be a starter beyond Washington. His days in Oakland don’t count. As a starter for the Redskins he seemed to be a poised quarterback capable of being a yearly starter. Obviously the rest of the NFL did not see it that way, and Campbell is now settled in as a journeyman backup. With the talent that the Bengals have and the high tension from fans and the media on Andy Dalton, Campbell could see the field as a Bengal.

Brian Hoyer
Hoyer had the most detrimental injury of all quarterbacks last season. He was playing so well in a couple of games as a starter, and winning games on top of it. Who knows how much different May’s draft would have been if the Browns had won more games with Hoyer under center. The future is obviously Johnny Manziel. The question will be if Hoyer can hold off Manziel in camp. Also, if Johnny wins the job if he can remain healthy an entire season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
It’s not often a career journeyman quarterback gets the starting job so often. Fitzpatrick’s needs to pay his agent just a smidge more after his latest job in Houston. From the Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, and now Texans, Fitzpatrick has seen it all in his ten year career. For everyone of those teams he has been a starter. Three of those cases were due to injury (Titans, Rams, Bengals). One thing Fitzpatrick does do, is he goes out and lays it on the line each time he is on the field. Houston needs that desperately after what occurred last season.

Mike Vick
Does anyone besides the Jets PR writer, believe that the Jets truly expect Geno Smith to be their starting quarterback all season? The second Mike Vick was signed a kindergartner could put two and two together of what the future lies for the Jets. It’ll be Mike Vick likely before the preseason ends as the starter. Smith just does not have the accuracy or savvy to be a starting quarterback. This high draft pick mistake the Jets can admit their wrongdoing and move on accordingly. Unlike what they did with Mark Sanchez. Vick has been waiting for a true chance to push forth. He had it momentarily in Philadelphia, but got caught in his injury woes and Andy Reid’s last stand as an Eagles head coach.

If there is any veteran quarterback that can climb himself back into legitimate fantasy worthiness it’s Vick.

JUNE TOP TEN PPR RUNNING BACKS

Thursday, 12 June, 2014

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It’s mid-June, which means optimism for fantasy football drafts is right around the corner. Commissioners are already loading your inbox’s and sending you text messages about joining their league. Do yourself a favor and commit to the three leagues now, and tune out the bombardment of invitations that will come all summer.

Be sure to also ask a question on the scoring system of your possible league. If your not a fan of inflated points than be selective when giving the ok to join a league.

For PPR leagues that are out there you need to be dialed in for guys that are going to catch the football. It can make the world of difference in your week to week score, and ending up with a crushing defeat.

Here is an early look at backs that should end the season as a top ten PPR running back.

Darren Sproles
Sproles was already a dynamic force as the Saints cog out of the backfield. He has aged a bit and is on his third team in as many years. But Sproles still has the wheels to capitalize in the Eagles fast and furious offense. This is an Oregon blended Chip Kelly move. Sproles will torcher opposing fantasy football PPR leagues, while remaining as a likely third or fourth back in standard leagues.

Matt Forte
Forte is that back nearing that questionable phase of his career. He has hit bumps before in his career but somehow has maintained solid fantasy status. One of the main reasons he has been able to do so is because of the new system he is in. The Bears have a more open attack which is allowing for Forte to get out in open space. You have to wonder if the end is coming for him in a Bears uniform though. But for 2014 he is one of the few backs you can count on for duel credit as a rusher and pass catcher.

Le’Veon Bell
Bell was a back that drove some owners to the postseason and drove others nuts. He is a young back though that will be propelled to an even higher status this season as a Steeler. He still needs to find his balance statistically on a weekly basis before being rendered as a high value standard fantasy back. For PPR leagues though he is cemented as a worthy starter.

Others:

Jamaal Charles
His quarterback is one of the highest check down passers in the game in Alex Smith.

Reggie Bush
Bush remains on a team that will continue to utilize his unique skillset.

Danny Woodhead
Expect regression from last year’s out of nowhere performance from Woodhead. He’ll still have solid value though.

Chris Johnson
His new situation should refuel some fantasy value to Johnson.

Ray Rice
The Ravens won a Super Bowl based on Rice’s ability to create out of the backfield. Two years later and there are some big time questions lurking on his fantasy football projections.

Giovanni Bernard
Bernard is the new head honcho set to take the throne over older speed backs listed above.

Pierre Thomas
Thomas no longer has the high value he once held as a standard fantasy back. The value he does hold is strictly in PPR leagues.

POINTS AT THE SPORTSBOOK, I’LL TAKE THEM IN GAME FOUR

Thursday, 12 June, 2014

Danny Green is replicating his 2013 hot start in the Finals. Will he cool off like a year ago?

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One of the biggest mistakes sports bettors make is assuming. This team can’t lose again, or it’s going to be a blowout after what happened to them last game. Settings do change, as game four is yet another high stakes NBA Finals game.

But a 5.5 point spread is too many in my estimation. What we just saw a bit over 24 hours ago, is the same product producing an extra point to point and a half on the spread. Is there reason for this? The only reason is that Vegas and bettors are assuming the Heat are going to respond in blowout fashion. They have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation. A loss means they had to San Antonio in an elimination game five matchup.

What bettors should be thinking is that this is a golden opportunity to play the points. I gave out a premium play on the over in game three, and for game four I’m giving out a free play on the Spurs.

It’s a simple tactic in handicapping. What you see is what you get. Don’t assume, go off of results.

San Antonio has the arsenal to adjust on the fly. Early in the series the Heat made it a focus to shut down Tony Parker. It worked, so San Antonio shifted to their big man Tim Duncan. San Antonio shifted again to perimeter offense with the likes of Manu Ginobli, Patty Mills, and Danny Green. That still hasn’t been relegated. Heading into game four we still don’t know if the Heat have a new answer for Kawhi Leonard.

Any type of adjustment the Heat make the Spurs can counter it with more offense.

The bottom line is any Heat wins are going to be close in this series. They truly have to win a game down to the wire to out duel this Spurs team. It’s how they won a championship a year ago against the Spurs.

San Antonio is too experienced and well rounded of a team to be offered 5.5 points.

Take the points and you’ll be breathing easily going into halftime, unlike bettors with money on Miami.

DOWN SEASON LURKING FOR THE SAINTS

Wednesday, 11 June, 2014

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There is a point and team where regression is bound to happen. Everyone talks about the great run done by the Patriots, but in the NFC the Saints have had a great run themselves. Even a Super Bowl in more recent history than the Patriots. Things seem to be paired well with Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton.

After a roller coaster that resulted in a season length suspension for Payton, things got right back to where the Saints left off in 2013. Payton was able to pair the offense the way he knows best and allow Drew Brees to fire all across the football field.

Once the playoffs came though Brees hit the typical wall we are accustomed to seeing. Strong defensive lines that can pressure quickly off the line of scrimmage have given Brees fits. That would happen to any quarterback but with Brees’s height it becomes more troublesome.

Check the Saints regular season losses last year. There weren’t too many, but a common link can be found. Carolina, St. Louis, Seattle, and the Jets all had ferocious top defensive lines. By bottling up Brees’s pocket they limited the Saints passing attack to just four touchdowns in those four regular season games.

Successful systems can string together for a long time. But sooner or later a great coaching and quarterback duo hits that inevitable wall. Brees came to the Saints and did much more than anticipated. Age is undeniable. From a player standpoint and coaching standpoint.

The new age of the division is set to overtake the Saints just like the division did two years ago when Payton was suspended. Winning the first five games and seven of the first nine could partly be placed on Payton’s return and the Saints feeding off of it.

Expect this season to be a bit different and for the Saints to be a borderline playoff team. This will be a good team to take the under on total regular season wins.

CAN MIAMI’S OFFENSE TRANSFORM?

Wednesday, 11 June, 2014

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Watching the Dolphins last year as a fan you should of turned games off in the fourth quarter. An average season turned on several fourth quarters in which they let leads vanish. It was as if Miami could not hit that next gear offensively to over take a game. Playing it safe could work for three quarters before the opposing team would outplay the Dolphins.

Miami had to experience the dramatic losses they did if they wanted to entrust Ryan Tannehill as their future quarterback. Young starting quarterbacks are bound to make mistakes, and Tannehill made his share of alarming ones. By holding the football too long he had costly fumbles, including one against the Buffalo Bills, that would have netted Miami a win.

This will be a telling year for the Dolphins to see if they can entrust Tannehill 100 percent as the main signal caller. At times he would play outstanding. Delivering laser throws as he did in an early win at Indianapolis. Consistency just wasn’t up to par of a starting quarterback. You can say his play was comparable to old starting quarterback Chad Henne. Games mixed in with promise just weren’t enough to offset the common results.

The surprising early start from the Dolphins won’t shock anybody like it did in 2013. Teams will be prepared to rattle Ryan Tannehill and see if he has improved on his check downs throws. An area Miami hopes to see a boost in is in their running game. By adding Knowshown Moreno Miami hopes they can deliver the same triple threat the Broncos were able to emulate. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are still young backs but have shown they need a veteran starter ahead of them.

From a fantasy standpoint, Tannehill ranks as a high teen to low 20’s quarterback. For now. At times he has shown he can be a backup fantasy quarterback in situational matchups. The opportunity to rise higher is there for Tannehill if he is ready. I’m not sure he is just yet. I’d expect Miami to ease him into the 2014 season, and continue to play the ball control style they exhibited in 2013. But if the Dolphins are hovering around .500 again they are going to need to flip the switch with Tannehill.

This is the point of the season that owners may be able to gamble on Tannehill more as a fantasy option. Miami will test their investments worth and see if Tannehill can lead them beyond a mediocre season.