Posts tagged with “notjustagame.com”

THE GREG ODEN FACTOR

Friday, 20 June, 2014

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Once upon a time an injury coming out of college did not harm an athlete. NBA team doctors knew about Greg Oden’s injury history. Team’s do a thorough job and surely knew his back and knees were in poor shape. Even in college he had issues. Yet, the size and talent was too much to pass up for the Portland Trailblazers.

Oden’s plight as the number one pick was unfortunate. His comeback attempt this past season looks like it may be his last on the NBA floor. His knees are so bad that he couldn’t even practice on a regular basis for the Heat. Yet the Heat saw an opportunity to perhaps squeeze a little bit out of Oden for playoff basketball. It just wasn’t meant to be.

Nerlens Noel saw his sure-fire position of a number one pick crash to sixth last season. No longer were teams willing to say will wait on your future based on injury recovery.

Joel Emblid and Julius Randle could find themselves dreading the injury bug. Their soon to be million dollar pockets could be missing an extra number in front of the comma. Randle states that his foot injury from high school has healed fine. Rumors state that is not true. Around the NBA teams will let their medical technology give them the answer versus Randle’s.

For Emblid it is unforunate. The spotlight was already on him in the last phase of Kansas’s season. In contention to make a strong run in March Madness, Emblid was not able to go with a back injury. Now another development has occurred just a week before the NBA draft. It appears that Emblid has fractured his foot.

The injuries for Emblid aren’t debilitating to consider his career in jeopardy. Luckily they haven’t involved main ligaments in his knees. But being injury prone is surely a label attached to him now. Teams are not going to go out on a limb to draft him at number one. Cleveland or a team willing to trade up has likely cancelled those thoughts.

Now Emblid’s future rests on how far he will slip in the draft. It’s a sad situation for an athlete that has worked his butt off to get in this position. Two to three years ago he was just beginning to play the game. He came to Florida to finish high school without a clue that he would rise to the level he is at now.

When it’s all said and done next week, Emblid should still remain a top ten pick. When the dust clears maybe this is a better result for Emblid. The mindset from the fan base and team that drafts him is recovery. Let Emblid recover and practice his way onto the court.

After all he is just 20 years old. In all likelihood he would have had a tough time dealing with being the number one pick. Now people will have the mentality that he is injury prone and fell in the draft.

The Greg Oden factor could end up being exactly what Emblid needed at the beginning of his career.

IMPACT NEW FACES IN NEW PLACES

Thursday, 19 June, 2014

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The lure of a new contract or a team looking to cut salary cap dollars creates new opportunities. These players sometimes are high priced commodities and others are just roster depth acquisitions on new teams. Time on the field is worth the attention of fantasy football participants. Here are some athletes to keep an eye on for your fantasy football drafts. Their new situations should bode well in transitioning fantasy football points for you.

Quarterbacks: Mike Vick and Josh McCown
Free agent quarterbacks have not made much noise for the fantasy football world in quite some time. McCown comes to the Buccaneers after surprise production filling in for Jay Cutler in Chicago. No one truly knows what the Jets plans are for Vick or how much Vick has left in the tank. It is arguable though that both could surprise on the fantasy radar. Vick has had a history of strong results and McCown did so just last year. The talent is around both to have watchful eyes in 2014.

Running Backs: Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville), Ben Tate (Cleveland), Knowshown Moreno (Miami), Rashad Jennings (New York Giants), Chris Johnson (NY Jets), Darren Sproles (Philadelphia Eagles), Maurice Jones-Drew(Oakland Raiders), LeGarrette Blount (Pittsburgh)
Rookie contracts tend to take running backs into their third or fourth seasons. For those that are top dollar players, they almost certainly get resigned on their original drafted team. Most end up hitting the true free agent market after their second deals are expired. By then their value is on the decline. Teams look for a veteran fill in back such as Chris Johnson, Knowshown Moreno, MJD, Sproles, and Blount. All of these guys have backup role type of fantasy football value. Their value will be spiked based on the touchdowns they can get and not yardage.

Then you have the unheralded rookie contract backs that outperformed. Toby Gerhart did so in spot starts for Adrian Peterson. One has to wonder if Gerhart will end up being the next Peyton Hillis. Rashad Jennings had short stints in both Jacksonville and Oakland, but is still a fresh young back for the Giants. Ben Tate was arguably the top free agent signee and the Browns assured themselves of a solid back for the next couple of seasons.

You won’t find any top fifteen fantasy running backs in this group. Instead lower tier second running backs and regular fantasy backups. From the tandem back veteran group I would give Maurice Jones-Drew the highest upside. One the Raiders are likely tiring of Darren McFadden. Secondly, the Raiders have produced solid second tier strength backs over the years (Jennings/Bush). From the young crop of backs Jennings offers high intrigue. The Giants backfield is up for grabs. Coughlin being the old coach he is, could roll with a prominent back for a decent amount of carries. If Jennings ends up being the feature back, he could spark a move into a fantasy starting backfield.

Wide Receivers: Desean Jackson, Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Mike Williams, and Steve Smith
Out of all the main free agent position signees, wide receiver, has the biggest gap of high chance of return on investment. Drafting any of the aforementioned receivers is going to be a big risk. Even DeSean Jackson should pose as a red flag. He is in a pass friendly offense. But the same could be said all his years in Philadelphia. At times he would disappear even in the high passing offense with McNabb, Vick, Kolb, and Foles.

Golden Tate, Mike Williams, and Steve Smith are bottom tier bench fillers. A possible fifth or sixth spot on your team, with no patience if they don’t produce. All the years for Steve Smith as a number one receiver seem to have taken a big toll on him. I’d be surprised if he came close to 750 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Williams seems to be in trouble to make the Bills roster, and has had questionable character issues off the field. Sanders needs to show timely chemistry in the Broncos offense in a crowded position.

That leaves Eric Decker and Hakeem Nicks. Nicks could show a flash or too like he did as a Giant. But his injury history seems to have relegated him to a second or third option on an offense. Decker is the intriguing prospect. Can the Jets get their moneys worth? Signs are pointing that Decker likely was a system receiver in Denver, and that the Jets quarterback issues will weigh him down considerably.

TOP 20 FANTASY FOOTBALL TIGHT ENDS

Thursday, 19 June, 2014

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Graham is the only fantasy position ranking that won’t move in 2014.

It truly was not that long ago where tight ends use to be an after thought on fantasy football draft day. You had the Shannon Sharpe’s and Ben Coates of the world and then everybody else. Heck, there was even a time when certain fullbacks could be drafted for fantasy value (Larry Centers/Mike Alstott). It seems as the use of a fullback faded teams started to realize the value of a new breed tight end.

Slowly other NFL teams began to seek out a capable versatile pass catching tight end. Now we are at where we are today. A true top to bottom league with high end tight ends. This translates into a much more interesting position filler. Here is a look at June’s top twenty tight ends.

1. Jimmy Graham- His contract squabbles with the Saints is all financial. Once September comes along the Saints will be using the former U basketball player as a continued aerial assault killer. Graham’s basketball skills have truly helped transform his skills on the football field. Last year was amazing to see the repetition of throws Brees would throw his way. Yet he still would haul in a whopping percentage of them.

2. Julius Thomas- Last season was a make or break year for Thomas. Denver had kept him on through his struggles and believed in him. Finally last year he was able to breakout. At the same time he rose to fantasy football stardom. Continued growth from Thomas will keep the Broncos right where they’ve been. Deep into the post season.

3. Jordan Cameron- Even though Cameron’s quarterback is in question, I’ll still keep him as a top three tight end. He showed enough through the gauntlet of quarterbacks last season. This year he’ll have one of two options. Brian Hoyer, who he fared extremely well with last year, or rookie Johnny Manziel. Consider Cameron’s chances of a one year wonder non-existent.

4. Vernon Davis
5. Rob Gronkowski
6. Jason Witten
7. Charles Clay
8. Jermichael Finley
9. Martellius Bennett
10. Jordan Reed
11. Dennis Pitta
12. Eric Ebron
13. Antonio Gates
14. Zach Ertz
15. Coby Fleener
16. Garrett Graham
17. Tyler Eifert
18. DeLanie Walker
19. Dwayne Allen
20. LaDarius Green

INEVITABLE WALL HAS COME FOR BUERHLE

Thursday, 19 June, 2014

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Today oddmakers shifted the price on Mark Buerhle and the Toronto Blue Jays. The final number came in with Buerhle and the Blue Jays being a slight underdog. A lot of that pricing has to do with the Blue Jays woes on the road–having lost fourteen straight at New York.

After winning seven straight games in May, Buerhle lost his first two in June. One came in a rough outing against Baltimore and another was caused by a command issue against St. Louis. In the game against St. Louis he gave up five walks.

Starting off the year at 10-1, oddsmakers had no choice but to shift odds negatively on Buerhle’s side. Paying a high price for Buerhle’s dominating pitching is not the position you want to be in now. It’s something you should have been on a month ago.

Dominating veteran pitchers have not been something we have not seen in the past. It’s happened before and June can be a tricky month to bet for them. Typically you want to scout those games and wait until after the all star break.

If the pitcher shows signs of continued regression for the rest of June, you may see a bigger decline in July and August.

Since 2006, Buerhle has only had one season in which he had over 13 wins, and that was a 15 win season. The law of averages suggest it’s going to be a rough tumble for Buerhle over the next few months.

As his arm starts to wear and more hits occur, the pricing may just be right to bet a streak of games on the opposing team.

SPURS THE DUKE OF PROFESSIONAL HOOPS

Wednesday, 18 June, 2014

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Cashing in on great performances under the spotlight is nothing new. Who can forget cornerback Larry Brown from the Dallas Cowboys? He had two interceptions that were right to him from Neil O’Donnell in the Super Bowl. He won MVP and combined that fortunate night to a big payday with the Oakland Raiders.

In the NBA, Robert Horry made his living in the playoffs. Year after year he would shine once late April, May, and June arrived. In the regular season though he was a below average player. JJ Barea flourished as a Dallas Maverick which in turn led to his big contract for Minnesota. And now Patty Mills seems to be the latest in line to get an unexpected profitable contract in a few weeks.

He was one of many catalysts for the Spurs that ignited their sizzling offense. With the Spurs ball movement working to perfection, Mills was often wide open for three point shots. Yes he did make them, but the fact is he was wide open 90% of the time. Mills did help his cause by playing sound defense and causing a few offensive fouls.

I’m just not sure Mills is going to warrant a big contract. He shined for the Spurs in relatively a small scale of minutes. The bulk of these minutes either came against the Heat’s second unit (nothing to write home about) or against the Heat’s first unit with a big lead in hand. Most of those big leads the Heat’s first team was gassed. Spoelstra was just trying to seek out a counter run with his starters in the game.

Jeff Van Gundy did a fine job pointing out that Mills is realistically 5’8 and not 6’0. This was even more evident when the Spurs were on the floor for their NBA title. While standing next to all of his teammates including Tony Parker, Mills looked much shorter than six feet.

A lot of teams are going to be giving Mills a call to detract him from San Antonio. Poppovich and the Spurs likely won’t be able to match any big offers, and are prepared to let him go. Just last summer, Mills was in Las Vegas for the summer league with a roster spot up in the air. His conditioning and work ethic in the offseason is what propelled him past former first round pick Cory Joseph.

Starter’s minutes might not be the best thing for Patty Mills. Undersized he would be vulnerable to a nightly beating. Also, he never really gave the Spurs a spark as a passing point guard. The Spurs moved the ball well as a team not individually. It’ll be a part of his game we have not seen on the professional level, if he is capable of running a team as an individual.

You can compare the Spurs to Duke in college basketball. They get the best out of all their players but a transition to a new team doesn’t always pan out. Duke has always received a label of sending bust athletes to the NBA. San Antonio typically does a good job in keeping their talent, but they’ve had a few leave as part of trades or free agents.

The last to do so that played well as a Spur was George Hill. To say Hill has not lived up to his trade value for Indiana is an understatement.

Mills agent and Mills should seek the best contract he can get. But at the end of the day I don’t see Mills capable of being an every day starter.

JUNE WIDE RECEIVER RANKINGS

Wednesday, 18 June, 2014

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1. Calvin Johnson- Johnson still qualifies as the best receiver. Just do not expect the all world numbers of a year ago.
2. Dez Bryant- There was a large stretch of last season that it looked like Bryant would hold the top receiver ranking in the NFL. This from a receiver that people were dogging just a few seasons ago. He has turned it around and will eventually supplant Johnson.
3. Brandon Marshall- Since Marshall has worked on his image and his conduct, he has been off the charts. Him and his wife need to thank the Bears organization for dragging him out of Miami.
4. AJ Green- I have some concerns over the Bengals offense this upcoming season. They haven’t limited Green thus far in his career, but a regression from Dalton surely would. Jason Campbell is not an electric quarterback from a fantasy standpoint.
5. Julio Jones- All eyes are expectant of Jones and the Falcons offense to regain its form.
6. Alshon Jeffrey- Jeffrey did wonders on two of my fantasy football teams last year. He’ll get repaid by owners like myself, and attraction from everyone else that saw his dynamic games. The only reason he isn’t higher is because Marshall is obviously Cutler’s top target still.
7. Keenan Allen- Allen resurrected franchises that picked him up off the waiver wire. Each week we kept waiting for his one month wonder, than two month wonder to end. It never did. Philip Rivers has shown in his career that when he finds a top target, he is going to keep hitting them. Those figuring Allen will slip this year should think again.
8. DeMaryius Thomas- I fully believe that this season is going to be a slightly different approach from the Broncos offense. Manning will not have the type of seasons we have seen the past two years. Instead expect them to run the football more to prepare properly for teams in the playoffs like the Seahawks.
9. Antonio Brown- Pittsburgh has been too strong of an organization to slip another season. Brown has seen Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders depart the past few seasons. It’s his role to flourish in and he will for fantasy football fans.
10. Larry Fitzgerald- Fitz is going to be one of those career long great wide receivers that keeps his name and respect amongst the NFL and fantasy football participants.
11. Randall Cobb
12. Vincent Jackson
13. Pierre Garcon
14. Andre Johnson
15. Torrey Smith
16. Jordy Nelson
17. Michael Crabtree
18. Victor Cruz
19. TY Hilton
20. Roddy White
21. Julian Edelman
22. Wes Welker
23. Cordarelle Patterson
24. Jeremy Maclin
25. Mike Wallace
26. Marques Colston
27. Kendall Wright
28. Cecil Shorts
29. Riley Cooper
30. Michael Floyd
31. Eric Decker
32. Mike Evans
33. Danny Amendola
34. Emmanuel Sanders
35. Percy Harvin
36. Dwayne Bowe
37. Reuben Randle
38. Tavon Austin
39. Robert Woods
40. DeAndre Hopkins
41. Golden Tate
42. Steve Smith
43. Brian Hartline
44. Brandin Cooks
45. Doug Baldwin
46. Anquan Boldin
47. Sammy Watkins
48. Marvin Jones
49. Terrance Williams
50. Greg Jennings