Posts tagged with “notjustagame.com”

MLB MONDAY FREE PLAY: TAMPA BAY VS YANKEES

Monday, 30 June, 2014

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Today’s free play comes in the Tampa Bay vs New York. The Yankees are coming off a horrible Sunday night outing against Boston. Value on today’s game is set currently at -105 on both the Yankees and Rays.

Tampa Bay is coming off a great series against the Baltimore Orioles. They displayed some hitting for the first time in consecutive games that transferred into wins. Duplicating that will be the goal as Chris Archer takes the mound today. Archer has arguably been the best rotation pitcher for the Rays. Commanding complete control of games with a great fastball and long outings.

He had a solid month and a half on the mound before having a rough outing against Pittsburgh. His strikeout rate has not waned but he is starting to show a bit of inconsistency for walks and hits. The Yankees are not struggling hitting the ball and should be able to produce runs.

Those looking at Tampa Bay and expecting a replication of strong bats need to calm down. They’ve struggled all season. Now is the time to capitalize on value on the Yankees. Enjoy and good luck on today’s play.

TOP TEN DYNASTY LEAGUE QUARTERBACKS

Wednesday, 25 June, 2014

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Dynasty leagues continue to grow in popularity. Having the authority to retain players is the essence of being a general manager. Standard leagues owners can make mistakes and file for bankruptcy the following year—full clearance to redraft and disown their past mistakes. While in a dynasty league you would need to dig yourself out of mistakes by trying to grab young athletes.

Preparation for the future is also a must in a dynasty league. You may have a Tom Brady or elite veteran quarterback keeping you atop, but in a few years who is to say Brady is relevant still?

Here are the top ten dynasty league quarterbacks (QB’s in the league four years or less) for potential and upside.

1. Colin Kaepernick-
Kaepernick has the vote of confidence from the 49ers with his new contract. Unlike Mike Vick and other mobile quarterbacks of the past, Kaepernick has great size. He’ll be able to take the licks that other quarterbacks couldn’t. Look for Kaepernick’s progression to start to come to fruition in 2014.

2. Andrew Luck-
As Luck’s years progress he’ll lose the current mobility he uses to rank ahead of Kaepernick now. Where he’ll stay out in front of the rest of the league is with his arm and pocket presence. Indianapolis has always been great at keeping a steady group of consistent receivers.

3. Nick Foles-
Assuming Chip Kelly remains a coach in Philadelphia this pair should be a connection for awhile. Kelly’s offense showed last year it had no problem transitioning to the NFL. Counting on Foles to slump could appear for a mini stretch, but not enough to force him out of a top twelve fantasy quarterback.

4. RG3-
We may never see the RG3 from his rookie season. A second blownout knee just may be the dagger to that. He has the arm strength to be a flourishing passer. He just needs to convince Washington that.

5. Cam Newton-
Newton and the Panthers may have been the top team for blanketing their inefficiencies last season. Carolina won a bunch of games last year with ball control game plans. Sooner or later the team will need to find out if Newton can carry the team when needed.

6. Russ Wilson-
Wilson is who he is. I don’t think he’ll ever be a top tier fantasy quarterback. Similar to Eli Manning in his Super Bowl days, I’d expect Wilson to range between the ten to sixteen fantasy range.

7. Johnny Manziel-
The unknown is with Manziel. His maturation will be before our eyes in no time. Barring injury I fully expect him to rise to the occasion. He’ll continue to find a way to utilize his mobility and uncanniness to create on the run. It may take awhile for the Browns to be a playoff contender, but they’ll have new fans each and every week.

8. Ryan Tannehill
9. EJ Manuel
10. Teddy Bridgewater

WHAT VALUE DO SAINTS RB’S HAVE?

Monday, 23 June, 2014

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Perhaps no team in football has been as tortuous as the New Orleans Saints to figure out their stable of running backs. Pierre Thomas has had the highest prime value for the Saints. He went from a high carry back to an inordinate amount of carries. Last year his fantasy worthiness almost came exclusively out of the backfield.

The Saints have used a platoon of running backs intermittently that drives fantasy owners nuts. With Darren Sproles departed to the Eagles, it leaves the same backfield of players. Is the Saints backfield being overlooked from a fantasy standpoint because of this? Likely so.

It seems odd to think about, but Darren Sproles has been a main key to Brees career. Out in San Diego, Sproles played the lightning bolt to LT. When he became a free agent the Saints went after Sproles to replace Reggie Bush’s role. He filled it admirably.

Now who will Brees have to be his Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles?

Both guys were fantasy havens for PPR leagues and combined yards of rushing and receiving. It was a toss up between Sproles and Pierre Thomas for more effective fantasy running back. Neither lit the fantasy scoreboard on a weekly basis, but did just enough to be fantasy running back three or four.

Who is going to catch the out of the backfield receptions for the Saints? Sproles had over 70 catches for the Saints each of the last three seasons.

Based on the Saints current roster, you’d have to believe the Saints are planning on reducing Pierre Thomas’s carries some more. They dwindled quite a bit last year as he boosted his performance out of the backfield. Last year he caught 77 passes for over 500 yards. Before that career season he had over 40 catches just once in his eight year career. His yards per carry dipped to a career low of just 3.7 yards last season. This should be clear evidence that the Saints want to use Thomas as their Sproles/Bush 100 percent.

That leaves the big void of whom will be the Saints main tail back for rushing the football. Mark Ingram has been nothing short of a disappointment in his stint as a Saint. The former Heisman Trophy winner has struggled with injuries and consistency. One bright sign from Ingram was his finish to the 2013 season. He had two games in which he came close to 100 yards, including in a playoff victory over the Eagles. In the divisional round he did have a costly fumble against the Seahawks though.

The Saints other two running backs are Khiry Robinson and Travaris Cadet. Robinson had spots a year ago where he looked like he would overtake the main running back duties. It just never materialized and left fantasy owners regretful on taking a flyer on him.

Maybe that was a move warranted for this upcoming season. Robinson will likely have a fair amount of carries with Ingram. For now it’d be hard to rank one higher than the other. You’d expect the Saints to give Ingram every chance to gain the upper hand on the time split, but Ingram’s proven to drop the ball when given opportunities.

I’d still downgrade Ingram and have an asterisk on Cadet stealing some thunder from both. New Orleans has too many receptions and carries available to have fantasy eyes drifting. If you’re anti-Ingram take your shot in later rounds on Cadet or Robinson.

MLB MONDAY FREE PLAY

Monday, 23 June, 2014

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For Monday’s free play, we are going to take a look at game one of Miami vs Philadelphia. The Marlins are starting to show signs of fatigue with their bats and bullpen. Strong starts by their starters have been nullified by poor hitting and bullpen woes lately.

In the last two games against the Mets, Miami rested some of their regular starters to get new life in the lineup. It worked a bit as Miami scored five runs yesterday. It wasn’t enough to offset a poor outing from the starting pitcher in Anthony DeSciafani. A tired bullpen stood know chance and allowed four more runs—for a total of 11.

Philadelphia on the other hand, has finally found a groove with their batting order. They’re getting runs from all areas of their lineup. Suddenly they’re back in contention after no signs of hope a few weeks ago.

I’m not sure the Phillies can sustain the way they’re playing. This same lineup has been configured for multiple years, and is what it is.

But for the first game of this series the money is on the over. Nathan Eovaldi has had solid numbers but is being relied on to much by the Marlins staff. Trying to compensate for a poor bullpen has meant leaving in Eovaldi for seven innings a start.

Expect the Phillies to get an early run and a few later before Eovaldi exits. The way the Marlins bullpen is right now, they’re assured an additional run or two late.

With that said, I also expect the Marlins bats to get out of their week and a half long slump. Roberto Hernandez is the perfect pitcher for the Marlins swing for the fences type of lineup. He is inconsistent with his delivery. Facing a power lineup like the Marlins is a disaster waiting to happen for Hernandez.

This will be one of those high scoring affairs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Miami have a four run inning.

Play the over today.

Top Backup QB’s Likely to Hit Field in 2014

Sunday, 22 June, 2014

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Pencil Vick as a starter now. He’ll be the opening day quarterback for the Jets.

It’s inevitable that the majority of NFL teams will need to utilize their backup quarterbacks at some point. Causes can range from injuries, blowouts, or even poor play. Stretches of backup quarterbacks on the field equate to an opportunity from a fantasy standpoint. Seventy percent of these situations usually are void of a fantasy juggernaut. Then there’s the quarterbacks capable of stepping right in and keeping the offense rolling.

Josh McCown did such a fine job that many wanted him to remain the Bears starter. Matt Flynn did not wow anyone with his on field demeanor but had a few games that he performed decent.

Everyone in the fantasy football world has their insurance 100 percent covered at running back and wide receiver. These dual starter positions usually get five to six players drafted on each fantasy team. Quarterbacks tend to be the forgotten insured position. People will draft their sure-fire starter and not give much consideration to the backup. After all they think they’ll be starting their starter all thirteen fantasy football weeks. Be prepared for any possibilities this season. Here are some current backup quarterbacks that likely will get their chance on the football field. They may even end up being a catalyst to help you win on your fantasy football team.

Johnny Manziel
I just wrote a piece on Manziel being a top twelve fantasy quarterback in the month of November. One thing you can count on from fantasy football owners is impatience. Some owners work the trade and waiver wire market too much. Chances are Manziel won’t be stashed away in the majority of fantasy football leagues. By late October I expect him to start. He’ll work his wonders for the month of November.

Michael Vick
Vick is being his own perfect public relations facilitator right now. Everything he states to the media has been politically correct. He stands behind and believes in Geno Smith. We all know that Vick is in New York to try and write a last chapter to his career. Being a permanent backup was the last thing on his mind. The book we saw on Geno Smith last year just has the makings for more early season disasters. New York may start Smith just to procure Vick’s health. He hasn’t been durable the last four years. Maybe bringing him in as starter in late September or October protects him for the rest of the season. Bottom line is that Vick will be on the field, maybe as early as week one.

Brandon Weeden
No one truly knows Kyle Orton’s plans. By bringing in Weeden, Dallas is showing their support to lean on Weeden as the backup. Cowboys fans know all too well Tony Romo’s injury history. Dallas’s organization has been quiet in regards to Romo’s health. Unless Dallas reshapes their offensive playbook, it’ll be a matter of time before Weeden steps onto the field. Their pass happy offense leaves quarterbacks vulnerable to big hits.

Thad Lewis
EJ Manuel missed time on the field on two different occasions last season. For the most part Manuel was a pocket passer. If he doesn’t learn to make quicker decisions with the football, he’ll have more setbacks in 2014. Buffalo kept themselves prepared with Lewis. Lewis shined in a couple of spot starts last year. Buffalo has a solid group of young receivers that was bolstered with the signing of Mike Williams and drafting of Sammy Watkins.

Shaun Hill
Hill seems like he has been in the NFL forever. Throughout his career he has been perceived as a solid backup. While in Detroit he filled in well when Matt Stafford went down. In St. Louis, fans and the media believe this is their year to make a move in the NFC. Sam Bradford is likely on his last leg if he can’t fulfill the first pick he was garnered. If the team struggles, Hill will become the starter, with assets galore offensively around him.

Charlie Whitehurst
Tennessee is making it clear to Locker he needs to become a more consistent quarterback. Some of the blame could go on the shoulders of an unsustainable running game with Chris Johnson. He is gone and the Titans did a fine job filling that position by signing Dexter McCluster and drafting Bishop Sankey. Locker is a veteran now and needs to start playing like one. Tennessee did the right thing by signing Whitehurst and drafting Zach Mettenburger.

Matt Moore
Miami burned an above average season with putrid losses. Most of their close losses were caused by single or multiple game killing plays by Ryan Tannehill. When they were winning though, he played a big part in their success. That’s expected for a second year quarterback. In his third season Tannehill must nix those mistakes. He has to show better control for an entire football game. If the play isn’t there, he must throw the football away. Miami’s team is very similar to last year. It’s one of the few teams in football that kept their roster at quarterback the same. Moore has been a fill in starter before in Carolina and in Miami during Chad Henne’s final season.

Kirk Cousins
RG3 supporters are all expecting him to answer to last years debacle with a bang in 2014. In college he responded by winning the Heisman two years after blowing out his knee. It’s going to take a complete 360 from RG3 to get back to his level of 2012. It may be in him, but there is no discounting his second major knee injury. Until he shows that same burst and speed, I won’t be a full believer. Washington sat him the last two games of last year as precaution, but who knows if he further damaged his knee the first fourteen games of the season. As has been the case the past two years, Kirk Cousins will be ready if need be.

NFL: SUMMER FUTURES MOVEMENT

Saturday, 21 June, 2014

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We’re still several months away from week one of the NFL season. That doesn’t stop the futures market from swaying in June. Just a few days ago the Denver Broncos were the Super Bowl favorites. Now it has shifted back to the defending Super Bowl Champion, Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are now right above 5-1 while Denver is listed at 6-1.

A future market for a championship can be very tricky. Typically the odds are going to be heavily favored on the top teams from a year ago. So it’s no surprise that the Seahawks have regained the top spot. Pete Carroll’s system has shown it’s high value. With the strength of their team still entact, they deserve to remain odds on favorites. Then again, there has not been a repeat Super Bowl Champion since the Cowboys did it in the 90’s.

In my estimation I believe the value remains on the Denver Broncos. Yes they were dismantled in the Super Bowl, but they faced an onslaught in the Seahawks. John Elway teamed with John Fox and Peyton Manning will regroup. Remember Fox has been to the Super Bowl before with Carolina. Denver’s organization as a whole has had success in the 80’s and 90’s. The key component to their success was Elway who has made some sound decisions as GM.

The age of Peyton Manning is undeniable. What is not is the fact that he remains a top quarterback in the NFL. Media members want to crush him for his poor playoff record, and the fact that he is one hit away from his career ending. Name a quarterback starting in today’s world and you’ll only find two starting quarterbacks with more titles than Manning. His brother and Ben Roethlisberger. It’s a rare feat to win two championships.

Building pieces to Manning’s success in Denver has been so rampant that people forget it’s only been two years. This will be the third season. Defensively they keep upgrading and offensively they just keep climbing uphill. The playoff blocks that have got in their way are soon to come crumbling down.

Truthfully if it weren’t for the Seahawks immense defense last year, Denver would likely have won the Super Bowl. It’s not often that you see teams back in the Super Bowl off their defensive efforts. Tampa Bay couldn’t do it in the early 2000’s, Chicago couldn’t make it back after losing to Peyton, etc.

San Francisco and New Orleans were a drive away from ending Seattle’s title run.

Sports bettors are eyeing the over/under win season totals. Getting the Broncos at 6-1 should be a top priority. In the regular season this will likely lay down to 4-1 or lower from September through January.