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Ray Rice is coming off his worst season as a professional in 2013. On top of that he has created his own issues off the field and will serve a two game suspension. Upon returning to the Ravens lineup in week three fantasy football owners have to decide his value. According to fantasy football “experts” they have him downgraded in the bottom 20’s and lower 30’s for fantasy running backs.

That’s awfully low for a guy that still will receive over 200 carries and netted 1,000 yards rushing and receiving. Compared to his prior seasons in the NFL a drop in fantasy rankings was dictated. His production as a 1,000 yard back and 6-700 yards receiving fell too ultra lows.

Owners stayed patient with him for the majority of the season expecting a turn around at some point. With results unchanged in a sixteen game season it seems all fantasy pundits have wrote off Rice–in affect he has hit the running back wall.

At this low of value Rice could be considered a steal. Certainly as a back rated in the high 20’s to low 30’s he is considered a non-fantasy football starter in ten/twelve team leagues. This makes him an intriguing prospect in my eyes. Of course I did not own him in any of my leagues last year, therefore, I’m not a bitter buyer of Rice.

One back Rice could imitate in terms of fantasy football is Matt Forte. Forte, after an impressive rookie season faded back in years two and three. Most considered him a non-starter as year four came around. A new offense and personnel vastly changed Forte’s value.

Obviously the Ravens have been in a reconstructive phase offensively. Rice was their primary weapon for several years and teams were ready for that finally a season ago. That coupled with Joe Flacoo’s struggles with inadequate receiving weapons, left a team hindered offensively.

I’m not saying Ray Rice is going to surge back to a top five fantasy running back. I am saying that he can get himself back into the range of a top 20 back.

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Bookmakers offshore and books in Vegas are grinning from ear to ear as football has finally arrived. The bait has been set for the preseason football game. The Bills versus the Giants spread currently sits at 2.5 points in favor of the Bills.

The perfect line to make you think a little bit on what Vegas is thinking. Remember a line is set to draw both sides.

I’m not going to give much analysis with the teams on the field, that’d just be silly. Instead I’ll give advice on to why the Bills are favored.

Buffalo has a cast of young athletes and has shown in the past to utilize undrafted free agents as starters or second string players. Just take a look at the merry go round of receivers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had (David Nelson, etc).

A younger head coach in Doug Marrone should be testing his players a bit more than the veteran in Tom Coughlin in preseason game one. Though the Giants have a lot to prove they’re still going to count heavily on veterans, more than the Bills.

Vegas may have the point spread tilted to the draw they want. Before flashing your money in front of the sportsbook counter, I’d advise to wait. As I stated on twitter betting on preseason football is not necessary. Definitely not in week one of preseason. Your odds are better playing roulette. It’s way to unpredictable. Once you get into week three of the preseason that’s a different story.

A fact to remember about young teams is easy. Think back to your first time playing under the bright lights. Okay. Now think about watching a college basketball team or football team led by underclassmen. Transfer those thoughts to a professional level. Your position and job are under more scrutiny. Pressure is intensified to prove yourself.

What typically happens in those scenarios? Pressure on young athletes leads to mistakes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see careless plays from the Bills. With the speed of football careless plays lead to turnovers, missed block assignments, tackling woes, etc.

Enjoy the canton speech and keep that money safe for two weeks down the road.

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Tonight’s free play in major league baseball comes in the Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles. Currently the Mariners are +142 and still on the rise as bettors pour money on the Orioles. The reason for this rise is because the Mariners struggled mightily just a few days ago against Chen. They were only able to draw five hits and mustered zero runs.

That fact is the draw in, but the Mariners have a draw in themselves. Roenis Elias has shook off some dreadful starts in late June/early July. In his last two starts, including one against the Orioles he allowed just two runs in ten innings of work.

He isn’t able to go seven innings but a controlled outing is all the Mariners need. They’re offense has looked a bit better and should be able to produce off of Chen this time around.

This is an extremely valuable plus payout for Friday. Take the Mariners as close to the start of this game as you can.

There is also a premium play on the board going for $20. Click on today’s picks.

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Under today’s picks I have two premium plays available. For a free play selection we are going to look at the total in Diamondbacks and Cubs. Both of these teams are not offensive juggernauts, therefore the total lies at 7.5 runs. On the mound are two pitchers that have far exceeded pitching expectations.

Josh Collmenter came out of the bullpen to be a saving grace for the Diamondbacks. At stretches in May and early June he was there only reliable pitcher. Collmenter though does not have overpowering pitches or durability. He typically can pitch a maximum of six innings.

For the Cubs, Jake Arrieta has been pitching out of his mind. He has come close to a no hitter and had a fantastic June. He has been almost non hittable. Even though he gave up three runs in his last start it was off of just four hits.

Post All-Star breaks you’ll usually see pitching wane considerably. Mark Buerhle saw his digression before the break. I think you’ll start to see that with both Arrieta and Collmenter. Arrieta has assumed the role of Cubs dominant pitcher with the departure of Hammel and Samardzija. The mess in Arizona has been well-documented and needs no further elaboration.

Though you may have a hard time watching both the Cubs and Diamondbacks offense, sit back and wait for that half inning outbreak. This total will surpass 7.5.

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YESTERDAY’S FREE PLAY WON ON THE UNDER IN THE ANGELS AND MARINERS. TODAY I HEAD BACK TO THE SUMMER LEAGUE IN LAS VEGAS. THE TOURNAMENT PART OF THE SUMMER LEAGUE IS DOWN TO THE FINAL EIGHT TEAMS. LETS FOCUS ON THE BOBCATS VS KNICKS.

ONE THING I FULLY BELIEVE AS A HANDICAPPER IS WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET. SOMETIMES PEOPLE WILL DIVE TOO MUCH INTO TRENDS INSTEAD OF TRUSTING THEIR EYES. DURING THE PACERS HEAVY SLUMP IN THE SPRING, ODDSMAKERS WERE STILL BELIEVING THE PACERS OF DECEMBER AND JANUARY. IT LED TO SPORTS BETTORS DOING THE SAME WHEN THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN TRUSTING THEIR EYES.

JUST A FEW DAYS AGO THE BOBCATS AND KNICKS MET IN THE SUMMER LEAGUE AND IT WAS THE MOST LOPSIDED PLAYED SUMMER LEAGUE GAME IN VEGAS. NEW YORK WAS WINNING BY 35 POINTS AT THE END OF THE THIRD QUARTER AND HAD A HALFTIME LEAD OF 33 POINTS.

THEY USED THEIR TRIANGLE OFFENSE TO RUN CIRCLES AROUND CHARLOTTE. THIS CHARLOTTE TEAM’S BEST OFFENSIVE WEAPON IS PJ HAIRSTON. HAIRSTON HAS COME ALONG THE LAST FEW GAMES ALONG WITH CODY ZELLER. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THIS TEAM’S STRENGTH IS DEFENSIVELY.

THE TRIANGLE IS TOO MUCH FOR AN OFFENSIVELY CHALLENGED TEAM TO OVERCOME IN THE SUMMER LEAGUE. TRUST THE RESULTS OF THE BLOWOUT A FEW DAYS AGO AND PLAY IT AGAIN HERE.

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Summer league action has been great thus far. Free play posts keep winning so I’ll head there again before baseball returns. The Golden State Warriors had won 9 straight summer league games before suffering a loss to the Lakers on Monday.

In my estimation this Warriors squad is getting bookmaker love to entice the public betting market. Their first win over the Phoenix Suns has kept that momentum going. An overtime loss is not enough to get the bandwagon off the Warriors just yet.

But today should. This Golden State roster is not of summer league’s past. The Warriors rode the hot hands of Draymond Green, Ken Bazemore, and other catalysts the prior two summer league’s. Keep in mind this Warriors team did not have a draft pick this season. All players on their roster are practically undrafted free agents.

Rodney McGruder, James Michael McAdoo, Justin Holiday, and Aaron Craft are getting the bulk of the Warriors minutes alongside veteran free agent, Orlando Johnson and a few foreign players.

Atlanta is winless in the summer league but has had the toughest schedule thus far. They lost the D-League select by a bucket, the Wizards who have had a two-man show with Otto Porter/Glen Rice Jr, and the veteran driven Trailblazers (Barton, McCollum, Freeland, and Thomas Robinson).

They’re 0-3 squared with the public mentality of the Warriors is a catalyst for today’s free play.

Free throws have been a detriment for many teams in the summer league. Atlanta though has made 63 of 77 (81%). Golden State along with every other team is shooting a woeful 68%, 61 for 89.

I’ll take the four points tonight.