Posts tagged with “notjustagame.com”

NFL: SEPTEMBER SCHEDULING HINDERANCES AND HOME COOKING

Wednesday, 6 August, 2014

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One of the most underrated hinderances to a successful handicapper is the ability to look ahead. No human being on this face of the Earth can escape the thought of the future. Present day thoughts may include what’s for dinner, what you are going to watch later, or what you’ll be doing that evening. Future thoughts can include various things as well, like vacations, goals, etc.

When handicapping, some cappers and non-professional bettors will get locked in to that present day only. They don’t glance at the injury report, the amount of travel a team has endured, or how many consecutive games they’ve played at home. It’s an odd thing I see happen almost strictly for handicapping the NFL.

It must have something to do with a shortened season compared to other professional sports. Knowing a teams travels from September through December is a must.

Athletes are human too. They like to be at home around their families for as long as they can. We see teams come out on fire in September all because of a great schedule. Here are a few teams that have a favorable stretch of home games or a tough job ahead of them on the road in September.

For the most part the NFL does a great job intermixing home and away games, but there are always a few teams that suffer a bit or get a scheduling boost.

Chicago Bears
Four of the Bears first six games are on the road. This will help the Bears in November and December as teams have to travel to Solider Field in the brutal cold. But it’s not going to help them get off to a sound start. Three of their away games the Bears will surely be underdogs. Against the 49ers, Falcons, and Panthers. The other is in New York against the Jets. Bears bettors that placed the over on 8.5 wins will be gritting their teeth early on in the season.

Green Bay Packers
Another NFC North team that has to travel early-season. Green Bay will be on the road three of their first four games. Not only does that probably make Mike McCarthy unhappy but they kickoff the NFL season on Thursday at Seattle. On the brighter side for the Packers the other two road games are against divisional opponents.

New Orleans
Though New Orleans has three of their first four games on the road as well, they have favorable matchups. They’ll face the Browns, Cowboys, and Falcons. Atlanta is game one which has historically been a great showdown. All three teams are coming into this season off of lows a year ago. To get three road games out of the way early against these teams may benefit the Saints.

Tampa Bay
Currently the Bucs win total are floating between 7 and 7.5. Optimism around this team circles around their youth maturing after a year ago. It may be possible, but they’ll be tested in the early stages of the season. After two home games the Bucs get three straight on the road. A week three Thursday game against the Falcons, followed by Pittsburgh and the Saints. Ouch!

New England
I’ll have to slate the Patriots first three of four on the road in the same category as the Saints. Rather mediocre. The Patriots opponents will be Miami, Minnesota, and Kansas City on the road. Sandwiched in their third game is a home game against the Raiders. It’s safe to say the Patriots will be road favorites against both the Dolphins and Vikings. Depending on how KC starts the season that spread will be tilted slightly likely in the Chiefs favor.

Jets
Maybe Rex Ryan has finally caught a break. Three of their first four games are at home. Not only that but the Jets get their NFC opponents almost all out of the way. They’ll face the Packers, Lions, and Bears from week two to week four.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Have you already made that bet on the Steelers over their 2014 set win total? They won’t be on my official list to do so. Four of their first six games are on the road. It is followed up by three straight home games but I’ll pass on this Steelers team. Their type of football and the division their in always makes the Steelers a pass versus bet team in my book.

Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco and the Ravens get three of their first four games at home. Albeit, against divisional rivals in the Bengals and Steelers. Week four they face Carolina at home. The Ravens need this strong start to not play chase in their division all season.

Tennessee Titans
Boy the Titans are not happy campers with their September schedule. For a team that didn’t make the playoffs you’d think they did. They only get one home game in September and that’s against the Dallas Cowboys. Their three road games are against the Bengals, Colts, and Chiefs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles welcome to the NFL….or veteran Chad Henne, prepared to get supplanted in a hurry. Whoever starts off the bat for the Jaguars gets to face the Redskins, Eagles, and Chargers three of the first four games of the season. If Henne is named starter (probably will) watch the Eagles line move closer to 14. The double-whammy for Henne as he will be thinking about his opponents and his job being taken.

Denver Broncos
Denver’s early season schedule has an eery “hmmm” feel to it. Sort of like the Cavaliers getting the first pick yet again. Denver has two home games followed by one on the road. Then they have a bye week in which they return to play at home again in week five. Theoretically including their bye week, Denver will be at home six of the first eight weeks. A plan to keep Manning fresh is inevitable. Fantasy football owners better expect a scaled back season.

Others: St Louis–It’s not early in the season but they have four of five road games in November.

MLB FREE MID-WEEK PLAY: TOTAL MIAMI VS PITTSBURGH

Wednesday, 6 August, 2014

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For Wednesday were going to take a look at the Pirates and Marlins. The first game in their series was a dreadful six to seven innings to watch. Neither team could advance base runners and featured multiple double plays.

The game flipped when Pittsburgh’s bullpen entered the game with two on and one out in the top of the eighth. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been shaky all year and Miami took advantage of it. Two runs were walked in, along with a sac fly, single, and a double by Christian Yelich. Suddenly the Marlins had scored five runs and led 6-2.

I’m going to ignore that half inning tonight and focus on what these two teams have struggled with over the last week to week and a half. Hitting. Miami struggled in their series against the Reds, and Pittsburgh had an up and down series against the Diamondbacks.

Tom Koehler has had a couple of decent outings after an atrocious few starts in the early part of July.

Until Miami can break out and show they can put up runs multiple innings, unders should be a safe trend when they have a solid ace on the mound.

Take it tonight, as Locke and Koehler should prevent their respective bullpens from entering before the 7th.

TIGER WOODS BACK WOES SHOULD TRIGGER ROMO WORRIES

Tuesday, 5 August, 2014

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Surgeries often get thought of as risk-free if it does not involve a knee, foot, or ankle. Fans and media give off the vibe that other surgeries are less cumbersome.

Cowboys fans and sports bettors should key in on an injury that just took place in the golf world. Tiger Woods, who surely had one of the best surgeons perform on his back, had a setback. The type of setback that you wouldn’t expect in a profession such as golf.

Sure there is twisting and jerking motion, but it pales in comparison to bone crushing hits a quarterback takes.

It’s shocking to me that no one in the sports media has paralleled Woods flare up to Tony Romo’s expected return.

For the type of offense the Cowboys run combined with Romo’s surgically repaired back, I’d put the Cowboys season on high red alert.

The signs have been there for the Cowboys and ownership. Changeover occurred when Wade Phillips was replaced with Jason Garrett. On the field though results looked eerily similar. Up top with Jerry Jones the organization has failed to create a foundation they once had in the 90’s.

Questionable play calling led to losses against the Packers, Chiefs, Broncos and Lions. Four games that could have propelled them to division champs and a possible playoff berth.

The reason for those horrendous miscues was by and large due to the offense’s continuous reliance on Tony Romo. To be the hero on each and every offensive play is just asking for your quarterback to land on injured reserve.

I’m afraid this season will be the dagger of a catalyst to finally trigger change for Dallas. Everyone with a football eye has seen it coming for the last five years. Vegas currently has the win total set at eight wins for the Cowboys. Count me in as one that will be taking the under.

I just don’t see the Cowboys playing solid football for a full sixteen game schedule. It hasn’t happened and won’t in 2014.

NATIONALS BEST BANG FOR DOLLAR

Monday, 4 August, 2014

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When testing any future market tracking division leaders is typically not the way to go. Separation is only a few games from the second or even third place team. But analyzing a division for weaknesses and strengths can catapult that theory out the window.

In the NL East several teams have taken a free fall over the past month to eight weeks. Philadelphia and the Mets were never in serious consideration to make a run. Though both had flirted with mini win streaks in the month of July.

Miami has been a hot and cold team all season. After closing the division gap to five games they had a tough home stand against the Reds. They dropped three of four and now find themselves seven games back of the Nationals.

That leaves the Braves who are falling apart in an extreme way. Their woes started with a horrific home stand against the Miami Marlins. In that series they lost three of four. Now they’re on a six game losing streak that could have ended yesterday. With the bases loaded and no-outs, Atlanta could not muster a run across the plate.

In the NL, the Central is in a serious log jam. Four teams in the Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds are separated by just five games. Series upon series versus each other could make this division get a bit topsy-turvy.

In the NL West, the Dodgers are already heavily favored to contend for a World Series while the Giants have wondering eyes upon them. I would not have my money on either of these teams.

Washington is sitting at 10-1 and 4.5-5-1 to win the NL. I’ll discount the Braves, Phillies, and Mets. The only team with a shot if they somehow can pull it together are the Marlins. But that’s a stretch in itself. They’re more in position to make a run for the Wild Card than the division.

Put your money on the Nationals while people continue to pile money on teams that just pulled off trades. The Cardinals, A’s, Tigers, and usual flood of money on the Dodgers and Giants.

Washington has had one of the best balanced lineups countered with pitching since June. They’re not typically flashy in terms of the way they score their runs, but they find out a way to plate them across. Pitching wise they’re already boasted as a top five pitching staff.

Lay the money down now, as they have clear sailing to a division title.

KEY NUCLEUS TO YOUR FANTASY FOOTBALL TEAMS

Monday, 4 August, 2014

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Fantasy football consists of many variables, but proper talent evaluation is one of the strongest keys. Some fantasy owners get overly consumed with the top portion of a fantasy football draft. They’re locked in on getting the hot names from a year ago in the first five rounds of their draft.

Similar to NFL Drafts teams hit or miss in the first three to four rounds. Due diligence though and often times they draft better personnel from the same position in later rounds. You have to be prepared to fill out your entire roster with quality depth.

What area is often overlooked by fantasy owners is drafting a veteran or two. So many fantasy owners get soaked into the fact of getting the big names, the preseason fads, and rookies. Drafting too many rookies and high upside players leaves you vulnerable. You’re more than likely keying in on the waiver wire or pulling a trade within the first month of the season.

There’s nothing wrong with drafting a player or two that is obviously regressing statistically. Though the upside isn’t strong you have a realistic idea of what that athlete will likely do. Having a strong RB3 or WR3/4 can come from this strategy. Think of players such as Terrell Owens, Curtis Martin, Hines Ward, and LT. They all provided solid value at declining ages and non-fantasy starting roles.

The same can be had nowadays. Take a strong look at veterans like MJD, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson.

They all likely have a negative perspective in the minds of your fantasy football cohorts. I’m not saying draft a team full of veterans. But plugging a couple of guys with experience is similar to what key organizations do in all sports. Bringing in veterans gives your team a bit of stability. Do that for yourself this year instead of attempting to rotate the never ending one week wonder off of waivers.

AFC EAST UNDERRATED EDGE IN THE NFL

Monday, 4 August, 2014

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The NFL has been the best of all major sports to have hope for a franchise as a fan. Over the last five to ten years we’ve seen division battles from every team. In the NFC North, the Vikings, Bears, Packers, and even Lions have had success. in the NFC South, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina all have rotated amongst division leaders.

Pick a division and it’s seen a merry go round of change. Still, certain divisions get wrote off and thought of as bottom tier. Take the NFC West a few years ago. It was not that long ago that the division was thought of as pathetic. Remember when the Seahawks won the division at 7-9 in 2010?

They pulled off an improbable home upset of the Saints. Since then the division has been one of the strongest from the Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers. That’s how quick things can change.

In the AFC East it’s been a rocky tenure for the fans of Miami, the Jets, and Buffalo. There’s no doubt that the Patriots have controlled the division for the better part of Brady’s career. Challenges to develop a non-veteran quarterback have plagued the division. New regimes finally changed that philosophy and all went out and drafted their potential future quarterback.

Miami has Ryan Tannehill, the Bills EJ Manuel, and the Jets Geno Smith. Young quarterbacks that still have a ways to go to bring their teams to playoff aspirations. One key area all teams have continued to get better in is defensively.

Buffalo overpaid for some free agents a few years ago but were fortunate to make some key draft picks that have paid off. Miami has built pieces here and there and has had a formidable defensive line for years. New York has had their ups and downs defensively but has never waned from being a defense that keeps the offense in games.

These are the signs that lead me to believe the AFC East is ready to arise amongst the rest of the NFL. This plays a large key for season totals and handicapping games on a week to week basis.

Compare that 2010 season of the NFC West to last years standings in the AFC East. Miami and the Jets both finished 8-8 and were still largely considered failures by fans and the media. Buffalo endured an injury prone season at quarterback under a first year head coach and finished 6-10.

Don’t be surprised to see this division sneak up on the rest of the NFL and surprise NFL fans and sports bettors this season.