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Listening to and viewing picks on tonight’s preseason games, I’ve seen a lot of support on the Buffalo Bills. When same views are in play it can be a vast detraction to true point spread value. Sure the line on this is just -1, but if you’re handicapping this game be leery.

The whole notion that the Bills should come out better is an aberration. Just because they have one preseason game under their belts means nothing. That’s like saying in the regular season a team off consecutive losses should be better prepared for a win. We all know that a poor team will continue to lose.

Watching Buffalo in game one I witnessed a lot of poor technique defensively and a slow moving offense.

Look for that to continue in preseason game two tonight in Carolina. The lean on Buffalo has drawn a tad bit more as well with the news that Cam Newton likely will miss tonight’s game. I wouldn’t draw much into that either as a few series of a four quarter game does not effect the overall result.

Carolina has a range of backups that have played big roles before in the NFL. Former Pro Bowl quarterback, Derek Anderson and ex-Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joe Webb.

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Out in Atlanta a crucial series ensues between the Nationals and Braves. Atlanta will try to regain footing in the divisional race. Washington has been out in front towards the latter part of July and first week of August. This series is the calling card to if the Braves want to be in contention to win the NL East. A split or lone victory puts them too far back against a Nationals team that likely won’t lose to many remaining series this year.

With this much focus on a series, this should propel the bats to do well. Both lineups possess capable hitters. This total is far too low as far as I’m concerned. Yes, both have been strong aces this season but I do expect both to have a rough half inning tonight.

The juice is right in this one. Take the over

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Just like ESPN’s show Numbers Never Lie, sometimes you have to ignore opinion and focus on the numbers. Andrew Luck has led some great comebacks and has had some dazzling throws in his young career. But he has also had some disastrous games that seem to be forgotten when the media hypes him up.

Luck seems poised all the time even if he makes a mistake. The problem is when he makes a mistake it usually tailspins into a horrific multi-interception game. Obviously he either can’t block out his mistakes or just lets his turnovers get to him too much.

It’s not like Luck is out there throwing a high amount of touchdown passes to offset this trend either. Luck ranked just 15th in touchdown passes a year ago with 23. Quarterbacks such as Ryan Tannehill, Russ Wilson, and Carson Palmer threw more touchdowns than Luck.

The way the media hypes Luck you’d think he had been to the Super Bowl already. The talent is there but fantasy football draftees need to hold the projections of the media back when drafting.

There are a few variables to consider that may even hurt Luck in 2014. One the Colts all but abandoned their running game last season. With the woes of Trent Richardson and not a suitable backup, the Colts lacked the fire power to help Luck. That may change this season if Richardson recommits himself but that could also hurt Luck’s overall yardage numbers and touchdown results.

The Colts do not run a fast tempo offense that the Broncos, Saints, Cowboys, and other teams with fantasy friendly stats do.

I do not think Luck warrants a top five to eight fantasy consideration at quarterback just yet. He is likely going to remain in the ten to thirteen range until the stalwarts in the top five retire.

If you’re one that waits to draft a quarterback like an old school draftee, do it with caution. Luck’s stats aren’t likely to fluctuate to a higher draw from what we saw in 2013.

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Arian Foster’s decline a year ago has been seen time and time again from the position of running back. Outstanding seasons suddenly get abruptly halted from injuries. Foster had shaken off a few injury bugs in prior seasons to still perform. In 2013 though they piled up to the brink that he told Hannah Storm in a recent interview he pondered retirement.

The tread on Foster’s legs and body is definitely not the same from most 27 year old backs. In college Foster was a four-year guy and carried the ball enough to break all-time records at Tennessee. Though undrafted, Foster ended up in a prime position in Houston with the likes of Steve Slaton.

Not too often will you find a second year back not drafted as the feature back. He relished the role and received a mega contract most backs don’t get until his current age now.

Foster’s track record sort of gives the vibe that he is a 30 year old back. Fantasy owners are likely leery of the Texan back, but I’d give him strong upside as a top tier fantasy back. Even though the Texans do not have a stud quarterback, the offense will still move fluid enough to garner Foster a higher ranking than he currently is averaging (10th).

For those not registering the possibility of Foster being a top five back again, consider this. Jamaal Charles fell back pretty hard in rankings when he suffered a serious knee injury and missed an entire season. He came back at full strength and now is considered the top fantasy back with his duel abilities.

His climb back to the top has left an absent minded void to perennial fantasy football owners. The age of Charles and Foster are the same, 27.

If Charles can return from a far and away more serious of an injury, than why is Foster receiving such a steep downgrade? Sure he doesn’t offer the same bang for the dollar that he once did out of the backfield, but he is still a great rusher and double digit type of touchdown producer.

Houston felt comfortable enough to part ways with Ben Tate and allot room for a downgrade in the second running back position in Andre Brown. I look for Foster to quiet his skeptics and work his way back into solidifying himself as a top five fantasy running back. Consider him a steal if you get him in the early to mid second round.

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The NBA has been known for teams tanking to have a better shot at the number one pick. It has worked in some cases and others it hasn’t. In the NFL, it doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal for the teams at the bottom of the league. Some of those teams end up finishing the season better than we thought and toppling their low over/under win total set by Vegas.

From the average handicapper to the esteemed, many are set to turn in their official regular season win total bets. In all likelihood if you’re putting in a serious strong wager you’re going to wait until the day before the regular season. This gives you the time to rethink a total if a serious injury occurs in the preseason.

Surely people are tracking the schedules of teams they plan to wager a win total on. But are you looking at the possibility of a team resting their starters week 17? It happens all the time and it’s no longer just teams that have secured a bye week.

Years ago bye week teams were stronger than they are now, in terms of record. Therefore records of 14-2 and even 13-3 are fewer and fewer. That means stronger wild card teams who sometimes are in position to rest week 17 to make way for a strong playoff run.

If you’re planning on taking the under on teams, you better put together some hypothetical scenarios in week 17. Just like in a straight wager, you’ll be surprised how dead on totals can be.

In Vegas right now teams that are projected to win double digit games are the Denver Broncos (11), Seattle Seahawks (11), Green Bay Packers (10), San Francisco (10.5), and New England (10.5).

Lets play hypothetical for all these teams and assume that they get in position to rest their starters week 17.

Denver would face Oakland at home
Oakland’s season win total is five games. Juice is -150 on the under and +150 on the over. Playing in a division with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos makes the Raiders one of the toughest teams to bet a season total on the over. They also have the NFC West as their non-conference opponents. Unless the Chargers and Chiefs take a huge step back, getting to four or five wins by week 17 is going to be tough.

Seattle would face St. Louis at home
This is a bit more interesting. Seattle may still be in position for a bye week but might be in a neck and neck race with the 49ers for the division. We’re assuming they have the division clinched and rest against the Rams. St. Louis was one of the better young teams with promise last season. Their butt whippings of the Bears and Colts showcased that. Their total is set at 7.5. Vegas is making it awfully tough to bet on any totals in the NFC West. This Rams team should definitely see a bit of a rise but going .500 is the only way you cash.

San Francisco would face Arizona at home
This was the matchup last season to end 2013. If Arizona would have pulled out the win they would have finished with the same record as the 49ers at 11-5. Not many people are discussing that this Cardinals team went 10-6 and still missed out on the playoffs last year. But they’ve also taking some hits on the defensive side of the football which was their strength. Arizona’s win total is also 7.5 and may be too high considering Carson Palmer’s prior injury history. He went last year unscathed but can he duplicate that against the ferocious defense’s of the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams?

Green Bay would face Detroit at home
Out of all the teams projected for double digit win totals the Packers may be in the best position. They’re a veteran team that should finally be healthy. They’re also in a division that heralds the Vikings, Lions, and Bears. The Bears and Lions have the talent but year in and year out fall into the category of teams that are inconsistent. Green Bay also gets the AFC East for their non conference division. Buffalo, New York, Miami, and the Patriots at home. Detroit’s win total is set at 8. I could see the Lions being one of those 8-7 week 17 teams but eliminated from playoff contention. Either way I think the Packers are resting week 17, which makes the play on the over for Detroit more appealing.

New England would face Buffalo at home
Buffalo’s season win total is 6.5. We’ve seen rookies before have success such as EJ Manuel and then have a disastrous second year. I’m not sold on Manuel yet, and I think his injuries in and out of the lineup actually helped the Bills. Teams were not able to get a consistent feel for Manuel’s abilities and Manuel didn’t have the built up pressure mentally on a weekly basis. Doug Marrone’s coaching abilities remain up in the air as well on the NFL level. Their schedule is favorable though, with winnable games against the Raiders, Browns, Vikings, and Houston scheduled. Assuming they can go 3-1 in those games they may be in position week 17 to pad their season total against a resting Patriots.

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I’m still going to stay with my advice on week one and even week two of preseason football. Stay away. There is no reason to lay solid money on a side this early in the preseason. If you want a solid play keep dialed in to baseball.

That doesn’t mean there is not solid value in the first few weeks of preseason. There will be opportunities for fantasy football owners to seek out hidden gems. From a handicapping standpoint you need to know the depth on the field. Starters still will only play a half or an extended series or two into the third quarter.

Covering the spread will still depend on the reserves on the field.

One theme to pick up from the Giants versus the Bills is young talent with a chip on their shoulder. As I mentioned in my write up of that game, Ryan Nassib, was facing his old college coach in Doug Marrone. There was speculation that Nassib would be the Bills pick in the first round. The Bills passed and Nassib slipped all the way to the fourth round.

His preseason play was not stellar last year and the Giants need to see what he is capable of. Nassib’s bomb in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference.

Seek out young talent on rosters that need to step up. Quarterbacks should rank the highest in your research, but don’t be afraid to seek defensive specialists, wide receivers, and running backs. Who can forget New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz a few preseasons ago?

In 2010 he scored four touchdowns in the preseason. Though he didn’t do much in the regular season, the Giants downgraded their former starters and went with the likes of Cruz in 2011. There are all types of candidates that are ready to shine over these weeks of August.

During the regular season the NFL game is a complete reversal of what you’ll see now. Now, a player or two can dominate. You have basic schemes being run defensively and a scaled down talent level.

Monitor this first week and pounce on value as it develops over the course of the preseason.