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After last years fantastic all-purpose season by Jamaal Charles he has become the unanimous top back to get. Andy Reid has always ran a high velocity offense centered around the tailback. Success has been had in prior Eagles systems and running backs such as Duce Staley, Correll Buckhalter, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy.

A familiar link with all of those running backs is that there success was stymied eventually because of the heavy dosage they get. Duce Staley’s success started in 1998 and 1999 before injuries derailed him. He had a resurrection of sorts and become a capable fantasy backup with success out of the backfield in 2002 and 2003.

A similar pattern can be found in former star, Brian Westbrook. From quick memory you would of thought he had a great five year run as an Eagle. On the contrary he had two outstanding seasons followed up by a quick career burnout. In 2007 and 2008 he tallied career years with rushing yards of over 2500 combined and receiving yards of near 1200. Injuries quickly took their toll on Westbrook and he fell off quickly in a short stint with the 49ers.

LeSean McCoy was on his way to the same pattern in Philadelphia. His breakout seasons were in 2010 and 2011 before injuries took away a full season from him in 2012—-Andy Reid’s last year. Chip Kelly runs a high amount of plays but keeps has his players prepared for the volume and rotates them properly.

Now we turn to Jamaal Charles. In Charles first year under Andy Reid he saw a dramatic rise in his role as a Chief. His rushing numbers did come down a bit from the prior year but he caught 70 passes totaling nearly 700 yards.

This is looked on by fantasy football participants as gold. The old school workload that produces a gluttony amount of points in PPR leagues. Charles already had a serious injury that caused him to miss the 2011 season. A freak dorm exit injury has Charles currently with a bum foot.

That’s not alarming enough but I would have strong caution with everyone’s unanimous top fantasy pick. His utilization is bound to cause another Andy Reid overused running back to suffer during the season.

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Each day this week I’ll give a breakdown of win totals and where I believe the right side is on the number. Numbers are moving continually and will grow even more before the season begins. This is the fun part of getting into the futures market. Lets just hope no serious injuries occur for those tickets on the over.

Vegas Has it Right On
New England- 10.5
I’ve already written a piece on the AFC East trending upward for 2014. That typically means a downfall for the team that runs the division yearly. With New England their consistency marks an unfathomable reason to suddenly write them off. They’ve improved defensively and have the same nucleus offensively. If it’s not broke don’t fix it. This was one of the easiest totals set by Vegas and it’s spot on.

Beats the Number
New York Jets 7
Initially when looking at the number of seven wins, you’d automatically have a thought of under. On second thought though this team was somewhat impressive last year with a scaled back offense and defense back on the rise. They had some strong wins against the Saints and a few other teams. Normally I’d downgrade a team with a quarterback controversy set to embroil the season. In this case I consider it an upgrade. Geno Smith can’t possibly play worse and Mike Vick is a quarterback you don’t want playing a full 16 games. At some point he’ll probably see the field and a shortened season could be to the Jets benefit. He has been in this role before and understands his situation in New York.

Miami Dolphins 8
Can Ryan Tannehill show true year three quarterback progression? I believe so. He was the main culprit to the demise of many winnable games for the Dolphins a year ago. His confidence began to wane after the Dolphins week four loss on Monday Night football to the Saints. They were ran out of the building with Tannehill having blunder after blunder. After that game the Dolphins play calling was never the same. It was scaled back and hindered the team. This year the play calling will bode to Tannehill’s strengths and we should see a turn around. Don’t be surprised if they get close to a playoff berth or end up with one.

Falls Short
Buffalo 6.5
Being a Syracuse fan I had my questions with the selection of Doug Marrone as head coach. Usually a college coach making the transition to the NFL had a serious strong campaign in college. Marrone did not. Syracuse did develop into a bowl eligible team but getting to a bowl game is not a great achievement anymore. Buffalo seems to have the pieces to string together wins but this does not seem to be the year to do so. The reach in drafting EJ Manuel that stirred controversy will start to rear its head this season.

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In fantasy football planning is everything. Being a manager consists of proper preparation. You can draft the best team on paper and be left with all types of issues. Poor play, injuries, team inconsistencies that reduces team talent, and the crucial all important bye weeks.

Bye weeks can be your best friend in leagues that managers give up in. It happens all the time. The classic manager that digs her or himself a hole and flat out stops managing the team. You can catch a break with pure luck as the owner hasn’t set his lineup and has two to three players sitting out on a bye week.

That’s a process of pure laziness on those owners behalves. Here are a few simple strategies to pre-plan not having a major hole on those ever-crucial bye weeks.

Know your team
It’s a simple thought but knowing your team shouldn’t catch you by surprise. You don’t want to be coming off a fantasy football win and then figure out on Tuesday that you have two potential starting receivers on bye weeks. You should know this way ahead and bolster your bench positions before hand. If the bye week is week six that gives you a month and a half leeway to figure things out. You can either do that via a trade or managing the waiver wire. Risking a loss in a likely 13-14 game regular fantasy football season can’t be tolerated, especially in a money league.

Quarterbacks and Tight Ends Deserve the Highest Attention
I see this mistake far too often as well. An owner will invest heavily through auction or standard drafts at getting an elite tight end or quarterback. Their plan is a no-brainer and to start that tight end or quarterback all year. This strategy seems acceptable but it’s not. That’s two combined weeks having to use a lower tier non-starter. To make up this ground you need to offset this with favorable matchups. Your current backup quarterback or tight end does not have to be your starter that week. Look at a backup quarterback that’s starting because of an injury. Last year Josh McCown paid huge dividends for fantasy owners and there are countless other examples of this.

Upgrade, upgrade, and upgrade
Do not be a lazy fantasy owner. Take it seriously and find the resources to make your team better. All information is out there to make an improvement for any bye week scenario. Analyze and make the proper moves for those two to three tough bye week decisions a year.

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Today’s free total comes in the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals matchup. Arizona has actually had a successful road trip in Cleveland and Miami pitching wise. Which is a surprise considering the struggles the staff had for the month of July and early August.

Don’t let their recent success fool you. They faced two teams in the Indians and Marlins that had been struggling mightily at the plate, especially the Indians. That series also featured a double header due to a rain out. Miami finally got going against Josh Collmenter yesterday and carried that over into pummeling the Diamondbacks bullpen.

The juice of -233 doesn’t please me enough to take the Nationals but I do like the over in the first five innings of this matchup. It’s just 3.5 because of Nuno’s latest strong performance and Zimmerman’s command all year.

Arizona has been getting on base plenty of times but failing to score runs. Against the Marlins they did score three first inning runs against Brad Hand and had several base runners on against Alvarez, and bases loaded against Tommy Koehlher yesterday.

They’re bound to get some runs plated across. Take the first five over.

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Thursday and Friday of the NFL preseason week two are in the books. Lets take a look at some risers in terms of fantasy football for this season.

Risers

Blake Bortles
Bortles shined last year at Central Florida and saw his stock rise to unparalleled heights. Being taken by Jacksonville the time table for him entering the field seems immediate. The team though has plans on bringing Bortles on slowly. We will have to see if that upholds based on Bortles strong preseason game against the Bears. It was on national television and he shined as a worthy controversial starter over Chad Henne. For now though look for Jacksonville to stick to the plan. Bortles is definitely a keeper league pick but nothing else of consideration.

Jordan Matthews
Chip Kelly’s plan to use Matthews all over the place showed promise Friday. Matthews had nine catches for over one hundred yards. Matthews rating amongst receivers still remains challenged, and should not be drafted higher than the top 30 range. We will need to see more from him before he becomes a true riser. All the Eagles quarterbacks threw a seemingly flawless game from completions versus attempts. Your not going to run and pickup Sanchez or Barkley so don’t do so with Matthews. Upside is there though.

Others: Brandon LaFell, Bishop Sankey, Justin Hunter, and Percy Harvin

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The total on the Phillies vs Giants is 7.5. Rather than rely on the bullpen we are going to take a look at the first five innings in this one. This outing is a bit of a redemption marker for Tim Hudson.

In a day game on July 24th, Hudson lost on 2 unearned runs that proved to be the difference. Tim pitched well in his last start before giving up a solo shot in the fifth followed by a couple more runs in the 7th.

This Giants team is just not hitting the ball well. There is no getting around that. Similar to the other bay team, Oakland, they are just not producing runs for their pitchers. Kyle Kendrick should have the type of stuff to get around the Giants lineup twice without allowing more than a couple of runs.

Last night bettors that had the under lost on an unfortunate couple of sequences. Two on and a three run shot from the Giants in the 3rd inning, and a two run shot from the Phillies in the eighth. That won’t be the result today. Take the under on 3.5 runs today.