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One of the biggest mistakes people make in handicapping a number in the NFL is believing they have a stronger opinion than oddsmakers. Some people write their own lines and if they see a three to four point spread differential from their line to the oddsmakers they believe they’re line is stronger. On the contrary, when this happens you should think again and likely X the game out or play the other side.

One of the worst mistakes you can make is believing you can outsmart oddsmakers. Las Vegas sportsbooks monitor each other and even view offshore lines to gauge the pricing market. The number is put out there to get value on both sides, not to land one-sided money.

The only sport I’ve seen lines be completely off on a regular basis is in college basketball. It’s a tough sport to predict even for oddsmakers early on in a season with transfers, travel, and incoming recruits.

This week there are a lot of high point spreads out there in the NFL. Don’t get caught in the hoopla of underdogs covering at a strong rate last week. That was last week, and the market was tighter from a point spread stand point as well. Pick your spots and find proper value according to what the oddsmakers have set.

Tier Two: Week Two Fantasy Football Best Matchups

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It’d be great if you could count on your top three to four picks every week to hand you a win. It doesn’t work that way on the field in the NFL and certainly doesn’t in fantasy football. You need strong efforts from your tier two and sometimes even tier three athletes. Zack Cimini takes a look at tier two players this week that should pay dividends for your team.

Quarterbacks

RG3
I was glad to see that the media did not blame the Redskins week one loss solely on RG3. In the past that may have been warranted. But for the most part the Redskins loss the game against the Texans with team mistakes. Special teams allowed a blocked punt for a touchdown before half, and the team had two costly red zone turnovers. Houston’s defense is much improved and got after RG3 all day. This week should be a much better match up for the Redskins against the Jaguars. I’d expect the Redskins to score three to four touchdowns and for RG3 to have a nice day through the air.

Carson Palmer
Boy oh boy it looks like that magic wand to snap the Giants back to a playoff contender has officially snapped. New York use to be one of those teams people could just wait for that win streak to appear with. Times have changed for the Giants and the Cardinals will look to go 2-0. Arizona might have better offensive balance especially at the receiver position than Detroit. Besides MegaTron the Lions are still working in the rest of their talent. Meanwhile Arizona is stacked with Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd. Expect Carson to be able to gun the ball all over the field with little pressure in his face.

Other Quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

Shonn Greene
This is a great week for fantasy owners to insert Greene as their flex running back. The Titans offense clicked in week one against an undermanned Chiefs defense. It’ll be interesting to see if week one was a true progression for this team or just one week. Greene knows his job is soon to be Bishop Sankey’s, but Sankey has done nothing to position himself as the top back in this dual backfield. We all saw how Carlos Hyde and Frank Gore paired to trample the Cowboys defense. Look for the Titans to mimic that recipe with Greene.

Carlos Hyde
It looks like the 49ers have once again discovered a gem by accident. Two years ago they caught a break when Kaepernick started because Alex Smith was injured. The team did not look back. This time they drafted Hyde to eventually replace Gore, who is in the final year of his contract. Dallas’s defense is always shaky but another team that has had a hard time stopping the run are the Chicago Bears. Look for Hyde to keep rewarding fantasy owners that drafted him late in rounds.

Others: Toby Gerhart, and Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

Eric Decker
You could tell the Jets offense had a bit more synergy than any game witnessed a year ago. Eric Decker was one of the key names brought in to bring life to an ailing team at receiver. Decker’s not going to have an all world season like he did with Peyton Manning but he should shine as an underrated fantasy guy all year. Insert him in week two.

Torrey Smith
When inserting three starting wide receivers sometimes you just have to look for yardage value over touchdown possibilities. Smith is one of those guys this week that falls into the yardage category. He has always been a solid performer against the Steelers and I don’t see that changing this week. The Steelers showed last week that they still have huge holes in the secondary against a depleted receiving group of the Browns.

Others: DeAndre Hopkins and Marques Colston

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My background in fantasy sports trumps my sports handicapping experience by a handful of years. I’m from the old school of fantasy fanatics that use to crunch their own league numbers and standings. No online software, it was all done with the sports page and a TI-84 calculator to punch in box score stats.

There is an obvious correlation in fantasy sports and sports handicapping. I’m not a trends guy when it comes to all the crazy different scenarios some handicappers can come up with. The type of trends I use for sports handicapping come from individual performances over the years. That’s where the world of fantasy football brings a charm to point spreads and teams.

This week I have the Carolina Panthers as my correlated team for a sports handicapping and fantasy football metrics breakdown.

See The Latest College Football Odds at AllPro

Here are three reasons why I believe there is more value on Detroit’s side this week than Carolina’s.

Rookie Wide Receivers tend to struggle with consistency
The Carolina Panthers surely have found a great rookie in Kelvin Benjamin. But one thing that never fails with rookie wideouts is struggling with consistency. After a very impressive week one you’d have to expect a decline from Benjamin. You’d have to go back to 2012 to find a receiver that has made an impact each and every week, and that is Alshon Jeffrey of the Bears. It took Jeffrey until his second season to achieve such status. Even AJ Green in 2011 struggled with consistency on his way to a 1000 yard season. Benjamin likely won’t be a bust or a downgrade position starter like Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, Titus Young(out of the league), AJ Jenkins(On his way out of the league), Stephen Hill(Unsigned), Justin Blackmon, etc, but he is going to struggle just like everyone else.

Cam Newton’s return from injury
For a quarterback to be held out of week one and then be declared a go on Tuesday just doesn’t add up. If a team feels confident to name Newton a starter 48 hours later something tells you they may be rushing him back. Most teams would have left speculation in the air until Friday or Saturday. It’s the rust of Newton that worries me even more this week for his return. Can he deliver crisp throws to all new wide receivers in Jerricho Cotchery, Benjamin, and Jason Avant? Limited practice reps and on field play leave tremendous doubt this week facing a confident Lions team. That and Newton’s bonus dimension is his scrambling ability. Can he absorb crushing hits to his big frame without grimacing, or will the Panthers scale his carries back completely?

DeAngelo Williams Track Record
I’ve hammered the wide receiver and quarterback position for the Panthers and last but not least is the running back position. DeAngelo Williams. Carolina has had the same dual back system for years with Williams/Stewart and bowling ball Mike Tolbert. All of these guys may not even be true backup running backs around the league. But Carolina keeps their system intact because of Newton’s all around athletic abilities. Williams 72 yards on five yards a carry last week against the Bucs look fantastic on paper. But it’s just the 11th time since 2011 (49 Games) that Williams has cracked over 70 yards rushing.

This game is setting up to put too much pressure on the Carolina Panthers defense. Last year the Panthers lost three of their first four games because the defense couldn’t hold up with their struggling offense. Last week the defense almost collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers. They gave up two touchdowns when the Bucs decided to run a hurry up offense with McCown under center. That’s Stafford’s bread and butter. I find it hard to believe Carolina will be able to stifle a Detroit Lions team that has weapons all over the place. The value here is on the Detroit Lions.

Fantasy Football: Five Players to Upgrade and Downgrade

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Upgrades

Russ Wilson
Wilson was impressive in orchestrating a rout against the Green Bay Packers Thursday. He seems to be ready to elevate his game to another level that should be fantasy friendly. He has always talked the talk with proper interviews and now it’s translating onto the field.

Andy Dalton
The Bengals could have folded as a team offensively with the way the game tracked. In fact most of the time when you see teams give away a lead they fold with under six minutes to go. After five first half field goals and a missed sixth attempt, the Bengals found themselves down 16-15 with under six minutes. Dalton stayed poised and delivered a game winning touchdown bomb to AJ Green. He may not be a post season quarterback just yet, but he has shown through the years to be a steady fantasy quarterback in the regular season.

Codarrelle Patterson
Maybe the Vikings have something going that the rest of the league will follow suit with. They originally drafted Percy Harvin for his speed and shiftiness in the open field. It worked for a few seasons out of the backfield and at wide receiver before he ended up in Seattle. It looks like the Vikings had another route in mind when they landed Patterson. His speed and open field ability is on another level. Fantasy owners that got him as a relative mid round pick are grinning from ear to ear.

Markus Wheaton
It wasn’t the offense of the Steelers that impressed me, it was the defense. From a fantasy football players perspective you have to love the fact that the Steelers defense is still in shambles. They nearly allowed the Browns to come all the way back and win the game. But knowing that the defense is still a work in progress means that the Steelers will continue to throw a lot offensively. That boosts Wheaton who had nearly 100 yards receiving on six catches Sunday.

Pierre Thomas
Most draftees of Thomas were able to land him as their fourth running back and best flex option. The Saints have shown that they don’t mind feeding the ball to Thomas out of the backfield, as he was great in this area last season. When they decided to bring him back many people were not sure if it would be in the same capacity. After seven carries for 30 yards and seven catches for nearly 60 yards, those questions have been answered.

Downgrades

Ben Tate
Tate owners are extremely displeased with his early season injury against the Steelers. Though he will likely return soon he already has the injury bug tabbed on him from his Houston days. Owners better find a way to trade for Terrance West if you do not have him already. West came in and showcased that he can handle the load with sixteen carries for 100 yards against the Steelers.

Vincent Jackson
The problems with Tampa Bay’s week one performance are not going to resolve themselves in one or two games. Josh McCown had a couple of awful interceptions and really never got back into gear after the first turnover. Obviously if McCown continues to struggle it’s going to have a downgraded effect to Jackson. You have to move him down until the team shows better promise. Right now the offense would rank dead last from what I saw this week.

Doug Martin
Doug Martin seems to be heading down Steve Slaton territory. He came out of nowhere to have one stellar season. Owners drafted him high last year with injuries ending that season. Promise for a comeback based on his season two years ago looks far fetched after week one. He ran the ball nine times for just nine yards. A bad game against the Panthers isn’t something to overreact about, but Martin has a steep hill to climb to get anywhere near the value he was drafted for.

Trent Richardson
Richardson seems to be attacking aggressively but just doesn’t have the gear to get out of the hole. It’s hard to tell if Richardson can get in gear if Indianapolis always digs themselves a hole. But his downward progression has been going on for over a year now. Sooner or later the Colts are going to run out of patience as fantasy owners are.

Jamaal Charles
Last month I profiled how backs falter under Andy Reid. It’s been a problem for over ten years. Kansas City’s offense was the second worst in week one behind the Buccaneers. Charles is the type of back though that can have five or six great games to offset this type of performance. His low carries though from week one have to be alarming.

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**Any players from MNF that are waiver wire worthy will be added to this article

When it come to the waiver wire the coverage amongst fantasy football websites has been outstanding. You’re not going to miss a name nowadays with the instant access out there. What is missing is detailing over reaction. After just one week do not overreact and go after multiple players. It’s like trading stocks. You can’t sell every week and expect to make gains. When you sell is when that stock reverts upward and helps your portfolio. Treat your team the same way. Go after value if it’s there but do not overreact off of one week’s results. With that being said, lets take a look at some players to pick up this week.

Quarterbacks

Jake Locker
It looked like Tennessee was going to win in ugly fashion as they typically have done under Jake Locker. It was a close game at halftime and 10-3 in the third quarter. Then Locker took control and beat a team on the road soundly in Kansas City. A team that has had strong success as a home team. This is a key year for Locker and will need to show consistency to become a viable regular starter. For now with what he can do with his legs and his maturation as a passer he is worth a stash if you’re in need of an upgrade at backup.

Joe Flacco
For all the negative attention Flacco draws, it’s remarkable how Baltimore stays in a majority of their games. One of the main reasons is that Flacco doesn’t allow his team to give up. With an inability to run the football for an entire half, Baltimore axed the game plan and went Flacco’s way. He had a complete reversal in accuracy and was throwing crisp balls. It was too late to attempt to get a win but if Flacco can avoid interceptions he is a top tier fantasy backup quarterback.

Running Backs

Carlos Hyde
Sometimes it’s not just all about jump out stats for a waiver wire addition. Hyde only had seven carries but made each one count Sunday. He ran for 50 yards and a touchdown. What’s impressive with Hyde is he showed the power the 49ers want in the second half with a back. Frank Gore was able to do it for years by himself but at his age the team needs a complimentary back. Hyde and Gore wore down the 49ers with Hyde showing he is well worth a second round pick.

DeAngelo Williams
The knock on Carolina backs is their goal line use. A lot of valuable touchdowns go to Cam Newton on dives and to big bruiser Mike Tolbert. With Newton’s rib injury being as serious as it is, we all have no clue how that changes the way Carolina runs Newton. Maybe they’ll tone it back in goal line situations to avoid Newton taking unnecessary hits. Williams can get the yardage but will need to see more attention in the red zone.

Chris Ivory
Ivory’s been on this waiver wire list for the past three seasons. The problem is once he gets added he gets re-dropped. New York won against Oakland Sunday but got a way with miscues from second year starter Geno Smith. Against a seasoned quarterback as opposed to a rookie in Derek Carr, things may have got interesting. Look for the Jets to make a commitment to running the ball with the likes of Ivory to keep Smith’s errors at a minimum. Smith had a couple of costly turnovers and an ill-advised sack in field goal range.

Mark Ingram
The game against the Falcons was as chaotic as it gets. Amongst the chaos was an all around great fantasy producing Saints team. Everyone seemed to be involved as Brees and the ground attack worked well. The Saints have been so heavy of an offensive passing touchdown team that their running backs get devalued. Sunday, the Saints rushed for three touchdowns with two coming by Ingram. It likely won’t be the norm, but it’s good to know a team that can score has an asset in Ingram who is available in nearly 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Wide Receivers

Ricardo Lockette
His stats did not jump out but he did find the end zone on Thursday night. Seattle is one of those teams that has had sneaky value from their wide receivers over the last couple of seasons. Russ Wilson hasn’t been a top tier yardage quarterback but you can see the transformation beginning. Seattle is entrusting him more with throws as they seem to be balancing the pass with the run. Before it was a run heavy offense and game managing Wilson because of their strong defense.

Kelvin Benjamin
Derek Anderson was the unheralded performer of the day Sunday. Carolina did not panic without Newton starting and likely made the announcement days earlier to the team. I firmly believe the Panthers made the right call in letting veterans Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell walk. They needed to add fresh talent and did so with Benjamin. But with any Carolina Panther offensive weapon you need to be patient with his results. Benjamin should be a quality fourth or fifth wide receiver for you in deeper leagues.

DeAndre Hopkins
Ryan Fitzpatrick has not been a top tier worthy fantasy starting quarterback, but on teams he has been on he has added value to the wide receivers. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins both had solid games in their debut with Fitzpatrick. Hopkins got the majority of his big day on one catch, but that’s all you need in the fantasy football world. The Texans held things back offensively as their defense played well enough to protect a lead. That won’t always be the case and Fitzpatrick will need to throw the football more.

Steve Smith Sr.
Smith is only owned in under 40% of Yahoo leagues. Look for that number to climb into the 70th percentile after his week one performance. Everything was stalled for the Ravens offensively until they handed the ball to Joe Flacco to air it out. Smith surprised and made a key big play down the sideline that pulled the game within a few points. Smith has had big week one’s before. Obviously at his age his upside is limited. But if the Ravens can’t figure out the ground game and trail, it gives higher value to Smith. This is a completely different style of offense in Baltimore than the slow pace of the Panthers.

Allen Hurns
I’m putting Hurns name on here even though he’ll likely be a one week wonder. After one half Hurns name was buzzing on twitter on where did this guy come from. A good story sometimes is brief. Hurns didn’t make another catch in the game and finished with over 110 yards and two touchdowns. Jacksonville’s offense hit a major wall against a recharged Eagles defense that lacked focus out the gate. Maybe they thought it was going to be easier than anticipated in facing Jacksonville. At any rate be careful on rushing to the wire to pickup Allen Hurns.

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Week one of NFL Sunday is finally here. I currently have a free play video between the Raiders and Jets under the today’s picks section. View it there and also take a glance at my premium plays package. Three NFL Sunday plays for just $50.

To view live lines be sure to check donbest.com. Here are the sides and totals of Sunday and Monday’s action in the NFL as of 430PM PST.

Saints -3 vs Atlanta, Total-52
Minnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams -3.5, Total 43.5
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5, Total 41.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles -10.5, Total 52.5
Oakland Raiders vs New York Jets -5.5, Total 40.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens, Total 43
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears -6.5, Total 47.5
Washington Redskins vs Houston Texans -3, Total 45
Tennessee vs Kansas City -3, Total 43.5
New England Patriots -4 vs Miami Dolphins, Total 47
Carolina vs Tampa Bay -2.5, Total 38.5
San Francisco -4 vs Dallas, Total 51.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Denver -7.5, Total 55.5

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions -6, Total 47
San Diego Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals -3, Total 45