Posts tagged with “notjustagame.com”

POST WEEK SEVEN WAIVER WIRE PICKUPS

Wednesday, 22 October, 2014

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Carson Palmer

Carson’s played in two games now and appears to be healthy. I had big concerns over his lingering shoulder issue that caused him to miss a length of time. But treatments seem to have hi in order. The offense has not been as explosive as people would think. Yet, Palmer is putting up solid numbers without his costly interceptions. This offense should spike up as more momentum builds with Carson on the field

Tre Mason

Those that didn’t take the advice on scooping Mason up last week have found themselves in the mix of every other owner in league. Depending on your bid system you’ll certainly have to risk a heavy amount on Mason. St. Louis has done a fine job over the years on plugging in backs and Mason looks like the next in line.

Bryce Brown

I’m not a big fan of Brown’s but he does have a prime opportunity with CJ Spiller out for eight weeks and Fred Jackson out for at least a month with a groin injury. The Bills offense is not a wide open attack like the Eagles had for him last year. I believe he’ll struggle a bit and don’t be surprised if Anthony Dixon steals some of his thunder.

Bishop Sankey

There are some fantasy owners that drew impatient with Sankey’s lack of carries early on in the season. But at the midway point of the season now the Titans need to see what type of back they drafted in Sankey. His sixteen carries last week didn’t spark a fantasy outbreak but the high load should warrant solid attention.

DeNard Robinson
Robinson will be a classic one week wonder but I’ll profile him anyways for deeper leagues. Robinson ran up against a Cleveland Browns defense that had key injuries along it’s defensive line. Robinson took advantage of that but only carries the football in one primary way. Just like in college he can hit the hole in between the tackles. Defenses will catch up to this and see if he can run to the edge and show he is more than a north and south runner.

Doug Baldwin

It’s no shock that Baldwin is flourishing with Percy Harvin traded. Golden Tate was Russ Wilson’s other big target but he signed with Detroit. That left Baldwin to fill the primary role for Seattle and he should perform like he has in the past. The problem for owners that pick him up now is waiting for his next big game. They usually come one every three to four games.

EPIC ATS STREAK CONTINUES–11 STRAIGHT WINS IN THE NFL (81% YTD)

Tuesday, 21 October, 2014

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Over the course of my sports handicapping career I’ve had one NFL streak similar to the one I’m currently on. That was in 2012 when I had a 25-2 month altogether. But typically my double digit streaks come in one sport and that is college basketball.

To be at 81% ATS through seven weeks of the NFL season is a humbling position. I’ll continue to give out plays that I see the beneficial line of.

I don’t have a record-keeping database here personally. But as a handicapper on jimfeist.com and kellyinvegas.com I have the archives through their sites to showcase this. Head to kellyinvegas.com to see for yourself my exact wins and percentages by each sport.

Interested in weekly, monthly, or season packages send me an email at notjustagame23@gmail.com or go to today’s picks to see the pricing.

NFL SUNDAY ATS RECAP AND A LOOK AT TEXANS/STEELERS

Monday, 20 October, 2014

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Lets recap yet another wild Sunday in the NFL ATS. On my side of things it was another great weekend ATS. In the NFL I swept the board for the second straight Sunday, going 4-0. ATS winners were with the Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and best bet of the week on the Denver Broncos.

All played fairly well to their numbers except for the Cowboys being down by a touchdown in the second quarter to the Giants. They were able to turn things around and capitalize on big play after big play.

I do have Monday Night’s game as the last one on my NFL board for week seven. Thus far I am 20-5-1 ATS on the year for a whopping 80% in the NFL.

The current line has the Steelers at -3 and a total of 44.5.

Click on the TAB today’s picks to get Monday Night football’s winner for just $30.

HANDICAPPING NFL SUNDAY TIPS

Sunday, 19 October, 2014

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If you’re looking for consistency in ATS plays be sure to get on board with me. I’m 16-5 ATS in the NFL—-76%. To view this for documentation visit kellyinvegas.com where I submit the same plays via their picks archives database. Not on easy mark to achieve but it’s only through six weeks of the NFL season. Go to today’s picks and view my Sunday four game pass that includes MNF for just $65.

Instead of going the free play route I’ll delve into some handicapping tips for this week in the NFL.

** Limit your plays on totals. There are professional handicappers that steer clear of totals and it’s for a good reason. They’re difficult to pick on a consistent basis. Oddsmakers have a far and away better advantage on totals because of the unpredictability of miscues. Missed field goals, special teams errors (returns and muffs), defensive touchdowns, etc, can drag a total one way in a hurry. I always limit my total plays and it should be one of your trademark rules as well.

** Avoid playing the same team ATS on consecutive weeks. This is one of my personal rules because a winning ticket on a team you played the last week gives you a bit of a heightened influence on that team. You have a narrow view on them because you’re thinking of what they did for you last—CASH. Guess what, they’re not playing that team again this week and a lot changes in a span of a week. Ask people that bet Cincinnati after New England’s blowout loss to Kansas City. There are enough games to find better value without last week being an influencing factor.

** Prime time should not always be avoided. You shouldn’t be thinking about betting a prime time game after the Sunday day and afternoon games are complete. Or even Monday Night’s game on Sunday. Know your plays by before Sunday and stick to them. That gives you time to analyze the complete board and feel confident in your plays. Some people are scared to play the prime time games because of the money flow on them or to protect their gains or losses for the week. If you’ve analyzed the board properly and you like the Prime Time game, play it.

Common Denominator: Year of the Repeat Champion

Friday, 17 October, 2014

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The word “trend” is tossed around by a sports handicapper as habitually as a person texts “LOL” on a daily basis. It’s an embedded research tool that some handicappers base their top picks and situational games off of. I’m shocked to see that there has not been any coverage on the obvious trend of 2014.

It’s been a year of champions being crowned champions again. The UConn Huskies won their fourth NCAA title in men’s basketball. They won it in 1999, 2004, 2011, and 2014. The women’s team won yet again and added to their illustrious domination of college women’s basketball.

In golf, Bubba Watson won the Master’s tournament again. Over in the NBA the Spurs knocked down the Miami Heat to finish what they thought they had done the year prior. And now in baseball the San Francisco Giants are four games a way from winning their third title in five years.

I’ve glorified this trend on twitter before but now it’s time to get out in front for the NFL this season.

Will it be the 3-3 New York Giants that stave off their injuries and personnel issues to make another title run for Tom Coughlin? It sounds preposterous now but should it be laughed about that hard? Probably not. At 125-1 odds, the Giants may be worth a stab from my wallet. After all the NFC East has been a division notorious for 9-7 division winners. Philadelphia has won some games by playing an ugly style and Dallas is starting to look like an elite team. But knock out Tony Romo with his bad back or DeMarco Murray and what happens in Dallas? Their offense doesn’t control the game anymore which puts their susceptible defense back onto the field for longer durations.

The Baltimore Ravens are 26-1 before week seven’s game against the Falcons. They’re not being discussed as a top team just yet but have the formula to get back in the winner’s circle. Their defense is flying after the ball again, and their ace quarterback has found his 2012 rhythm again. Veteran additions such as Steve Smith are paying dividends and the big driver no one can forget is the team is playing with ammo after the Ray Rice incident. The bottom line is they’re playing great football in a division that might be the best in football.

An even larger Super Bowl odd are the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re 130-1. At 3-3 and with their history this seems awfully odd. Big Ben has won two Super Bowls and the first was with a team that barely snuck into the playoffs. Coach Mike Tomlin has his hands full but this team is not a 130-1 type of team to me. In fact their team reminds me of the Ravens team of two years ago. Their defense has a lot of aging players like the Ravens did with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. But the offense may be in position to outscore opponents and aide their aging defense.

Last but not least are the New England Patriots. The media beaten down team of just three games ago has silenced their critics with three straight wins. This is the team that fits the mold the best of comparable other sports teams like the Spurs and San Francisco Giants. At 13-1 right now could value be any higher on a team led by Bill Belicheck? Does the coach and his quarterback Tom Brady have one last ride in them?

I don’t about you but I’ll be spreading some wagers across all four of these teams. The Seahawks, Broncos, Cowboys, 49ers, Packers, and other people’s spur of the moment teams can have their shine right now. When it’s all said and done we will have another repeat champion crowned.

Watch a week seven ATS preview of the Saints vs Lions game. If interested in weekend premium plays click under “Today’s Pick’s” to gain access to Saturday and Sunday’s plays.

A LOOK AT JETS VS PATRIOTS ATS

Thursday, 16 October, 2014

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Tonight’s matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots is sure to draw heavy amounts of money in the sportsbooks tonight. The common question with this game is figuring out which team is what right now. The Jets seem to be in total disarray but seemed to fight hard in a valiant home loss to the Broncos a week ago. Buyers of the Broncos barely escaped with a cover.

Geno Smith performed decent in that game and the Jets defense held up fairly well against the Broncos high flying passing attack.

New England on the other hand is coming of two dominating wins, garnering bandwagon media attention. Just two weeks ago the media and fans were ready to write the ending of Tom Brady’s career.

Centering around this match up, you have to factor in two measurables before placing a bet. One is the distinct fact that the Jets are ready to unravel completely before Mike Vick is inserted at quarterback. And on the Patriots side of things, you have to wonder if a down to Earth game is upon them.

It was not very long ago that they struggled to win at home versus the Oakland Raiders. This was before the Raiders fired Dennis Allen after a beat down in London to the Miami Dolphins.

This play is not a part of my premium play package but I do side with the underdog for value purposed sports betting tonight. New faces have sprung up in the Patriots offense over the last few weeks. Expect the Jets to game plan to shut the Patriots new wrinkles down defensively. The impact of not having a mid-tier running back with Stevan Ridley out is also a big factor. I’m not a believe in James White or Bolden. Shane Vereen is more of your scat back and not ball carrier.

Side with the Jets if you must get a wager in.

If you’re looking for premium plays, click under today’s picks. I have all my weekend plays ready to go. College Saturday features three games and NFL Sunday features four games plus the MNF game as an added bonus. I’ve been the top handicapper in the country in the NFL with an ATS record of 16-5-1 and in NCAA football I am 17-12.