Follow@cimini

The latest element of a possible injury altering the Finals occurred for the Warriors last night. Klay Thompson took a knee to the head and appeared to be cleared by the Warriors medical staff. After the series clinching win, Thompson began to suffer concussion-like symptoms. Concussions are a tricky facet of any sport for diagnosis and clearance.

With a week off before the NBA Finals begin on June 4th, the last stage for future wagers is set. There were stages in the playoffs the Cavaliers were in the plus-200 range, which was a higher price than most stages of the regular season.

For the Warriors the only price drop that occurred for them was when they were down 2 games to 1 to the Memphis Grizzlies. Surprisingly you could have grabbed the Warriors around +170-+190 for an NBA title and as high as +120 to win the West. After game four against the Grizzlies their odds shifted back to normal range.

Both the Cavaliers and Warriors enter the Finals a bit banged up. That’s expected in any sport at this stage of the season. Where both of these teams have clear advantages is with their depth. The Warriors can go up to ten players deep. Cleveland may not have the same offensive fire power that deep but can match opposing teams with their defense.

Golden State has shown to be prone to have mental lapses in the playoffs. It occurred on multiple occasions against the Pelicans and Grizzlies. In fact, if the Grizzlies did not have to play with a banged up Mike Conley and injured Tony Allen who knows if that series would have went seven games.

The Rockets were a favorable matchup for the Warriors as they play with tempo and high-scoring offense similar to the Warriors. The Warriors were more efficient all season and that showed against the Rockets.

In the NBA Finals will the Warriors be able to avoid the same mental lapses they’ve shown throughout the playoffs? The Cavaliers will be utilizing this rest to their advantage and have won seven straight playoff games.

From a handicapping perspective, this will actually be a series that I decide to straight wager on a game to game basis. I’ll be looking at probably three plays in the series. At this point I do not see any reason to place a series wager. Odds shift enough in that area that you’ll probably be able to land the same or better value after games 3-5.

Pick your spots well. This time off can be a detriment in the handicapping world. Bettors have become accustomed to watching the NBA on a nightly basis and may get antsy for that first game on the 4th. Be patient, and stick to the same discipline that leads to handicapping success. It should be a fantastic series and worth the wait.

Follow@cimini

NFL win totals were recently released by LVH Westgate in Las Vegas. Last June I profiled grabbing the under on Saints wins for the 2014 season. The entire division was in free fall mode and that was a solid grab for all of us.

This upcoming season, I’ve had my eyes on a team that I knew would come into the 2015 season with devalued buyers and odds. San Francisco is a team that seems bent backwards from an organizational stand point and player personnel. They’ve had issues dating back to a season ago that have transpired into Jim Harbaugh exiting, two players retiring on defense, and a new head coach in Jim Tomsula. A recipe that in normal organizations would lead you to believe a down season is upcoming.

An overhaul of this size may save the transitional phase of Colin Kaepernick’s career. San Francisco never let Colin be himself from a quarterback stand point. His success during their Super Bowl run came from utilizing him as a mobile quarterback. They rolled him out for big play action gains with Vernon Davis or ran the wildcat to perfection. The toned down use of the wildcat was understandable, but making him a pocket quarterback made no sense to me.

San Francisco never truly had capable receivers that got open on a consistent basis besides Anquan Boldin. Michael Crabtree was hurt far too often and is now a Raider. Davis has been back and forth healthwise but has been their main asset on offense.

The raw talent and capability is there for Kaepernick. Even during his rough phase the past two seasons he has shown enough glimpses to showcase an uptick with new surroundings. Against the Saints he showed poise on the road in a game where he had to utilize his arm via mobility. Down in the fourth quarter he threw a missile downfield that ended up leading the 49ers to victory. The first game of the 2013 season against the Packers was one of the top quarterback performances I can recall watching over the past two years. He threw for over 400 yards and made sideline throws that are unmatched by the majority of NFL quarterbacks due to his overall strength.

This offseason he has spent time training with Kurt Warner and should show development from Warner’s teachings.

Frank Gore was one of the key assets that kept the 49ers from self destructing completely the past couple of seasons. But the time was appropriate to move on and let Carlos Hyde become a feature back along with newly signed veteran Reggie Bush. The speed components of Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson are going to allow for Kaepernick to showcase his deep ball more often. His primary deep ball target has solely been Vernon Davis the past two seasons.

From a division stand point it’s hard to fathom the Cardinals replicating last year’s success. They won far too many games from relying on their defense. Counting on turnovers and stout defense can not be accounted for as often as the Cardinals did last season. St. Louis is still in limbo in my eyes. They have the great coach in Jeff Fisher but the offense remains a huge question mark. The same can be said for Seattle. The addition of Jimmy Graham looks great on paper but will Russ Wilson be able to fit the billing?

Wilson and the Seahawks have had their supreme rise done via a great home field advantage and timely plays on defense and from Wilson with his legs. I haven’t seen enough from Wilson’s arm to believe he can be a top ten drop back passer. Defensively they’ve come down to Earth substantially from their Super Bowl winning season. The Chargers, Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, and Rams showcased that you can attack the Seahawks defense and put the pressure on the offense to produce.

The x-factor in my decision to grab the 49ers is their new Head Coach in Jim Tomsula. The Pennsylvania product has truly worked his way up the ranks. He had a great track record during his years coaching defense in NFL Europe. Since 2007 he has been a part of the 49ers organization as their defensive coordinator. Many people scratched their heads at his hiring but he is the player’s coach that leads to success for NFL franchises. Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Bruce Arians, etc.

Tomsula will get the job done. Gaps currently seen on defense will be filled before the season begins. Offensively the 49ers may have their best offensive team in years.

Play the over on 7.5 wins with the 49ers.

Follow@cimini

Predictions in the handicapping world typically leave the option of “hedging a wager” on the table. At some point the thought should always cross your mind. When in position to get your ROI or make a small profit there is no reason not to pass that up. The Bulls are now up two games to one over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Readers that have followed my futures advice via blog and twitter are in shape to set themselves up in one of two ways.

One, you can split your hedge money by grabbing the series price on the Cavaliers and also hedge on the Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference. Depending on where you are looking, currently the series price is near even or slightly on the Bulls side. The future to win the Eastern Conference currently has the Bulls at +177, Cavaliers +187, and the Hawks +225. Before game three the Bulls were in the low +200 range and the Cavaliers were in the low +100’s.

I still like the Bulls to win the Eastern Conference. Before tomorrow’s game four I likely will get the Cavs as a series/Eastern Conference future to hedge.

Of course you’ll be taking a bit off the table from any potential future that you have on the Bulls. At +750 you can’t be too upset with the value. They dropped significantly to around the +575 range before the playoffs and of course have steadily dropped in price.

In the handicapping world greed is going to hurt you more than help you. Grab the hedge advantage if you’re in position.

Follow Zack on Twitter via his handle @cimini

It’s Friday which means most of the work world’s focus will be shifting to a weekend mode here in just a few hours. With the weekend approaching typically the sportsbooks in Las Vegas will see a rise in game action. That begins today on Friday as there is a scattered board of games in MLB, hockey, and of course the NBA playoffs.

Money moves on favorites draw the most attention from bettors. If markets were that easy everyone would be 60% and above at handicapping and make this market as easy as the stock market the last four years. Of course that’s not the case. Value is the only way you’re going to truly make a profit in sports handicapping.

Today key line moves have seen odds shift in the Twins/Indians(Twins side), Rangers/Rays (Rangers side), Reds/White Sox (White Sox side)and Mets/Phillies (Mets side).

Today is a big board here at notjustagame.com. I have four plays available for purchase at . All plays were sent out last night at 19:00 PT. On the board are three MLB plays and one NBA playoff play. It’s never too late to get on board. Of course once game time hits than it’s on to the next possible day for a prospective client.

Follow on Twitter@cimini

Value in the futures market is typically tight in the majority of sports. Barring an injury, you’re typically not going to get anything higher than 25-1 in major professional sports. The collegiate market is vastly different. There is more uncertainty with recruits and obviously there is a larger pool of teams. Shifting of odds are constant and at a considerable higher benchmark. The difficulty to make it through an NCAA tournament in March presents that variable of such expanded odds.

Those that have followed my collegiate advice over the years, have seen that I’ve picked four of the past five college basketball tournament winners. Louisville and Duke were teams that I picked before their respective seasons. I liked the returning players from Louisville’s team and the coaching factor with Rick Pitino. Duke’s scenario had more to do with their incoming recruits and also the extra edge with Coach K. UConn’s title runs, I made both picks during the season. I grabbed UConn at 40-1 during their conference slide in 2011 and I grabbed them during their tournament run at 35-1 before the sweet 16.

Heading into the 2015 season I do not have an odds on favorite at this moment. This is where I typically probe the market and grab a few value plays. The only one I’ve made so far was on the Orangemen at 200-1 a couple of weeks back. Odds that have dropped down to 50-1 just two weeks later.

Syracuse certainly will not be a top 20 team to start the season, but they have the make up of a team that will get better as the season goes on. Obviously there were market indicators that caused their price to leap to 200-1. One, their season is marked a bit by the forth coming Jim Boeheim conference suspension of nine games. That is in the appeal process and I believe it will end up being reduced. Nonetheless, their assistant coach in Mike Hopkins has been Boeheim’s aide for a long time. He has been a finalist the past several seasons for Division I positions and should be fine running Syracuse if Boeheim misses the entire nine games.

Another factor was the reduction of scholarships for Syracuse basketball. They will lose 2-3 a season for the duration of the imposed sanctions by the NCAA. As Jay Bilas noted, a school like Syracuse is not going to be effected by this. Duke just won the 2014-2015 NCAA title with only eight scholarship players. Losing BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson as transfers is not an alarming issue for depth next season. Johnson did show some promise but I did not envision him becoming capable of starters minutes. Patterson is just not an ACC player. Both made wise decisions to step down in competition to increase their presence for their collegiate careers. Similar to DaShonte Riley when he exited Syracuse for Eastern Michigan; decisions to leave Syracuse are not going to cause a seismic decline on the court for Syracuse.

Syracuse has a top five recruiting class coming in, but I won’t even delve into how they’ll help next year’s squad. Instead the focus will be on the returning group of players.

The fact that Syracuse lost Rakeem Christmas to graduation and that Chris McCullough declared for the NBA Draft was another reason odds were at 200-1 in April. Over the last eight years, Syracuse has only had three seasons where they counted on point production inside. Last year with Christmas, a few seasons back with Rick Jackson, and the combo efforts of Jackson/Onuako in 2010. Fab Melo had one semi-decent year but was more of a mirage for production.

Syracuse has always been a program that counts on offensive production from their guards and forwards. The key for their big men is the ability to defend the interior and grab rebounds in the 2-3 zone. The best decision Syracuse made last year was to not rush DaJuan Coleman back. His last game on the court came against Virginia Tech in December 2013. It’s still not known how much he will be able to provide but he is expected to return. Maybe it’ll be in a limited role but 15-20 minutes a game on defense will go a long ways. Coleman and Chinonso Obokoh should be more than capable of protecting the rim for Syracuse.

Scoring 60-65 points a game typically is going to put you in position to win games. College basketball’s pace and poor shot selection leaves plenty of teams unwatchable. Syracuse has four players that should easily put them in position every game to score in that range. Seniors in Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinje had effective seasons in 2014. Their confidence should only grow with another offseason of preparation. Sophomore Kaleb Joseph went through his freshman slump but started to turn the corner late in conference play. Sophomore guards/point guards typically rise in level of play after their freshman seasons at Syracuse. Michael Carter-Williams, Johnny Flynn, Brandon Triche, Scoop Jardine, and even Cooney rose to higher levels their sophomore years. Joseph will be the x-factor on if Syracuse stays around the 25-35 range of top teams or ascends into the top 10-15.

I think we’ve seen the best that Syracuse will likely receive from Tyler Roberson. He is a tough guard inside for opposing defenders but will have to earn his points as the third to fourth option on the floor for Syracuse. Designed plays are going to run through Cooney/Joseph/Gbinje. Still, Roberson has the size and aggression to be an 8-10 points a game scorer.

200-1 was an obvious mistake from oddsmakers. When UConn received their one-year post season ban they came back and played with a chip on their shoulder. It took almost the entire season for UConn to find their way, but they did right before the tournament. It took a couple of beat down losses to Louisville in conference play for that to happen.

It’ll be a long season for Syracuse fans but don’t be shocked to see them make a run when March hits. If you didn’t get 200-1 odds a few weeks ago, I wouldn’t be upset. 50-1 are still solid odds. They have 5-6 veteran players and a good group of incoming freshman to make them a viable team in 2015-2016.

Follow@cimini

The first round of the NBA playoffs is just about concluded. Not many folks would have predicted the Hawks and Nets to last this long. Honestly, the first two games happened to fall the Hawks way or the Hawks could be at a deficit in this series currently.

After a 2-0 premium selection day here at Notjustagame.com, Thursday, Friday is officially a board pass. MLB seems like a tough board. I’ll instead use it as an evaluation day for future games. I’ve also passed on game six between the Hawks and Nets. Lets discuss game six briefly.

In a series that featured four quality games and then a bit of a pull away from the Hawks in game five, one has to wonder if the Hawks just put the dagger in the Nets Friday. They’re the #1 seed of course but clearly they’ve been a team that has not had the look of one. The Nets are not an offensive team yet have had contributions from a vast amount of players.

Inside they’re struggling to contain Lopez and have also had a tough time guarding the perimeter. On the other side of things the Nets aren’t a poor defensive team and have made a solid effort at getting after Kyle Korver. Lets not forget their head coach in Lionel Hollins was formerly the coach of the hard-nosed Grizzlies team.

From my eyes I just have not seen enough from the Hawks to back them in this game six spot. Likewise, there is no way I will back a below .500 eighth seeded team at this point in a series either. This is a low number for the circumstances but I’d rather use it as an assessing day.

Just because it’s the only NBA game on the board Friday does not mean it requires action. Saturday’s board should feature 2-3 plays here at Notjustagame.com.