Follow@cimini

Last year there were numerous players capable of winning Finals MVP between the Spurs and Heat. The list ranged deep before you would see Kawhi Leonard’s name at 20-1. He defended, scored, and rebounded to become the catalyst to be the difference and MVP a season ago.

This year both the Cavaliers and Warriors have the same deep pedigree of talented players. With the Warriors favored to win the series, Stephen Curry(reg season MVP) is also the odds on favorite to win Finals MVP at -175.

While the top of the heap features the expected big names, I’m always one to venture down the list for value purposes. This past NCAA championship I recommended Tyus Jones at 25-1 for Duke. During last year’s NBA Finals I recommended a hedge on the MVP(recommended Spurs to win title at 5-1 earlier in the playoffs) by grabbing Dwayne Wade at 10-1 for Finals MVP. I figured if the Heat had any chance of beating the Spurs Wade would have to turn to his old ways for a series—flashes he did show throughout the end of the regular season and some of the NBA playoffs.

This year we’ve heard people rationalize time and time again that Draymond Green is the key to the Warriors even with how well Stephen Curry has played. Curry fills the stat sheet while Green just does his job. That has somewhat changed as the season has stretched on. Green is becoming more and more involved in the offense.

With Klay Thompson’s status unknown, the shifting priorities of the Warriors and Cavs could play into the hands of Green. The Cavaliers are already a strong defensive team that would be able to shift more focus on the perimeter and on Stephen Curry. This would lead to more opportunities for another Warrior player to step up offensively, and you’d have to think Green would be one of the main options in that department.

Defensively, what he can do guarding various players already has his value as a sleeper MVP warranted.

Currently you can grab Green at 15-1 odds. We’re three days away from the Finals beginning and have yet to hear Thompson’s status. Grab the odds now before they shift on word of Thompson possibly missing game one or more.

Follow@cimini

Weeks ago I wrote an article on capitalizing on the Spurs at future odds of 3-1 and 5-1. Those odds were in the Dallas series. There was only a day that the odds were at 5-1, when they were down 2-1 in the series to the Mavericks.

It’s easy to jump on series odds when it’s down to the final two teams. Action is likely sky rocketing on both the Heat at +105 and Spurs at -125. The fact of the matter is that neither price has great line value right now.

Oddmakers are at your mercy right now. They have the series priced exactly how it should be. The home team Spurs are the odds on slight favorite, but they’re not writing off the possibility of a three peat by the Heat.

The best approach if you did not pick the Heat or Spurs weeks ago, is to wait out two to three games.

This series is projected to go seven games by just about every media outlet. The Spurs want to end a dynasty that’s been around since the late 90’s, and the Heat want to get a coveted three peat.

This will not be a quick series.

As in any type of financial market, the proper time to make money is when the odds become a better buy. If any of these teams gets down one game by losing home court advantage, injuries, or a 2-0 deficit, value is going to shift.

This would be the opportunity to pounce on a future buy.

Hold your reservations on placing your money on the counter. Yes there has been a big gap of NBA rest days from conference championships to the start of the Finals. But action will begin Thursday.

If you’re really looking at getting a solid wager on a future bet in the series, put a play on the series MVP.

Follow @cimini

If you’ve been following the eastern conference at all this postseason than today’s free total should not be hard to predict. Of all the series though this eastern conference final has been a bit tricky in terms of totals. Game six though will not fall into that category of surprises.

For those that believe Chris Anderson’s suspension should boost the Pacers offense should think otherwise. Anderson is a viable player off the bench, but this Heat team has played undersized for two years, including last years postseason ride. Anderson has been more beneficial on the offensive end. A lineup change without Anderson means that Udonis Haslem, and even Joel Anthony will see increased minutes.

With Dwayne Wade and Ray Allen struggling offensively, this game is going to turn much more like the second half of game five. Lebron James is going to have to play a role he was similar to doing as a Cleveland Cavalier. He’ll try and do it all, and will the Heat to a win.

Playing that style against two defensive minded teams bodes high for this total to trump well under 183. Play the under of the first half total and game, to grab two secure wins on Saturday.

It’s a potential closeout game, and Indiana has to up the ante. It’s not going to happen offensively if they want to make it to a game seven. Lance Stephenson continues to put up horrendous jump shots. He had a few in game five come closer to landing in South Beach than the hoop.

The oddmakers have this one right by reducing this total from 186.5 from game five.