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I’ve said all along that the Spurs will win the NBA championship. They came into the 2013 season with an eye on the prize after last year’s let down. They’ll still need to win one more game to accomplish that goal. A goal that looks more and more in their hands with the Heat breaking down.

The series is 3-1, and for how well the Spurs have played in Miami, it can’t be overlooked how well Miami played in San Antonio. The Heat could have very well won two games in San Antonio. Barrages of extreme offensive efficiency from all of the Spurs would have been too much for any team to overcome. In fact, their display of offensive prowess has occurred in series against Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Portland.

Portland was the only team totally befuddled by the Spurs to make it a six game series or longer. Dallas was able to calm the storm enough to push the Spurs to seven games. While the Thunder pushed back to even the series with Ibaka back, but could not muster that same resilience in games five and six.

The type of demolishing performances the Spurs put on against the Heat was keyed by the Spurs bench. Patty Mills couldn’t miss, Boris Diaw toned down his turnovers to became an assist catalyst, and Kawhi Leonard had his best two game stretch of his NBA career. It looked like the team just kept the momentum going as if game three never ended.

Those type of performances could repeat themselves against an ordinary team, but the Spurs are playing the Heat in an elimination game.

An elimination game that could mean the ending of a four year era, as well as the looming prospects of the Heat being remolded without LeBron James.

If the Heat go down losing they won’t lose based on poor defense again. They’re strength has been defense all year. Remember it was game one that they forced the Spurs into numerous turnovers.

If even one of the Spurs catalysts in games three or four falter, this should be an easy play on the under. All eyes are fixated on the latest happenings of the Spurs offensive efficiency.

Danny Green is replicating his 2013 hot start in the Finals. Will he cool off like a year ago?

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One of the biggest mistakes sports bettors make is assuming. This team can’t lose again, or it’s going to be a blowout after what happened to them last game. Settings do change, as game four is yet another high stakes NBA Finals game.

But a 5.5 point spread is too many in my estimation. What we just saw a bit over 24 hours ago, is the same product producing an extra point to point and a half on the spread. Is there reason for this? The only reason is that Vegas and bettors are assuming the Heat are going to respond in blowout fashion. They have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation. A loss means they had to San Antonio in an elimination game five matchup.

What bettors should be thinking is that this is a golden opportunity to play the points. I gave out a premium play on the over in game three, and for game four I’m giving out a free play on the Spurs.

It’s a simple tactic in handicapping. What you see is what you get. Don’t assume, go off of results.

San Antonio has the arsenal to adjust on the fly. Early in the series the Heat made it a focus to shut down Tony Parker. It worked, so San Antonio shifted to their big man Tim Duncan. San Antonio shifted again to perimeter offense with the likes of Manu Ginobli, Patty Mills, and Danny Green. That still hasn’t been relegated. Heading into game four we still don’t know if the Heat have a new answer for Kawhi Leonard.

Any type of adjustment the Heat make the Spurs can counter it with more offense.

The bottom line is any Heat wins are going to be close in this series. They truly have to win a game down to the wire to out duel this Spurs team. It’s how they won a championship a year ago against the Spurs.

San Antonio is too experienced and well rounded of a team to be offered 5.5 points.

Take the points and you’ll be breathing easily going into halftime, unlike bettors with money on Miami.