Backup Quarterback Fantasy Mistake

Follow@cimini Many covet grabbing a top rated player and player’s in the first six to eight rounds of fantasy football drafts. We all know that injuries run rampant for starters because they are on the field the most. Grabbing other starters in the mid to late rounds with possible upside is the area owners lack preparation on. Complaining about injuries every year to why your team fell apart gets old. Pre-plan better and execute proper acquisitions in your entire fantasy draft. If a GM of a team became lackadaisical with their mid to late round draft picks, you’d see it on the field. Turnover of those draft picks would be evident. When it’s time to depend on those young athletes there is no one to properly do so, and the team morale dips. You’re in charge of your fantasy team, and it can’t all be revamped through a trade or the waiver wire. Josh Freeman is a fantasy quarterback that likely went undrafted in a large portion of drafts (Available in 63% of Yahoo Leagues). Freeman is a quarterback that I believe is going into 2013 vastly underrated. Everyone is high on Doug Martin, and the Buccaneers receivers in Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. A simple premise would lead you to believe that Freeman could and should bounce back in 2013. He is in the second year with this Buccaneers core group and offense. A running game is supposed to open up the passing attack—and Martin is projected to be a top three to five running back. If Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams build upon last year—as they should—who is going to be a beneficiary of their success? Josh Freeman A lot of people believe Freeman is not the guy Schiano wants to back, and feel Freeman fits the old Jason Campbell mold. Solid but not good enough to garner a starting position in the NFL. Wait a minute. Just a few seasons ago Freeman quelled that speculation with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Even last year his touchdown totals were not bad with 27. That total ranked him 7th in the NFL for touchdown passes. Sure his interceptions at seventeen were higher than people would like, but the fact is, Freeman can throw the football. I do not believe the Buccaneers will opt to bench Freeman in favor of Glennon. If they do it’s going to be much later in the season, when the Buccaneers are clearly out of playoff contention. The potential is there for Freeman to have a bright season and surprise some folks like he did a few seasons ago. We’re not talking about a quarterback I’d expect you to draft as a starter. Freeman is a backup fantasy quarterback just being overlooked. Do you really want Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and several other quarterbacks drafted as backups over Freeman? All of the quarterbacks I just mentioned have shaky running back situations—in fact only Rivers has one that should be decent but has been tabbed rightfully as injury prone and inconsistent. Freeman may not cut his interceptions down dramatically, but a rise in touchdown passes could offset that. I’ll re-state that he threw 24 touchdowns in his first full year as starter, and then 27 last year under a new offense. You’d think the next step would be to reach darn close to thirty touchdown passes. He is in a contract year as well, with the burden of performing well on his shoulders. The veterans in the NFL are well established and then there is the budding talent of youth that has stormed the league. Guys like Josh Freeman are being overlooked far too much. He has better fantasy caliber than quite a few fantasy backup quarterbacks that were drafted over him. I don’t expect the Yahoo fantasy ownership numbers to be below 75-80% for far too long. In fact, I’ll boldly state that Freeman is one of the biggest percentage leapers from non-rosters before the NFL season to being an addition by week four.

Twitter Questions @Cimini

Lets not base the first three games as an entirety to the season. If that were the case Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady would not even be first tier quarterbacks right now. Brady is ranked 15th and Rodgers 21st currently. Just like with true NFL teams, early season hype for a scattered amount of teams will fade and be evaporated to near .500 seasons by December.

We know which big time players are going to turn around their season because of their history. But where is a quarterback like Josh Freeman headed?

Freeman’s 2010 stellar season seems like a year distant to a veteran winding down his quarterback years. That’s what makes Freeman’s downward spiral and lateral stagnancy so puzzling. Last years lockout appeared to have hurt Freeman more than any quarterback in football. Rapid changes are also an issue that is likely a main factor in Freeman not coming out with better performances.

A new coach, running back, and adjustment to Vincent Jackson all takes time. The early season rust by Josh Freeman should not be over examined. Even though the stats do not jump out on paper from his first three games, Freeman and the Buccaneers have been in every game.

In fact they should be 2-1 if it were not for a colossal collapse by their defense in the fourth quarter against the Giants.

This next month will be a high indicator if Freeman is ever going to move past last season. The Buccaneers have an early bye week, week five, which can do wonders for a quarterback. His one game before the bye week and two after the bye week are three of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

Washington currently ranks second to last in pass defense, and we all know how poor the Saints have been defensively as a whole. Kansas City’s defense would be ranked worse if it were not for the Bills and Falcons letting up in the second half with huge leads.

So the opportunity for a fantasy quarterback to turn their year around and become relevant, can’t be better than Josh Freeman’s position. His season statistically could not have started off worse. With Freeman as low as he could possibly be from a fantasy perspective, now is the time to snag him.

You’d have to expect Freeman to start connecting with Vincent Jackson more, and target Mike Williams at a higher rate. This next month will be key, but the plus/minus differential for where Freeman is and where he can go currently as a fantasy quarterback is in the double digits range for improvement. Currently he is twenty ninth in passing yards and right in the middle for touchdowns thrown. A couple of three hundred yard games and he should gain the confidence to finish the year off as a solid fantasy backup quarterback.

By Zack Cimini

We’re getting close to the mid season stretch. There’s no bye weeks in the fantasy world and a shortened fantasy season at that. It’s basically panic time to do a trade or find that waiver wire gem to convert your team if you’re winless or only have a win or two. Whose available to look at? Last year we told you to snag Jamaal Charles around this time before Larry Johnson went his final slide. We’ve got some backs we think we’ll enter the fold this year and provide a huge mid to late season spark for your teams.

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman- Of the young quarterbacks in the league Freeman is starting to emerge from the pack. He has a solid reportoire of throws and doesn’t destroy a fantasy team with interceptions. He is consistently targeting rookie Mike Williams and taking a bigger role with a lackluster running game. As the season wears on Freeman is going to be counted on to make even bigger plays with his arm. They’ve been winning tight games to have a winning record at 3-1. Take a flyer on Freeman if you’re hurting at quarterback or looking for one that will be pivotal during fantasy playoffs.

Kevin Kolb- Chances are he was abandoned by any owner that drafted him once Vick entered the fold. He made some solid plays against the 49ers and the Eagles got a pivotal win. The back and forth circus with the Eagles quarterbacks is going to have to end soon. A hot streak by Kolb would force the Eagles to keep playing whose winning games.

David Garrard- Garrard’s put together two solid fantasy games in a row. Scoring three touchdowns in both. The yardage isn’t there and at best Garrard is only an option in deep fantasy leagues. You could plug him in as a bye week filler or give him a shot a few times when matchups present themselves.

Running Backs

Fred Jackson- With Marshawn Lynch out of the fold we all did not know how the Bills would divide carries amongst Jackson and Spiller. Jackson seems to be the number one back as he doubled Spiller’s Sunday. It could be a back and forth carry load between the two. Value is there with Jackson though especially with the Bills trying to control the ball and limit their passes.

Javon Ringer- Keep an eye on the Titans love affair to fill Chris Johnson’s preseason predictions. They’re giving him a ton of carries and he has taken a beating for five games for it. The breakaway runs are not occurring at the high pace we saw last year. He’s still piling hundred yard games but they’re in the power back style of yards not the flashy explosive way of a year ago. If this style keeps up there is no doubt Johnson will get hurt. He doesn’t have the size to take the hits he has for sixteen games. Ringer can fill in and prove to be a fantasy midseason gem.

LeGarette Blount- Tampa Bay needs to make a decision at running back. Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham are not going to be backs that can carry you to a playoff run. This team will fade if they keep putting it in those backs hands. Blount has had more opportunities as a young back than anyone could of imagined. The talent is there and Tampa will slowly but surely move the carries into his hands.

Jerome Harrison- He is back to full health and getting a handful of carries the past few weeks. Don’t wait for a monster game from him before getting him on your roster. Bury him now and wait for the magic.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis- Sooner or later facts are just facts. His whole career Lewis had one fantasy game a year that he would dot the radar. Now he is an emerging force that has to be recognized. He has five touchdowns on the year and has bypassed all Jaguars receivers as Garrard’s favorite target. Yardage still is not very high but that’s correlated to David Garrard’s overall numbers.

Danny Amendola- The Rams are going to have to rely on Amendola the Hard Knocks profiled Cowboy of a year ago booted out. They’ve had a cast of receivers drop that made them trade for Mark Clayton. Now that he has went down it’s going to be Amendola’s show. Poor Sam Bradford.

Deion Branch- Reuniting in New England makes Branch a season long waiver wire play to a guy worth looking at. He’ll step in an offense that needs his play and is one he is familiar with. Injuries may have slowed him down but expect extra pep in his steps now that he is on a winning team.
Ted Ginn Jr.- Ginn was a first round pick do not forget. Number ninth drafted in fact. Even a year ago he was shockingly the Dolphins number one receiver. He’ll never be a number one go to guy but can flourish with his speed opposite someone like Michael Crabtree. Ever since the 49ers fired the offensive coordinator Alex Smith’s yards have went up and the offense has clicked better. Who knows how much longer Smith will be out under center for the 49ers. Ginn’s made a small impact his first two games back and should continue to get more involved as he gets back on track from early season injuries.

Steve Johnson- Any time Ryan Fitzpatrick has a decent throwing day, Johnson’s in the stat column. Four touchdowns on the year already and getting involved more and more on every down situations. Lee Evans has taken a step back this year and Johnson appears to be the emerging option as sad as that sounds.