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Preseason football is a mere two weeks away. The month of August will feature a gamut of games. With that comes the lure of point spreads. The NFL is probably the toughest to handicap on a week to week basis. But some find the preseason easier to handicap. I find that odd as playing time is unpredictable and point spreads can often come down to third stringers.

The best comparison of this would be the NBA Summer League. Point spreads have been available for the summer league for a good three years now. Often times the point spreads are set with a low variance between -1 to -5. Rosters shuffle each game whether it’s profiled rookies or second year players seeing reduced playing time, or proper evaluation by the coaching staff.

In preseason football you obviously have a higher job security basement for on field players. Besides the third preseason game, playing time from the 1st quarter onward is for players vying for backup or roster depth positions.

My advice in handicapping preseason football is similar to the regular season. Avoid the “easy” plays. People tend to believe a line movement in football indicates sharp money. Often times it’s the trap play that ends with a fourth quarter backdoor situation. Instead latch onto games where you’ve seen backup players perform well before.

Backup quarterbacks have typically seen the field as starters or in preseason situations before. Key in on if they know the playbook well or are turnover prone. Turnover prone quarterbacks and running backs do not tend to have a preseason flurry of greatness. The same tendencies usually carry over and that can be detrimental to protecting a lead or keeping the chains moving.

Leads are going to evaporate even more in preseason football. Defenses have vanilla blitzes and game plans that expose third and fourth units.

If you’re planning on wagering on preseason football set yourself a layout. In that layout I’d have the amount of games total you’d plan on wagering on. A safe number would be between a handful and low double-digits in my opinion. Keep your wagering limits also set. Whatever your regular season weekly game wagers are maybe decrease that in half.

Don’t start the regular season off on a sour-note by digging yourself an unmanageable hole from preseason. On the field coaches are evaluating all phases of their football team. Do the same be having proper discipline with preseason wagers that you can evaluate on a game to game basis.

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The latest element of a possible injury altering the Finals occurred for the Warriors last night. Klay Thompson took a knee to the head and appeared to be cleared by the Warriors medical staff. After the series clinching win, Thompson began to suffer concussion-like symptoms. Concussions are a tricky facet of any sport for diagnosis and clearance.

With a week off before the NBA Finals begin on June 4th, the last stage for future wagers is set. There were stages in the playoffs the Cavaliers were in the plus-200 range, which was a higher price than most stages of the regular season.

For the Warriors the only price drop that occurred for them was when they were down 2 games to 1 to the Memphis Grizzlies. Surprisingly you could have grabbed the Warriors around +170-+190 for an NBA title and as high as +120 to win the West. After game four against the Grizzlies their odds shifted back to normal range.

Both the Cavaliers and Warriors enter the Finals a bit banged up. That’s expected in any sport at this stage of the season. Where both of these teams have clear advantages is with their depth. The Warriors can go up to ten players deep. Cleveland may not have the same offensive fire power that deep but can match opposing teams with their defense.

Golden State has shown to be prone to have mental lapses in the playoffs. It occurred on multiple occasions against the Pelicans and Grizzlies. In fact, if the Grizzlies did not have to play with a banged up Mike Conley and injured Tony Allen who knows if that series would have went seven games.

The Rockets were a favorable matchup for the Warriors as they play with tempo and high-scoring offense similar to the Warriors. The Warriors were more efficient all season and that showed against the Rockets.

In the NBA Finals will the Warriors be able to avoid the same mental lapses they’ve shown throughout the playoffs? The Cavaliers will be utilizing this rest to their advantage and have won seven straight playoff games.

From a handicapping perspective, this will actually be a series that I decide to straight wager on a game to game basis. I’ll be looking at probably three plays in the series. At this point I do not see any reason to place a series wager. Odds shift enough in that area that you’ll probably be able to land the same or better value after games 3-5.

Pick your spots well. This time off can be a detriment in the handicapping world. Bettors have become accustomed to watching the NBA on a nightly basis and may get antsy for that first game on the 4th. Be patient, and stick to the same discipline that leads to handicapping success. It should be a fantastic series and worth the wait.

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It’s been a whirlwind year for me when it comes to futures. The future market in sports is one that often gets overlooked. If you’re in Vegas you may look at a futures sheet before a tournament, playoff, etc. Obviously the best value lies on grabbing a future before that period. Stretches of poor play, injuries, etc. will see market value rise on teams.

In the past year I’ve been able to hit the UConn Huskies at 35-1 in sweet 16 odds, San Antonio Spurs at 5-1 to win the NBA title(When they were down 2-1 to the Mavericks), and Duke/Tyus Jones MOP this past NCAA tournament. In MLB I missed on the Marlins at 100-1 and wavered from New England to Pittsburgh in the NFL. In college, I took a flyer on the Utah Utes early summer at 75-1.

It puts an extra dimension on handicapping. You can always find value out there if you look for the right book.

With the NBA playoffs about to start I’ve mentioned a team on twitter and YouTube videos that I like for a potential future. Eyes are of course on the top tier teams such as the Hawks, Cavs, Spurs, Warriors, and a few extra from the western conference. Value is not to be had with most of those teams. San Antonio’s boat has sailed drastically during their impressive double digit win-streak. But how much longer can those tired legs hold? Much like LeBron they’ve worn a lot of mileage on their legs. If it were not for a miracle Ray Allen three pointer they could be going for a three-peat title. I would not discount the Spurs but will not grab them at 2.5/3-1. They’d have to rise to the 5-1 level they were a year ago. Maybe that level creeps up again if they get down in a playoff series.

Value to me lies with the Chicago Bulls. There’s been so much negativity surrounding the Bulls cast and Derrick Rose. Rose, of course, has missed a large part of the last two seasons. He is back and all they need him to do is be a contributor. They have enough pieces now to be a contender with their bigs and improved play from their young players.

At 7/8-1 to win the Eastern Conference I love the value. Sure, currently they may face the Cavaliers in the second round, but what’s the difference now or later?

LeBron’s had his difficulties before when he faced the Bulls as a member of the Heat. They’ll pose a threat again on the interior with LeBron’s newly formed Cavaliers. It’s not a series that will be a cake walk. JR Smith’s three ball reign lately looks great, but lets not forget he lost the shot completely a playoff season with the Knicks.

There just is no value in my opinion on the Cavs at -200 or Hawks at plus 240.

Grab the Bulls at 7.5-1 and enjoy a solid NBA playoffs daily and weekly here at Notjustagame.com

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Saturday in the Big East Marquette travels to Villanova. Villanova has been a cash cow ATS this season but will the spread Saturday finally catch up to them? See what Jeff, Zack, and John have to say on this matchup.

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John, Zack, and Jeff discuss the Conference USA Saturday matchup between Western Kentucky and Marshall. Who will have the ATS advantage in this game Saturday.

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Friday there is a Pac-12 matchup between the Arizona Wildcats and Washington Huskies. Will UofA be able to bounce back after a loss to ASU? The opening spread likely will be factored as a bounce back spot even on the road for Arizona. Tune in and watch as Jeff, Zack, and John break down the game from a Vegas perspective.