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Duke put on a monster offensive performance on Saturday against Notre Dame. One that displayed just how effective Duke is growing as a team. Their young freshman are not only shooting the basketball lights out but they’re confidence amongst each other is starting to show too. Exuberant celebrations and the glow of a team that knows they’re on the verge of being one of the top teams in March.

It happens all the time in the month of February. Teams with young freshman and sophomore that take leaps and bounds in February. After back to back losses to NC State and Miami, Duke has been a much better defensive team. They clamped down against Louisville by using a zone defense and against St. John’s they wore an undersized and team with lack of depth down.

Duke is doing it in all phases now but will that translate over to continued point spread success? Money backing the Blue Devils will only continue to rise now after their strong performances. Tonight they travel and take on ACC rival Florida State.

The opening line was near 10 but has risen as high as 11.5. Florida State is a team that has been a shell of the ACC team we’ve seen the last three to four seasons. Scoring is difficult for the Seminoles as they do not have capable scorers as they did a season ago. But against teams in the ACC that are vulnerable with poor defense they have shown a tendency to claw back in games. They did so in a loss to NC State and were able to come back and defeat both Wake Forest(overtime) and Miami. They also recently defeated Virginia Tech as a slight road underdog.

Their size could be a problem for Duke but the main question is if they can avoid a poor five to seven minute stretch offensively.

It’s tough to pinpoint which Florida State team will show up. The one over the last three to four games or the one that looks like a bottom tier ACC team.

March Madness Betting Guide by betonsports.com. Check the NCAAB key betting trends today

Backing Duke after a monster home win of thirty points two days ago also one I would stay away from.

Take: Pass

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The market in college sports sees key trigger movements in point spread totals and lines all week. Many people look at the last minute fluctuation that occurs between Friday night and Saturday morning as a barometer of sharp movement. That typically is a toss up when it comes down to the final 24 hours.

An area that can’t be disputed is when we see line movement from Sunday through Friday in a game. That’s where you probably want to head for smart action. Lets take a look at four games that have had line movement throughout the week.

Some may think the value is lost because they may have missed out on two to four points. You can look at it that way, or you can say the market is telling you something. In the stock market when a stock soars five to ten dollars it typically doesn’t stop. More buyers buy and continue to push it upward. If you play all four of these games listed below, you’ll likely come out no worse than a split.

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