Danny Green is replicating his 2013 hot start in the Finals. Will he cool off like a year ago?

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One of the biggest mistakes sports bettors make is assuming. This team can’t lose again, or it’s going to be a blowout after what happened to them last game. Settings do change, as game four is yet another high stakes NBA Finals game.

But a 5.5 point spread is too many in my estimation. What we just saw a bit over 24 hours ago, is the same product producing an extra point to point and a half on the spread. Is there reason for this? The only reason is that Vegas and bettors are assuming the Heat are going to respond in blowout fashion. They have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation. A loss means they had to San Antonio in an elimination game five matchup.

What bettors should be thinking is that this is a golden opportunity to play the points. I gave out a premium play on the over in game three, and for game four I’m giving out a free play on the Spurs.

It’s a simple tactic in handicapping. What you see is what you get. Don’t assume, go off of results.

San Antonio has the arsenal to adjust on the fly. Early in the series the Heat made it a focus to shut down Tony Parker. It worked, so San Antonio shifted to their big man Tim Duncan. San Antonio shifted again to perimeter offense with the likes of Manu Ginobli, Patty Mills, and Danny Green. That still hasn’t been relegated. Heading into game four we still don’t know if the Heat have a new answer for Kawhi Leonard.

Any type of adjustment the Heat make the Spurs can counter it with more offense.

The bottom line is any Heat wins are going to be close in this series. They truly have to win a game down to the wire to out duel this Spurs team. It’s how they won a championship a year ago against the Spurs.

San Antonio is too experienced and well rounded of a team to be offered 5.5 points.

Take the points and you’ll be breathing easily going into halftime, unlike bettors with money on Miami.