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Cunningham’s effortless 98′ season, quickly vanished in 1999

On this father’s day I thought what better day to release my first installment of fantasy quarterback rankings. The same veteran quarterbacks are expected to lead the way in 2014. Much like in 1999, another year dominated by expected veteran quarterbacks, is there a steep decline coming?

In that year prolific quarterbacks suddenly became too old in a span of weeks. Quarterbacks like Steve Young, Randall Cunningham, Troy Aikman, Dan Marino, and a few others saw the door on their careers suddenly come to a screeching halt. Marino’s was by age, but Aikman, Young, and Cunningham had injuries that ravaged their old bodies.

Keep in mind Randall Cunningham was coming off a career year in 1998 with an aerial assault weekly with Randy Moss and Cris Carter. It’s still truly one of the most free flowing seasons a quarterback has had in the last 25 years. Each game Cunningham seemed to be connected.

It was a tough time in the NFL watching the old quarterbacks exit and a new breed of quarterbacks enter. Many failed, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Cade McNown, and a long list of others.

Keep that in mind when drafting the top veteran quarterbacks with high picks. None are invincible. Here is my first rankings of quarterbacks for the 2014 season.

1. Colin Kaepernick
I fully expect Kaepernick to be outrank current prognostications with this forth coming season. People and fantasy owners expected too much out of the young quarterback last year. Now with a full year under his belt, Kaepernick is going to demonstrate why the 49ers are poised to take that next step. His blazing speed is not going anywhere. The true surge of his fantasy value will come via his improvement of studying the 49ers playbook and working with his wide receivers.

2. Aaron Rodgers
From a handicapping standpoint I profiled that Rogers and the Packers could be in trouble this season. Many are high on them, but I believe they will fall short again. From a fantasy football standpoint there is no doubt that Rodgers will continue to excel; barring any injuries.

3. Andrew Luck
This should be the season that Luck supplants the veteran trio that has been dominating the top five of fantasy football (Brees, Brady, Manning). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts unveil more designated rollouts and quarterback keepers. He has the legs to cause havoc in proper open space. The ceiling still hasn’t been met from Luck, and likely won’t for a few more seasons.

4. Peyton Manning
I have my doubts with Manning this season. He has now completed two seasons as a Bronco after a full year off from surgery. People have quickly forgotten how much rehab Manning had to endure to get back on the field. In fact he had a return stretch where it looked like his arm may never get back to full strength (3 INT’s vs Falcons, etc.) But he shook that rust off and hasn’t looked back. He still has the mental fortitude to shape wins for the Broncos, but has the script been written by the Seahawks? They took away the quick check downs and that was it for Denver. More and more teams may start being more aggressive with an aging Manning.

5. Drew Brees
Will the Saints keep marching in? I was impressed with Brees last season more than any other top performing quarterback. The reason for that was because the Saints had an unusual unreliable offensive system. Whether it was at running back or even receiver, Drew Brees really did not have that main weapon besides Jimmy Graham. Graham truly made the difference in his season. Expect Brees to hold steady as a middle of the pack top ten fantasy quarterback.

6. Nick Foles
Chip Kelly made one of the more gutsy moves last year by pulling the plug on Mike Vick. Many coaches would have let a quarterback controversy roll over into the next season. Instead Vick was allowed to sign as a free agent elsewhere, and the Eagles didn’t have to fork out a heavy amount of money on a quarterback. They know who their starter is in Foles. Many want to label Foles as a system quarterback—so be it. He’ll keep getting the job done.

7. Tom Brady
Brady has kept himself in outstanding shape to further prolong his career the proper way. Some keep themselves in shape to just get by, but Brady believes he is in the best shape of his career. Judging by his body weight he looks to be telling the truth. Something Donovan McNabb could not accomplish in his mid 30’s. Brady is no longer that weekly dominating fantasy quarterback. He’ll have a few duds of low yardage or low touchdown numbers. He keeps his top ten ranking with his steadiness of reliability.

8. Cam Newton
Newton somehow dodged a fantasy bust label with a strong finish to the season. Through the first half of the year though he was looking like a nightmare in Charlotte. Rumors were swirling that the Panthers could be looking for the next option at quarterback along with axing Ron Rivera. They turned things around as a team and did so with a very basic offense. It’ll be interesting to see if they keep things going in that direction. Newton is a borderline top twelve to fourteen quarterback with his arm, but his legs catapult his worth as a top ten quarterback.

9. RG3
The Redskins ran a gauntlet attack last season. Their wide open offense did not produce wins, but kept fantasy owners happy. RG3 has been away from the spotlight this offseason, unlike last year. Hopefully his focus has not deviated. He has the talent to rise above his critics and respond similar to the way Lebron James did in Miami. The Redskins decision to rest RG3 the last two games could prove to be one of the best moves not getting constant media attention.

10. Matt Ryan
Ryan had one of those inevitable seasons that all quarterbacks have happen. Atlanta had been side stepping issues at running back for too long. The addition of Steven Jackson just was not enough. The year was further compounded by endless injuries to the Falcons receivers. A bounce back season should be in-store in the toughest division in football for Matty ice. DeVaunte Smith could end up being a welcome addition for Matt.

Others
11. Russ Wilson
12. Philip Rivers
13. Tony Romo
14. Ryan Tannehill
15. Matt Stafford
16. Jay Cutler
17. Ben Roethlisberger
18. Johnny Manziel
19. Andy Dalton
20. Sam Bradford
21. Alex Smith
22. Joe Flacco
23. Eli Manning
24. Carson Palmer
25. EJ Manuel
26. Jake Locker
27. Ryan Fitzpatrick
28. Josh McCown
29. Mike Vick
30. Matt Schaub
31. Matt Cassel
32. Chad Henne
32.

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In the next week or two the annual fantasy football and football preview magazines will raid newsstands. They come out at the perfect time. Right after the NBA playoffs and right before major league baseball all star break. So while you are bored to death in the summer transition of sports, you can rile up your buddies by re-rubbing in last years fantasy football league. Go ahead and make fun of their draft picks last year, as you already pre-plan ideally who you want to snag for your money league team.

It’s June so the first installment of fantasy quarterback rankings is here. The past two years has seen the success of rookie quarterbacks, but no, you will not see EJ Manuel listed in my top fifteen.

* Biggest Dip From Current Rankings*- Russel Wilson
Wilson to me had a sort of Tim Tebow/first year anomaly to his performance on the field. His best games stood out as they came in spotlight profiled games. But for a lot of his games on the field, it would take more than a quarter and sometimes a half before he would produce consistent drives. I’m not buying him being a top ten fantasy quarterback just yet.

*Mr. Consistent*- Matt Ryan
I’m typically not a gambler on a quarterback but you want someone who you can depend on. A borderline guy that crosses your mind as a high pick but you would not risk it. Those are the type of players that fall into your lap as a steal, and Ryan is that guy. The Falcons are going to continue to air out the football with their receivers, and Ryan is as consistent a fantasy quarterback you can find.

*Biggest Rise*- Ryan Tannehill
It won’t be in the first part of the season but beyond the second half of the year, watch out for Tannehill and his development. He was undervalued heavily last year with the play of Luck, RG3, and Wilson. Before all three became media sensations for leading their team to the playoffs, Tannehill was displaying the same grit and leadership. Stats are what people want though, and I think Miami will open things up a bit more for him this year. His current ranking of twenty should be the lowest of the season.

1. Drew Brees- No one gets to spread the football around like Drew Brees does. With the Packers signing Steven Jackson, they’re going to try and recommit to the ground game and protect their defense. Brees still has plenty of solid fantasy years left in him. The only concern that appeared last season was his two plus interception games last season.

2. Cam Newton- It’s been a quiet offseason for the Panthers and Newton. Newton has shied away from the spotlight and I expect him to get closer to his numbers from 2011 from his rookie season. Last year he was riding high from his rookie season and likely didn’t expect any bumps along the way. They came and now he has had an offseason to adjust into this third year.

3. Tom Brady- Weapons with his tight ends and the Bill Belichick offense are synchronized to perfection each season. Cue the old “Love and Marriage” song from the classic 80’s and 90’s sitcom.

4. Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers dips just a bit from the top three setting. Green Bay tried to attack teams with the air arsenal game to game, only to get bit by their defensive struggles. Clock management had to be rethought, and they did that with Steven Jackson. Expect more carries in the backfield, and less throws from Rodgers. That won’t take away from his quick strike ability, but it does factor in terms of fantasy football overall weekly points.

5. Matt Stafford- You’re probably thinking a little high for Stafford after his season a year ago. Yes, he did wreck a lot of owners seasons for those that reached out high on him. With Megatron on the field and Stafford’s growth and maturity, I do not believe he will have a repeat of last years inconsitencies. You should not have to contemplate benching Staff even for a couple of fantasy games this year. Plus I’m not a big believer in the NFC North’s defenses. That’s six games you can count on decent averages.

6. Peyton Manning
7. Matt Ryan
8. RG3
9. Colin Kaepernick
10. Tony Romo
11. Eli Manning
12. Russell Wilson
13. Andrew Luck
14. Ben Roethlisberger
15. Philip Rivers
16. Carson Palmer
17. Joe Flacco
18. Matt Schaub
19. Jay Cutler
20. Ryan Tannehill
21. Mike Vick
22. Andy Dalton
23. Sam Bradford
24. Josh Freeman
25. Alex Smith

Yes there are more than twenty five franchises in the NFL, but beyond the current twenty five listed, they should not be on your fantasy football draft board. Much like GM’s and NFL franchises do on NFL Draft Day they go in with a nucleus of players and others they’ve X’d out. Scratch out Mark Sanchez, EJ Manuel, Christian Ponder, and others from even crossing your mind as a fantasy backup.