AFC EAST A CLEAR RUNAWAY

Follow@cimini Future bets are perceived with a wait and see value approach. In the NFL the big draw comes when the playoff seeding is official to latch onto odds for twelve teams. For the most part the odds are still going to be in your favor at that moment. Last year the Ravens cashed in and were 25-1 at the LVH during the playoffs. A few years before the Giants were 20-1, and Green Bay was 10-1. More and more wild card teams are giving people a run for their money. But truthfully more money can be made on just placing a moneyline wager on your long shot from the wild card on. In the playoffs of 2013 the Ravens were huge dogs against the Patriots and Broncos, and then a small dog against the 49ers. You pick your battles when it comes to future odds. The New York Giants were dead in the water a few years ago and appeared like they would not make the playoffs. At 40-1 odds before their Sunday night game against Dallas as a 7-7 team, anyone that took them looked like a true New Yorker degenerate. Then the unthinkable happened. The Cowboys blew a big late lead with under five minutes to go in the fourth quarter and the Giants came back and won. They made the playoffs as a 9-7 team and kept on fire in the playoffs. In-season future wagering has its benefits, and the LA Dodgers are proof of that in major league baseball this season. After a horrid start, mid-June the Dodgers were dropped down to 8-1 to win their division. In the span of a month they over took the division. People that bought low are just waiting now to cash that ticket. When it comes to divisional NFL races the tricky part is to evaluate how much you want to wager to win. Picking the easy team to win seems like the road to take, but it’s also the road that leaves a lot of people’s pockets empty. As of mid-July both the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots were -600 to win their division. I can find reason to believe the Broncos might be in for a bigger fight to win the division then people think. Kansas City and San Diego are two teams that perpetually have fought for divisional rights when counted out. In the AFC East that is a different story. New England has been the crowned champion year after year, and 2013 seems no different. If there is a true weak division in football it is the AFC East. Buffalo (15-1) has a conundrum of a situation at quarterback with a new head coach in place in Doug Marrone. New York’s (8-1) story does not need to get drawn out anymore, but is the NFL’s equivalent of a soap opera. You can catch a segment without DVR’ing an earlier sportscenter, because there will not be a sportscenter that is on that will not mention something about the Jets. That leaves the Miami Dolphins. Oddmakers are not fully discounting the Dolphins as they are 4-1 to win the division. For that to occur it would take a rather mediocre season from the Patriots or a Tom Brady injury to happen. Hey, that was the last time the Dolphins won the division when Brady was out for the year with Matt Cassel at quarterback. Miami at best can be a team that goes 10-6, and that would be at best. I don’t foresee that happening which means New England is in the driver seat to win the division, and easily has the best chance to do so out of all teams in the NFL. All other divisions like I said are close knit from an odds standpoint besides the AFC West. You’ll have to pay the piper though if you want a payout on either team in the Patriots or Broncos. To win $100 on the Patriots to win the division you will have to lay a bet worth nearly $650. Sounds crazy but there will be plenty of thousand dollar bets on the Patriots to capture what is assumed a sure winner.