Odds Advantage Against Texans

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We’re well beyond the point of the season where you can tell who is going to be the cream of the crop teams and who are the duds. All that’s left to figure out are the teams fighting tooth and nail for wild card spots, and premier playoff positioning atop the conferences.

When it comes to handicapping I get lost for words at how some people will still cave for bait lines on teams that have struggled mightily all season long. A prime example of a team last year that people lost their money on were the Philadelphia Eagles. They didn’t live up to expectations as their talent did not match their on field performance. Yet people kept believing that they would suddenly get that magical tug of rope and reposition themselves.

Like Dennis Green’s famous quote, “They are who we thought they were”. That’s how you have to view teams on a week to week basis as a handicapper. The Atlanta Falcons have become this year’s version of a baiting team for amateur and standout handicappers. It’s a quarterback’s league and people still envision Matt Ryan gunning and leading comeback wins on the road and in the Georgia dome.

As I stated a few weeks ago the Falcons are the best money generator you can play against on Sunday. They’ve only covered a few games this season and have failed to do so three straight weeks now; against Arizona, Carolina, and last week against the Seattle Seahawks. I thought oddmakers had learned their lesson with the Falcons when they offered Carolina as a 7.5 point favorite. That didn’t happen as they were only four point underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

The new team everyone should be on are the Houston Texans. I waited a couple of games to see if they could dig down as a team and get themselves back in contention. Though they’ve fought hard to do so it just hasn’t translated in the win/loss column, at 2-7 their season is all but a formality.

They have had issues galore with injuries and the play at quarterback. On top of it they are without Gary Kubiak their head coach for an undetermined length of time. Coach Wade Phillips has the background of a head coaching pedigree but is better suited as an assistant.

On the field Case Keenum has a two game window of showcasing himself. The team is viewing him as the starter of the future in place of Matt Schaub. Just a month ago Keenum was the third string quarterback. I’m not going to buy into the Keenum and Texans sweepstakes. I can’t recall the last time a third string quarterback has risen to success and been successful for a long period. It won’t happen for Keenum either.

Staring at this week’s NFL lines the Texans find themselves as a touchdown favorite against the Oakland Raiders. This is yet another gift line with high value to the Raiders. Not many people are willing to play the Raiders as they have been awful in several of their losses, but they’ve played solid in wins and losses to the Colts, Chargers, Steelers, etc.

I don’t see any reason how the Texans can be a touchdown favorite this weekend, and will be playing the Raiders plus the points.