NFL: SUMMER FUTURES MOVEMENT

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We’re still several months away from week one of the NFL season. That doesn’t stop the futures market from swaying in June. Just a few days ago the Denver Broncos were the Super Bowl favorites. Now it has shifted back to the defending Super Bowl Champion, Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are now right above 5-1 while Denver is listed at 6-1.

A future market for a championship can be very tricky. Typically the odds are going to be heavily favored on the top teams from a year ago. So it’s no surprise that the Seahawks have regained the top spot. Pete Carroll’s system has shown it’s high value. With the strength of their team still entact, they deserve to remain odds on favorites. Then again, there has not been a repeat Super Bowl Champion since the Cowboys did it in the 90’s.

In my estimation I believe the value remains on the Denver Broncos. Yes they were dismantled in the Super Bowl, but they faced an onslaught in the Seahawks. John Elway teamed with John Fox and Peyton Manning will regroup. Remember Fox has been to the Super Bowl before with Carolina. Denver’s organization as a whole has had success in the 80’s and 90’s. The key component to their success was Elway who has made some sound decisions as GM.

The age of Peyton Manning is undeniable. What is not is the fact that he remains a top quarterback in the NFL. Media members want to crush him for his poor playoff record, and the fact that he is one hit away from his career ending. Name a quarterback starting in today’s world and you’ll only find two starting quarterbacks with more titles than Manning. His brother and Ben Roethlisberger. It’s a rare feat to win two championships.

Building pieces to Manning’s success in Denver has been so rampant that people forget it’s only been two years. This will be the third season. Defensively they keep upgrading and offensively they just keep climbing uphill. The playoff blocks that have got in their way are soon to come crumbling down.

Truthfully if it weren’t for the Seahawks immense defense last year, Denver would likely have won the Super Bowl. It’s not often that you see teams back in the Super Bowl off their defensive efforts. Tampa Bay couldn’t do it in the early 2000’s, Chicago couldn’t make it back after losing to Peyton, etc.

San Francisco and New Orleans were a drive away from ending Seattle’s title run.

Sports bettors are eyeing the over/under win season totals. Getting the Broncos at 6-1 should be a top priority. In the regular season this will likely lay down to 4-1 or lower from September through January.

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