HANDICAPPING ANALYTICS: LEAN SHOULD BE ON UNDER GAME FIVE

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I’ve said all along that the Spurs will win the NBA championship. They came into the 2013 season with an eye on the prize after last year’s let down. They’ll still need to win one more game to accomplish that goal. A goal that looks more and more in their hands with the Heat breaking down.

The series is 3-1, and for how well the Spurs have played in Miami, it can’t be overlooked how well Miami played in San Antonio. The Heat could have very well won two games in San Antonio. Barrages of extreme offensive efficiency from all of the Spurs would have been too much for any team to overcome. In fact, their display of offensive prowess has occurred in series against Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Portland.

Portland was the only team totally befuddled by the Spurs to make it a six game series or longer. Dallas was able to calm the storm enough to push the Spurs to seven games. While the Thunder pushed back to even the series with Ibaka back, but could not muster that same resilience in games five and six.

The type of demolishing performances the Spurs put on against the Heat was keyed by the Spurs bench. Patty Mills couldn’t miss, Boris Diaw toned down his turnovers to became an assist catalyst, and Kawhi Leonard had his best two game stretch of his NBA career. It looked like the team just kept the momentum going as if game three never ended.

Those type of performances could repeat themselves against an ordinary team, but the Spurs are playing the Heat in an elimination game.

An elimination game that could mean the ending of a four year era, as well as the looming prospects of the Heat being remolded without LeBron James.

If the Heat go down losing they won’t lose based on poor defense again. They’re strength has been defense all year. Remember it was game one that they forced the Spurs into numerous turnovers.

If even one of the Spurs catalysts in games three or four falter, this should be an easy play on the under. All eyes are fixated on the latest happenings of the Spurs offensive efficiency.

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