The Jets were in desperation mode, as news has been getting worse on Curtis Martin’s chances of playing in 2006. Last week they tried to acquire Cleveland Browns running back Lee Suggs, only to see the trade fall because of a failed physical. More rumors began swirling of other possible backs including TJ Duckett. Well, the back the Jets ended up with happens to be another Pittsburgh Panthers product. How will Kevan Barlow factor as a fantasy impact player in 2006?

Barlow is the type of back that for the last two years has been nothing but a player you could find on the waiver wire. Due to his inconsistencies and struggles with injuries he really has not had many carries over the past few seasons. In fact, even in his lone 1,000 yard season he only carried the football 201 times. So even though he has been in the league for awhile, he has never really taken on a full time load.

So his legs are fresh and he’ll be in a much better environment. Even though Frank Gore ousted him for the starting job in San Francisco, Barlow is a capable back. He is big, and shifty, sort of like an Eddie George. The New York Jets will split carries with Derrick Blaylock and potentially Cedric Houston. Where the impact of Kevan Barlow comes in, is that he’ll definitely be their short yardage and goal line back.

This will be huge for Bettis type touchdown numbers if Chad Pennington can hold onto the starting quarterback position. Already having a weak arm combined with two straight seasons of shoulder injuries, means the Jets would use a ball control style offense. Short and median passes that once inside the opponents fifty would almost always lead to red zone opportunities, instead of the big play at midfield.

Someone has to fill the void of the spectacular numbers Martin has put up in all his years with the Jets. Kevan Barlow will be given every opportunity to do so, and should take firm control of the Jets starting job. Expect Barlow to start off with ten to twelve carries, and soon reach fifteen to seventeen a game. The Jets will run a lot as they always have, and Barlow should get his yards per carry average back up in the four to five yard range.

Easily expect eight to ten rushing touchdowns, and seven to eight hundred yards rushing. This is a situation Barlow has been dying to get into for years. Now with a much better team and his experience, he should be a fantasy steal for touchdowns.

Take a look at fantasy football draft recaps and you’ll see a familiar trend. Many owners are jumping on Ronnie Brown like he is an all pro running back with continuation aspirations. Sure he is headed there, but based on last season there needs to be more shown from Brown. The fact that Ricky Williams is out of the picture does not guarantee a thing. If anything it could have an adverse affect as Williams created that extra motivation for Brown.

Even though people will argue the best back in Miami last year was Williams. You could blame the fact that Brown was a rookie or even the Dolphins offensive line, but Williams did factor more and more as the main back as the Dolphins great finish winded down. It is a stretch by far to include Brown now as a top five running back. Ranking him near the bottom of the top ten with an upside asterisk seems ideal right now.

First off, Brown is going to be dealing with two things he has not been familiar with. One will be carrying the load more than usual. Even in college he had Carnell Williams to split up his carries. As a young explosive back in the NFL now, Miami will be looking to increase his workload significantly. They may reduce it if he can not handle it, as Travis Minor has been effective as a secondary back.

Secondly, Daunte Culpepper is going to be his quarterback, and he’ll likely be rusty for the first month or longer. Meaning teams will gear to shut Brown down from week one on.

Last season, Brown had some crucial fumbles in critical points that were not talked about a lot. Fumbling four times in the NFL season does not seem bad, but when you only carried the football 200 times it is more alarming. Add more carries in 2006 and he could be one of the leading fumblers in the league. Let’s not even think worst case scenario, which would be seeing Joey Harrington inserted as quarterback if Culpepper struggles.

Neither Culpepper or Harrington has been a great producer for their running backs. In Minnesota, Culpepper never had a back that could be counted for in fantasy football, and in Detroit the same went for Harrington. Those cases had all to do with their teams offensive philosophy and the lack of a strong back.

So when you have that early to mid first round pick do not over reach for Brown. He is going to be a solid back but there are too many question marks to take him that high. We all know that having running backs in fantasy football is vital, but you may want to elect to trade that pick down to crop up a tandem of backs.

Fantasy football drafters are loving the fact that Brown has it all too himself. With a weak crop of running backs to draft this season, Brown’s value has skyrocketed. Will he prove to be worthy of his hype or just an okay fantasy back? We’ll see.

What is the most frustrating thing for a fantasy owner? Well, injuries has to top the list and behind that would be a starter being unnamed. In Indianapolis everyone has come to the expected realization of the power fantasy numbers from Edgerrin James. With him in Arizona someone now has to fill that void. Will Tony Dungy go back to the days of splitting carries like he did in Tampa Bay with Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott? Or will Joseph Addai or Dominic Rhodes be the clear cut starter?

As of now we would give the upper hand to Joseph Addai. He is the future feature back without question and the Colts did spend their first round pick on him. With that being said Dominic Rhodes has handled the ball well in prior instances when needed. The Colts will test him out as a starter, but Addai might has the extra edge with his athleticism.

Rookie running backs tend to make the adjustment to the NFL easier than any other position. Addai played for a great college football team in LSU. So there should not be too much of an adjustment for him besides the speed of the game. Even looking at last years rookies in Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown, they both probably did a little better than people envisioned.

Another negative slight on Dominic Rhodes is his contract status. The Colts have not invested or sought to extend his contract…yet. It would take Rhodes having an unthinkable year for the Colts to draw him another offer. His two year deal that he did sign was amazing for a backup running back at nearly 5 million for two years with a 2 million signing bonus.

Foreshadowing anything but split carries in this battle is the only reality unless a couple of things happen. Joseph Addai struggles mightily adjusting to the NFL…ala JJ Arrington, or the most probable cause in that either or gets hurt for a serious duration of time.

Addai better get hit butt signed and to training camp. As Peyton Manning has no patience for a rookie when he is no huddling and doing Manning things. If he holds out too long that puts a serious damper on Addai having any fantasy value for the first half of the season. It will be fairly close to what Cedric Benson caused himself last year.

In early fantasy and mock drafts there have been some owners that have taken Addai before Rhodes. We would question that especially at this point until Addai signs. Of course do not forget Addai is a rookie, so expect rookie numbers from him. He can’t be considered more than a third running back in fantasy leagues.

As for Rhodes just remember what he was able to do when Edgerrin James missed action in 2001. In ten starts and fifteen total games of action, Rhodes had over 1100 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s a wide gap from then and now but it is definitely possible.

The ins and outs of the NFL can be glamorous but also short lived. One minute you could be comparable to Trent Dilfer, as a winning Super Bowl quarterback. A journeyman like Dilfer is past from team to team in his career, with little intentions by those teams of maintaining a future interest. The money is great in the NFL but the stresses of always looking over your shoulder are the obvious necessities of competition. With free agency playing a bigger role every year and the NFL Draft growing as an seven round talent feast; athletes that some would never think would be looking over their shoulders are.

Of course heading into fantasy football drafts, nothing is worse than drafting a bust of an athlete. Knowing the possibilities of an athlete being benched is one of the keys to not wasting a valuable pick. Do not be fooled and lose your senses in thinking that every pick in a fantasy football draft is not important. Every pick is and if you draft right, you will not have to worry about having to dig in on a trade or pray for landing a waiver wire phenom. With that in mind we have compiled a section solely on the premise of athletes heading into the 2006 season with their heads twisted and looking over their shoulders.

Quarterbacks
Joey Harrington vs. Jon Kitna
Let the snarling and growling begin. Jon Kitna has made the bold statements that he has the job and that there is no competition for the starting job. Having cockiness could be a good or bad sign for Kitna. The Lions do need a leader with tough tenacity but the Lions will not be scared to shuffle the situation. McCown is younger and has played fairly well in his stint duty starts for the Cardinals. There may not be enough for McCown to show in preseason to surpass Kitna, but he is almost a given to see action at some point during the season.

Joey Harrington vs. Daunte Culpepper
Determining the strength of Culpepper’s recovery from multiple surgeries and his progression of rehab will determine if this battle starts in Joey Harrington’s favor or not. If Harrington does start the season as the Dolphins starter it could be his for the majority of the year. That is of course only if he is winning. Often times if a quarterback shows that he has the team in the right direction than there is and will not be an immediate change. If Culpepper is forced to limited reps and a low amount of preseason action, than Harrington is the guy to lose the job. There is no way that Nick Saban would jeopardize a regular season preseason training environment for Culpepper to show his rust. He will make Culpepper show he can play with many weeks of practice.

Kelly Holcomb vs JP Losman and Craig Nall
The Bills may be regretting sending Drew Bledsoe’s bags packing with thoughts that JP Losman would be their starter for years. It turned out that he did not even last a whole season and now is a question to be the Bills backup quarterback. Things got so bad that there were rumors that the Bills were going to try to deal him. Overall, the Bills quarterback situation looks cloudy with a clear forecast not in the near future. True Buffalo weather. Holcomb can not be the starter all season, so eventually the Bills will need to decide on which youngster to try to utilize. For fantasy football owners anyone with one of these athletes on your team will be as desperate as can be. These three names should be thrown on a list of fantasy deserted island, with no hopes of thinking of rescuing them to your squads.

Brian Griese vs. Rex Grossman
You know your watching your shoulder when people are criticizing you for Kyle Orton. That was truly amazing to hear people call out the Bears for making the move to bring in Grossman for Orton. With Griese now lurking in the shadows the whispers are already stirring. The fact that Grossman has never been able to stay healthy is another reason to suspect that Griese will be on the field at some point. If that does happen it may not be such a bad situation for the Bears. Griese could thrive in the system of the Bears where a quarterback has the least pressure of any team.

Matt Leinart vs. Kurt Warner
Warner has seen this before when the Giants drafted Eli Manning. He did play well for the Giants and that was not even enough for him to stay away from being benched. This time around Warner will have to play like an MVP to avoid being sat in place of the future of the Cardinals. Of course Warner will also have to try to keep his body well, which has been plaguing him since his MVP days. The Cardinals have done a great job marketing and Leinart is atop the plan, so which week will he enter?

Jay Cutler vs Jake Plummer
If there ever has been a coach that pulls the trigger on a move with the quickness, it is Mike Shanahan. He does not care about a name, he cares about performance. Jake Plummer may have been raved about by Shanahan from the time he was signed, but Shanahan is unhappy with what Plummer has brought over the last few years. That’s obvious with the drafting of Cutler. So it will be up to Plummer to bump off the appearance of Cutler and continue to move the Broncos further into the playoffs. After all he did get them to the AFC championship game, but we all know that is not ever good enough.

Running Backs

Laurence Maroney vs. Corey Dillon
Backs that are drafted in the latter part of the first round have proven to be extremely valuable picks. Maroney hopes to keep that pattern going well, and the Patriots believe he is their back of the future. Corey Dillon is approaching the phase of a running back in which you do not know how much you can get out of him anymore. Dillon has been banged up far too much and the Patriots can ill afford to head into 2006 without insurances. Maroney will pose as a potential fantasy option if Dillon’s injury woes continue.

Mike Anderson vs. Jamal Lewis
Stutter stepping Jamal Lewis will need to get back to moving his legs forward or else Mike Anderson will show him how. Anderson is a straight forward plowing runner and the Ravens will not shy away from using him. Therefore the number of carries will not be shocking to see escalate more and more into Anderson’s arms. Especially if Lewis struggles as he did last year, albeit, the Ravens offense did not help.

Cleveland’s backfield
Just when the Browns thought they had their sure guy, Reuben Droughns goes ahead and gets himself into trouble as well off the field. It seems no one really wants to have the starting job in Cleveland. Not looming too far off from Droughns are Lee Suggs and William Green. It will be entertaining to watch who gets on Romeo Crennel’s good side. In all likelihood the Browns will use a running back by committee. As all are fairly talented backs.

Cedric Benson vs. Thomas Jones
Somehow Thomas Jones was able to stave off Cedric Benson from taking over last season, until Benson was out of the picture with a season ending injury. How Jones did it was by playing well and being the Bears offense every week. Can he repeat that success? We think so, as he seems to have found a niche with the Bears and has improved all around as a back. Yet, the Bears did not use a high first round pick on Benson for nothing. So the eventual problem will soon translate to Benson getting more carries. How that will affect Jones remains to be seen.

Maurice Drew vs. Fred Taylor
Fred Taylor has staved off competition since the James Stewart days. With that in mind, is the time nearing where he will finally succumb? He has yet to lose any of his explosiveness and is still one of the better complete running backs in the NFL. Injuries may have helped Taylor by making his role less heavy than most feature backs. Drew is expected to push Taylor but do no expect anything significant to happen for at least this season.

Wide Receivers

Keary Colbert vs. Keyshawn Johnson
Colbert sure downed fantasy owners last season and the Panthers. It was the Steve Smith and nobody else show if you were a Carolina Panther wideout last season. Recent reports have came out on why that happened. Colbert was playing through an ankle injury all season long even though it was never reported as a weekly factor. If Colbert can come in healthy there is no reason to see why he can not push Keyshawn Johnson. The Panthers would like to have the duo they envisioned last season, and Johnson is not necessarily a serious threat these days.

Chad Jackson vs. Reche Caldwell
Most rookie wide receivers struggle but Chad Jackson may have extra motivation to succeed. After being predicted as a first round pick he slipped all the way into the second round to the New England Patriots. Not bad in terms of where he landed, but a horrible shot to his confidence heading into the NFL. The only way he can change that is to go out and prove to Tom Brady that he wants to be the go to guy. With the Patriots losing David Givens and bringing in Reche Caldwell they are in dire need for someone to step up opposite Deion Branch.

Jabar Gafney vs. Reggie Brown
It is amazing that the Eagles are fine with their existing wide receivers. From top to bottom the group looks like a no name list of AFL or NFL Europe players. Poor Donovan McNabb but he will have to throw to someone. Gafney had some okay games with the Houston Texans that paved the way in the Eagles taking a chance on him. Frankly, if he can not grab a hold of the Eagles second receiver job than the Eagles may need to think about signing or trading for a wideout.

David Boston vs. Michael Clayton
Being in Jon Gruden’s doghouse is never a good thing but Michael Clayton is. With the recent signing of David Boston and Chris Simms raving about him, things do not look too well for Clayton. What does, is the fact that David Boston has been a ghost in the NFL since he left Arizona in 2001. Boston still is a beast but may have suffered too many injuries to get back to being a starting wide receiver.

Reggie Williams vs. Ernest Wilford
Williams may have the obvious talent edge over Wilford but where he lacks is in the department of favoritism. Byron Leftwich loved Jimmy Smith but was always looking for Wilford secondly. Matt Jones has all but ensured himself a starting job so the battle between Williams and Wilford could be a sleeper choice in fantasy leagues.

Having the body to take a pounding in the NFL is one of the most overused instant evaluations of an athlete. Well, we do not believe such and such a player will be able to have the physical capability of withstanding a full sixteen games. Maybe toning down his carries would be the wise move. No. All of that jumbo non sense talk is just that. Injuries occur in football because that’s the nature of the sport. What has been proven to be a myth, especially over the last few years, is that the little backs can not be a force consistently.

It is their time in the NFL, and they have made fantasy owners extremely happy. Who will be that guy next year?

Tiki Barber, Ahman Green, and Warrick Dunn have been the stud “scat backs” over the last five years. Barber has now emerged to the cream of the top, and is arguably one of the top three backs to be drafted in fantasy drafts. Let’s just say that Notjustagame.com’s premature prediction of Barber being a breakout fantasy athlete of 2003 was easily foreseeable. The guy is one of the hardest working athletes in the NFL, and had built the trust of the Giants organization. His status is not dropping anytime soon.

What amazes us about Warrick Dunn is his development. Over the last few seasons, he has turned more and more into a guy that takes the ball straight up the field. In Tampa Bay, it was always to the edges and that’s where a long run would happen. Now, being that he is so small and quick, he has realized the yardage can be even more just running right up the gut behind his lineman.

Some of his runs of last season were unreal with the twisting, spinning, and Barry Sanders like cuts. Just watching Dunn in high definition makes any Sunday enjoyable for an NFL fan. What is even more remarkable about Dunn is how he fills his stats columns with moderate carries week to week. In 2005, he had a career year that will be hard seeing him duplicate. Though he should make up for it with a median amount of touchdowns from his 2004 (9) and 2005 (3) achievements.

The injury bug and numerous other problems hit Green Bay last season. People like to surround major hoopla about the quarterback returning in Green Bay. Well, the Pack won’t be back, unless Ahman Green returns to his elite status following last seasons injury. In all likelihood that should not be a problem as even Sam Gado was able to run the ball well in Green’s absence. Still, Green can not be counted on as a top ten running back anymore. That will make him a steal in most drafts, as his value as a rated twelve to fifteen back will exceed that of any back in that area of rating; especially leagues without a penalty for fumbles.

Out of all the scat backs there is one that is poised to put his name a top that list. Brian Westbrook out in Philadelphia has been under used for the majority of his Eagles career. That has been partly due to himself pouting about contract issues and going through some injury problems. When he has been on the field touching the football, he is a dazzling performer. For that matter, his touches need to boost up dramatically, and that seems to be the emphasis heading into 2006. Andy Reid has admitted that last year they ignored the running game too much.

Improvement from Westbrook is going to soar and likely lead to him being a Pro Bowler. The Eagles already use him well with their screening offense. Now if Westbrook can get to the 200 carry mark for the first time in his career, we would be seeing a fantasy stud. His value has only been holding as a steady second back for this long because of the Eagles plans. Scratch that, and change your fantasy rankings. Westbrook should easily be considered a second round pick, and a heck of a steal if you can land him anywhere after that.

All the hoopla surrounding Reggie Bush slipping to the Saints has left a certain Pro Bowl running back not knowing his state. Obviously a player of Bush’s caliber isn’t going to visit the bench often. So how does this play out in terms of Deuce McAllister’s fantasy football draft status? After all, he has been a top five to ten fantasy football back for several years.

The New Orleans offense is going to be a team with a lot of different looks from previous seasons. Gone is Aaron Brooks and in is Drew Brees, who some people question will be ready opening day. The offensive line is being retooled and back will be Deuce McAllister. He only played three weeks last season before going down with a torn ACL injury.

Recovering from a serious knee injury often depends on the athlete but is usually a two year recovery cycle. So the carries that will drop for McAllister this upcoming season would have happened with or without Reggie Bush. It is just going to give McAllister the necessary rest he needs for his knee, instead of overworking it.

They will complement each other very well but over time you will obviously see more touches from Bush. He is the guy of the future and the Saints are trying to completely make over their franchise. They did that by letting Brooks go and soon the same will happen with McAllister and head coach Jim Haslett. The team is just set to go in a new direction and perhaps even a new city.

Expecting big numbers from McAllister may be the prediction a year from now when he is on a new squad. Stepping into this season, though, landing him in your fantasy football drafts will bite you all season. If you do land McAllister you better get the insurance numbers of Reggie Bush. Bush will likely be swooped up before McAllister in most drafts.

So which rounds would you reach or draft Bush, and what rounds to do you try to steal McAllister? We’d say Bush is worthy of a pick anywhere from rounds five to six, and McAllister at about the same time you would draft Jerome Bettis in previous years. McAllister’s value in drafts depends if you are in a yardage league or not. He should get around eight touchdowns, but his yardage totals will suffer to around six to seven hundred yards.

This situation is bad for any fantasy owner for several reasons. One, neither back will have the strong enough statistics to start any week. Two, you don’t know how effective the New Orleans offense can and will be. The upsides of each player though could be tremendous.

New Orleans will try to keep both backs happy, so maybe the Saints will try to utilize Bush as an all purpose athlete and get him on the field as much as possible. Any touches that he does get he could break for a long gainer and the Saints are not stupid enough to not reach their gamely quota of “Bush” touches. For Deuce McAllister giving him the Bettis treatment around the goal line will satisfy his thirst for reaching the end zone.

Like the Kansas City Chiefs had with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson, they’re loaded at a position that few teams in the NFL could also say. Durability as an NFL running back has been dwindling down by the years so protecting both backs will be vital. It will also help alleviate pressure of Drew Brees in a new environment and let the Saints know if Bush can be a sole every down running back, and opt to let McAllister go via a trade or free agency.