Running Back

Houston's Backfield

Saturday, 14 June, 2008

When drafting for depth at your fantasy running back position you have to take chances on crowded back fields. This day and age too many teams are utilizing a schematic system based upon specific play calling. Gone are the days of a running back that’s going to get the 25 to 30 carries on the majority of NFL teams. After you round up your sure starters you have no choice but to look for potential value. Houston has that.

Matt Schaub did a sound job in his first year with the Texans before his injury. Chemistry did get messed up a tad when Andre Johnson went down, but the offense clicked on and off all last season. All in all that would explain their .500 record, but that finish exceeded expectations in the tough AFC. The question is can Houston lean on a go to running back? They need to be able to count on someone to carry the load at least twenty times a game.

With Ron Dayne gone and Ahman Greens shaky and questionable injury problems chances are there for a newcomer. Someone has to step up, but who? Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Steve Slaton, Darius Walker, and Chris Taylor are all candidates.

Ahman Green goes into training camp as the number one guy, but has been rattled and plagued by injuries. Two of the last three seasons he hasn’t even been able to complete half a year. With his health better than ever the Texans need to figure a way to keep him on the field. At a time he was one of the best threats in the game, but that time was about five years ago. His better days are behind him but with the Texans explosive offense capabilities he can be a serious threat.

Talk about a sporadic running back, Chris Brown, is the epitome of that. He is the type of guy that drives a fantasy football owner nuts. With the Titans he ballooned out of nowhere on occasion only to dart back off the radar just as quickly. The truth is Brown has never been able to hold off or keep a first string job ever in his career. After a fabulous week one performance against the Jaguars, Brown simply could not muster any solid performances. His carries dropped and before you knew it Lendale White snatched away the job and became the main guy. It’s hard to imagine Brown becoming a threat but he should hold the job as the third down and short yardage guy.

It’ll be very interesting to see how the Texans use Steve Slaton. He lacks the expected size that you’d expect of an NFL caliber back. His value is extremely limited for fantasy purposes until he adds weight and opportunity emerges itself. He’ll be brought in too confuse and put pressure more as a receiving threat than rusher. Slaton excelled in college but the transformation is going to be a difficult one for him. It’ll take him a couple years to get that NFL body.

As it goes currently Green should be the easy pick to hold onto the starting job. He is a crafty veteran that has had some unfortunate injuries. It could be a plus as he hasn’t taken a full season of NFL hits to his body for quite some time. If he can stay away from the injury bug a decent season will be ahead for him. The Texans organization knows that they are in dire need of a budding youthful running back prospect. This committee will work this year but will be a growing concern heading into the 2008 off season.

Oh No, Larry Johnson

Wednesday, 19 September, 2007

Larry Johnson is in fantasy news for all the wrong reasons. What has he done that could make his owners even more angry?

Larry Johnson’s season is currently off to a rocky start. His offense has had a hard time moving the football, and Johnson has suffered as a result. He has been averaging under 50 yards a game with zero touchdowns. A holdout could be the blame but most star running backs do not handle carries anyway in preseason.

What surfaced today on a hip hop website is an audio link of the aforementioned, Larry Johnson. This link is not about Larry Johnson complaining on his teammates or demanding more carries. It’s a hip hop hardcore rap song by him that seems to have been done a few months ago during his holdout. Who knows if a buddy of his leaked this or what, but it can not be good for Johnson.

In the song he takes a shot at Priest Holmes trying to come back, and says he is embarrassing himself. There is obviously not a friendship between the two, even though they’ve been Chiefs together for years. Dropping rhymes about guns and such does not seem to be a smart move. He also rhymes about getting money or he’ll never come back. Well he got his money and now that this is out, he may be giving some of it to Roger Goodell.

It’ll be interesting to see if anything happens at all from this. You be the judge and have a listen for yourself. Rapping didn’t work for Terrell Owens and shouldn’t be a priority for any other athlete.

http://allhiphop.com/blogs/multimedia__music/archive/2007/09/14/18589887.aspx

Player Spotlight: Julius Jones

Wednesday, 8 August, 2007

As Bill Parcells left the Cowboys reactions were likely mixed with players on the team. One player that was likely ecstatic was Julius Jones. Jones seemed to be in Parcells doghouse from time to time after he blew up on the scene in his rookie season in 2004. After a few monster games in his rookie season during weeks twelve thru fourteen, fantasy owners expected the sophomore in 2005 to be a serious threat. The six touchdowns and nearly 450 yards in the course of those three weeks is what Jones teased owners with. Since then Jones has struggled with numerous things. The one factors that have been his downfall has been Marion Barber who ate up his touchdown possibilities last season.

Throughout it all last year though he amassed nearly 1100 yards in his shared duties and scored four times. How will Jones and Barber complement each other in 2007?

Wade Phillips isn’t going to mess with how well the running game worked last season, so a time share is inevitable at the start of the season. One glaring statistic that stood out from last season is how the Cowboys abandoned using Jones around 50 percent of what they were before week eleven. He went from having around twenty carries to down around the ten mark. That’s certainly not enough carries for fantasy owners to be optimistic about.

During those weeks Barber wasn’t necessarily involved in a bigger role, as his carries stayed around the same. Instead the Cowboys were airing it out more and throwing nearly thirty times a game. With that amount of attempts from a quarterback the number of carries from the running back position will be around twenty. Not thirty five, which was what the dual role of Barber and Jones were averaging before hand.

Taking those numbers into account, you have to figure the Cowboys will get back to grinding the football especially under coach Wade Phillips. Pleasing Terrell Owens is not going to be an issue and the offense will function as a true offense should.

If the Cowboys would have kept Jones at the role he should have been for the final seven games, he would had a career year. Maybe around 1450 yards instead of 1100. The potential of the Cowboys backfield will be one of the best duos in football. There is no possible way that Barber will have sixteen touchdowns again. His season will go down as a blessing amongst fantasy football players, sort of like Miami’s Karim Abdul Jabbar when he came out of nowhere and had 16 touchdowns in 1997. Something has to give and it will be Barber’s stats.

Perhaps this will lead to an expected increase in Jones’s numbers. If you could add an extra three to four touchdowns to Jones stats then he would be a very decent number two back. In most drafts thus far Jones is slipping a few rounds more then he should. We expect him to get around 1200 yards with seven touchdowns in rushing numbers alone. He has never been much of a factor as a pass catching back but who knows if a touchdown or two can came from that area as well.

Now the Backfield Is In Trouble

Wednesday, 25 July, 2007

Over the last ten years the most consistent and best running backs are harder to name than you would think after being asked that question. Out of all the backs in the league there are only a couple left going on their tenth season plus as being an elite back. Curtis Martin just exited and was probably the best of them all. Quietly though at his small size, Warrick Dunn, has been right there to go along with Corey Dillon and Fred Taylor. Waiting for a downward season from Dunn hasn’t happened yet, but is it happening before it even starts heading into his eleventh season?

Just a little bit over a year ago the tandem in Atlanta for years was DVD. TJ Duckett was the bull rush compliment to Warrick Dunn, and Vick was doing what we’ve seen him do since college. The Falcons then parted ways with TJ Duckett. In what was thought to be a questionable move was erased quickly after Jerious Norwood filled in better than Duckett ever had. Now the allegations on Michael Vick are troubling enough to think that Vick’s days may be over not only with the Falcons but maybe in the NFL.

A day after Arthur Blank called a press conference on the issue, running back Warrick Dunn is now declared out three to four weeks after having back surgery.

Wala, all of the sudden the Falcons went from being a team that was going to have a hard enough time competing in the tough NFC South, to being a team without an identity. A back injury has to always be taken cautiously and at Dunn’s age maybe stretched out even further. The opening day for the Falcons is looking like a Joey Harrington, Jerious Norwood, and Joe Horn debut.

Bobby Petrino has to be ecstatic on how well this is shaping up after leaving Louisville to head into this mess of stress.

The impact of Dunn’s injury means that Norwood will be tested even more during preseason. The Falcons were planning on Norwood being more involved then last season, and now they’ll be able to see if he can be that guy. It’s almost an eerie situation to compare Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson. Faulk went from an All-Pro veteran to fading away to a limited role from injuries in a matter of a years time. The team was suddenly Jackson’s and Faulk decided to retire ultimately.

The good thing about this is that Dunn didn’t put off the discomfort in his back and ignore it entirely until a severe or lingering injury happened in the preseason or regular season. Now, Dunn may be able to come back at the estimated time table of three to four weeks. If so, he’ll be able to get in a game or two of preseason action.

Both backs have a shaky value in terms of fantasy, but more upside than you‘d think. Dunn had a great season last year but only had five touchdowns and a low yardage total of receiving yards. Norwood had a crazy average per carry and showed his incredible size, quickness, and open field speed. With Vick likely out of the lineup, 1,000 rushing yards or thirty to thirty five attempts from the quarterback position must happen.

Expect Petrino and his staff to decide to run the ball even more, and hope that will lead to big plays for the passing game. With Vick out of the lineup, Norwood should easily eclipse 1,000 yards and score between eight and ten touchdowns. As for Dunn draft him as a deep thought as a fourth running back. His value has always been steady and you‘ll be getting strong value with him. Plus, players that are hurt going to fantasy drafts usually slide more than they should. Grabbing him as your fourth running back will give you great depth and insurance if needed.

Player Spotlights: Jeriuos Norwood and Brandon Jacobs

Monday, 11 September, 2006

For all the critics that were worried about what the Falcons were doing breaking up the DVD (Dunn, Vick, and Duckett), have piped down quite a bit. The Falcons knew they had the player they wanted in Norwood to compliment Dunn. Something TJ Duckett was unable to do.

Out in New York there may have not been a more impressive back then Brandon Jacobs for week one. Anyone that watched the Giants preseason games knew this was coming. He dominated the preseason action and is crucial to maintaining the Giants a healthy Tiki Barber. Barber as well as anyone has said he loves the idea of Jacobs spelling him on a few series a game. That will keep him healthy, and let him progress each and every series.

With Jacobs out on the field he bruises teams. John Madden was saying that Jacobs reminds him a lot of Jerome Bettis with his agility, size, and foot speed. Jacobs looks even better than that comparison, with a lot more foot speed and power then Bettis had at least over his last eight years in the NFL.

For fantasy purposes owners with Tiki Barber better start worrying at the high cost of attaining Barber in past drafts. We warned not to expect the same numbers from Barber especially in the touchdown department. Jacobs is going to be the main guy inside the five yard line, and in any short yardage situation.

Based on Tiki Barber’s overall friendliness outlook to the game of football, he’ll likely be fine with that. Did anyone else notice how friendly Barber and the Colts defensive players were acting after he ran the ball? Each burst by Barber the Colts would help him up, and Barber would tap them on the helmet. It has been a long time since we’ve seen that going on in football, especially when every run was seven yards or more.

Hopefully you already have Jacobs on your roster if you drafted Barber. If not it may not be too early to try and acquire Jacobs. Sure his value may be a bit too high for trade sake, but at least begin negotiating. Get in that owner’s head for a week or two until he realizes he needs to unleash Jacobs. We all know that no one is going to start Jacobs unless Barber goes down, so any owner will be willing to trade him.

The Giants should have beat the Colts if they would have kept plugging away at the running game. How does a team stop rushing the football in key stretches of the game? They were averaging over seven yards a carry but would halt their own progress on a drive by putting the ball in Eli’s hands or unforced penalties. For Tiki to only have 18 carries and Jacobs 8, cost the Giants that football game.

On the flipside, the Falcons did what winning teams do. They ran the football down the Panthers throats and it eventually paid off. Their team controlled and dominated the running game with 48 rushing attempts. Dunn had 29, Norwood 10, Vick 7, and Griffith one. They had the running game going and stuck to it for the entire game. It’s going to be very tough for any defense to stop the assault that the Falcons have planned this season. Dunn was the main factor last season and now defenses can’t rest a bit like they when Duckett would spell Dunn. Norwood has that explosiveness and speed that Duckett lacked, and for now Vick is running freely like he did in the past. That’ll likely tone down a bit as Vick was taken quite a few hard hits on some of his scrambles out of the pocket.

Clearly when you’re looking at having an effective running game, you need two strong backs. The Giants and Falcons look to be the leading runners in that category, and that gives them a tremendous edge to get a few extra wins. The type of wins that come down to having that fourth quarter ability to drowned seven to eight minutes off the clock. There are lots of teams that think they have the right duo but none are the staggeringly different runners like the Falcons and Giants can throw at you.

When It Is All Said and Done

Tuesday, 29 August, 2006

Mike Shanahan likes to start up controversy. Especially at the running back position, which every year in itself is a fantasy football owners nightmare. We all know that Denver’s running game is consistently going to be great, but which back is it going to be? It was Terrell Davis for several years, but since him it has been a trademark for Shanahan to keep trying to find a running back.

Early in the preseason, Shanahan decided to name Mike Bell as his starting running back. Instant reaction was kind of surprising. Figuring that Bell was undrafted rookie free agent that was just battling for a roster spot. So as fantasy drafts started happening in August, all of the sudden Mike Bell was the hot choice to take in the fourth or fifth round.

Is this the biggest mistake going on in fantasy football drafts? Yes it is.

Shanahan is doing nothing but stirring up Tatum Bell. Tatum is too talented to not be the feature back or at least carry the ball significantly. He had a great yards per carry average last season, and an equally satisfying amount of touchdowns. The only reason Shanahan named Mike Bell the starter was to get Tatum that extra motivation to use his abilities to the fullest. There have been numerous reports about how Tatum’s work ethic is not where it should be. That move should have gave Tatum Bell the boost he needed. If you’ve noticed in the preseason, Tatum has been still getting carries, and in the last preseason game outdid Mike strongly.

It’s sad to say, but Shanahan and the Broncos have no investment for Mike Bell. His measly rookie free agent contract leaves him as an easy target to let go whenever. Sure, Bell can be utilized as a change of pace back if Ron Dayne can not do it. Bell is a solid back at running in the tier blocking system of the Broncos. He excelled quietly in the Pac-10 at the University of Arizona, and even had a 200 yard rushing game against UCLA last season. The biggest problem though with Mike Bell that won’t go away, is his fumbling problems. They plagued him at the collegiate level and back then you could see how it affected his mentality.

Entering with the Broncos he has been feeling great. All the media is on him with this great story of being an undrafted free agent to a starter. That assumption was too early, and horrible to put in the mind of this youngster. As soon as things start going down a bit for Mike Bell, he is guaranteed to lose his carries and that confidence will be sucked away dramatically.

This whole scenario is making fantasy owners look like fools by drafting Mike Bell as early as he has been going lately. Shanahan played this perfectly. He gave the media a story to devour a month before the NFL season, and in turn the media over played it to the consumer. Who’s Mike Bell was on every sports channel and that caused unnecessary inflation of his fantasy stock.

Either way you look at it, the Broncos running situation was ugly to evaluate for fantasy purposes. Unless you happened to nab both Bell’s than you very well may be stuck and hurting at running back all season long. Getting the compensation at your other positions will be impossible to make up for that poor draft move. Start working the waiver wire as star running backs and such openings appear.

After the first few weeks of the season Mike Bell is going to be unheard of.