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Zack Cimini, Hollis Barnhart, and John Cranton break down Sunday’s NFL matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints. See where each believes there is value ATS in this game.
Handicapping
VIDEO: OVERVIEW OF MIDPOINT OF COLLEGE/NFL SEASONS ATS
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Zack Cimini gives a brief overview of where he stands against the spread in both college football and the NFL.
Notjustagame.com Breakdown from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.
INSIGHT ON MNF: HANDICAPPING COLTS VS GIANTS
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I have a side on tonight’s game plus two premium plays in the NBA. Go under today’s picks to purchase the game for just $30, or with the two NBA plays for $39.
Currently on the season I still have an ATS percentage of 80% in the NFL and 60% in college. Since I’m on a play tonight I’ll give a brief overview on both sides.
For the Indianapolis Colts, bettors will be looking to see if this Colts team had a one week hiccup against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh shook off doubters last night with another fantastic offensive performance against their division rival Ravens. That has to boost the mindset of Colts backers tonight as Pittsburgh’s offense has now scored close to a 100 points in two weeks.
The question for Indianapolis bettors is if they can trust the current pressure the offense puts on Andrew Luck. As great as a quarterback he is, the Colts probably rely on him more than even the Broncos or Patriots do at the quarterback position.
For the New York Giants bettors need to consider the Giants lopsided losses this season. They have had four double digit losses. One to the Lions, one to the Cardinals, one to the Cowboys, and one to the Eagles. The last drubbing to Philadelphia came before the Giants bye week and involved Head Coach Tom Coughlin holding a mandatory team meeting.
At 3-4 and with the Cowboys consecutive losses the Giants have hypothetically gained a game and a half on the division without stepping on the field. The door is open for the Giants to get back into consideration of a division title. But do they have the talent to matchup against the Colts tonight?
HANDICAPPING/FANTASY LAST MINUTE NOTES
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The correlation between fantasy football and sports handicapping is an obvious one. Lets take a look at a few notes heading into Sunday’s games in a few hours.
Tony Romo is out
If you wanted value on Tony Romo’s injury then you should have wagered Tuesday morning when the line was still 3.5. Now it is at a pick em and you’re rolling the dice on Brandon Weeden having a complete abysmal game. Arizona has faced Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr as of late and escaped with close wins. As far as a fantasy standpoint, Cowboys owners should not be worried. The aggressive nature of the Cardinals defense should open up some big plays through the air and ground.
RG3 is back
RG3’s return will be overshadowed by the aforementioned details on Romo. They shouldn’t be. I saw one clip during the Monday Night football game that sparked my interest for this week. RG3’s warm up on the field in Dallas looked crisp. His body language on the sidelines looked like he was ready to go—spitting sunflower seeds in a cup. Coming back from a major knee injury twice is a tough road to climb. Adrian Peterson’s quick return was remarkable but also put a forgetful shadow on knee injuries. Typically athletes take a full season and a half to return strong. RG3 is at that point. His ankle injury might have been a good thing as he gained extra time off for physical and mental preparation.
AJ Green is back
I am a proud fantasy owner of AJ Green in one of my key money leagues. To hear he is returning against Jacksonville is a pleasant delight. He is one of the few receivers in a non-PPR format that can produce double digit points week in and week out. Owners may have to deal with his toe injury all season but if he has the green light don’t sit him.
Other last minute news
Fantasy: Week Nine of fantasy is key to make up that last bit of crucial ground for a playoff berth. It can be done but don’t outthink yourself. Ignore software projections and go with what you’ve seen on the field. With six bye week teams and Thursday’s game, everyone is knocked down to a degree. You may have to win ugly so over analyzing one starter for a bench player could be your dagger. I’d rather lose with a starter that I’ve used on a regular basis than to falter by inserting a perceived better match up.
Handicapping: We’re seeing backers of the Jets from an odds standpoint. Be careful Vick buyers. This is his third career team now and there may be a reason why the Jets decided to sit Vick so long in favor of Geno Smith. Also remember Vick faced the Chiefs as a starter for Philadelphia last year and had a horrible outing. He completed less than 50% of his passes and had three interceptions in a 26-16 home loss.
VIDEO: MNF COLTS VS GIANTS
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Watch as Zack Cimini, Hollis Barnhart, and John Cranton break down Monday Night Football’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and NY Giants.
NBA SATURDAY ATS
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*** Until further notice I will be giving out free ATS NBA plays at a higher rate than usual. This is a way of giving back to readers of Notjustagame.com. Most people want to thrive on both college and the NFL until January and forget about the NBA. Be sure to follow me on twitter@cimini and if interested in any ATS packages send me an email at notjustagame23@gmail.com
There are a gauntlet of NBA games tonight. Don’t let how the college football games go today sway your sports betting later today. In the NBA there are some key lines and plays I’ll discuss below here. Enjoy your Saturday. I love hearing feedback so shoot me an email or follow me on twitter as noted above.
Stay away games
Lakers vs Warriors -15
Inflation applies in all aspects of life. Value is as bad as it gets right now for or against the Lakers. Betting is all about value and if you can’t find it, why play it? Los Angeles is in complete disarray but hung in ATS against the Clippers.
Premium plays I’d play tonight
Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz under 203.5
This young Utah Jazz team has some pieces in place while the Phoenix Suns continue to surprise folks. They’re 2-0 as they come off a win last night against San Antonio. That’s a huge win for this Suns team but I do not expect them to have their legs 100 percent tonight. As athletic as both of these teams are you have to expect 1 quarter or stretch of tough defense. This game figures to be a close battle and I think the money will come in on the under. One of the biggest mistakes bettors do on totals is getting swayed with the presumption of an “over” play on numbers in the 199-205 range.
Miami Heat -9 vs the Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is going to hang in quarters versus NBA teams but it’s going to be an ugly battle to hang in games. Last year this 76ers team shocked Miami at home. That team was completely different with veteran players mixed with currently injured rookie of the year in Michael Carter-Williams. Miami has a clear obvious advantage here with veterans that remember the loss from a year ago. Expect Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Chalmers and company to get out early in this one.
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