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Duke put on a monster offensive performance on Saturday against Notre Dame. One that displayed just how effective Duke is growing as a team. Their young freshman are not only shooting the basketball lights out but they’re confidence amongst each other is starting to show too. Exuberant celebrations and the glow of a team that knows they’re on the verge of being one of the top teams in March.

It happens all the time in the month of February. Teams with young freshman and sophomore that take leaps and bounds in February. After back to back losses to NC State and Miami, Duke has been a much better defensive team. They clamped down against Louisville by using a zone defense and against St. John’s they wore an undersized and team with lack of depth down.

Duke is doing it in all phases now but will that translate over to continued point spread success? Money backing the Blue Devils will only continue to rise now after their strong performances. Tonight they travel and take on ACC rival Florida State.

The opening line was near 10 but has risen as high as 11.5. Florida State is a team that has been a shell of the ACC team we’ve seen the last three to four seasons. Scoring is difficult for the Seminoles as they do not have capable scorers as they did a season ago. But against teams in the ACC that are vulnerable with poor defense they have shown a tendency to claw back in games. They did so in a loss to NC State and were able to come back and defeat both Wake Forest(overtime) and Miami. They also recently defeated Virginia Tech as a slight road underdog.

Their size could be a problem for Duke but the main question is if they can avoid a poor five to seven minute stretch offensively.

It’s tough to pinpoint which Florida State team will show up. The one over the last three to four games or the one that looks like a bottom tier ACC team.

March Madness Betting Guide by betonsports.com. Check the NCAAB key betting trends today

Backing Duke after a monster home win of thirty points two days ago also one I would stay away from.

Take: Pass

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There is a striking commonality with college basketball Saturday’s conference matchups. Conference play is near the mid-point. In most conferences that means teams will square off for the second time this season.

Saturday there are a high-rate of repeat match ups throughout college basketball. Even in the NFL the second time around in most match ups presents a challenge for oddsmakers. You’ll see a vast difference in the point spread even when you factor in the home/away edge. Variables weigh-in on the line movement such as injuries, a team in decline, etc.

From a sports bettors perspective you have to be extra cautious in these second matchups. Keep in mind some of these teams will play a third time in the conference tournament. Expect close games Saturday to be the theme as defense starts to sharpen and coaches start to air out the ball late in games. Possessions get valued even more in February which limits turnovers on the road and allows coaches to execute effectively with a large shot clock.

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Down in Tucson, Arizona the Sun Devils will try to avoid a lopsided loss against the top tier Wildcats. A year ago they did defeat Arizona in a wild affair in Tempe to split the series in 2013-2014. Can they replicate last year’s fortune? It’ll be a tough accomplishment down in Tucson. It’s just an hour and a half to an hour and forty-five minute drive from Tempe to Tucson. See where Vegas handicappers Jeff, Zack, and John see the winning side from a spread standpoint.

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Saturday in the Pac-12 the Utah Utes travel to Colorado to square off in conference play. The Utes have neck and neck with Arizona as the strength of the conference. Colorado has the same core group of a year ago, as the played without Dinwiddie much of the season. Yet injuries have kept them from consistent play. Will a home game against the Utes start the turn around to their season or buckle it even more? Catch what Zack, Jeff, and John have to say about the game from a Vegas perspective.

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Experts in the sports handicapping world are a dime a dozen. Just like in fantasy sports the talk of achievement does not necessarily come to show at season’s end. The month of February can be an arduous trouble-maker for professional handicappers and sports players. Football is officially over and that means dedicated betting squarely on hoops.

Unlike football the hoops schedule is a never-ending seven day a week grind. From now until mid-March teams are pushing for viable positions before their conference tournaments.

In the power conferences seedings won’t move around very much but in the smaller conferences anything can happen. Last year Cal Poly, Milwaukee and a few others made the tournament by getting hot at the right time and winning their respective conference tournaments.

Rather than think short-term players need to think long-term. Don’t be afraid to take days off during the week even if there is a big slate of games on a Wednesday or Thursday in the NBA/college hoops. You did not handicap football seven days a week so why do it in the NBA or NCAAB?

Take some of the big slate days off and choose to evaluate teams rather than ferociously scour game action for lines. By March you’ll be in better position to make a deeper run ATS and see the results in your bankroll growth.

Conference play is one of the more difficult periods to handicap. Coaches are sharper but players are hot potatoes. Free throw shooting could be poor on a certain night. The three pointer may be falling at a ridiculous rate for the other team. Stretches of no buckets can happen in a blink of an eye. Big leads may evaporate and cause a gut-wrenching loss ATS.

The biggest difference in handicapping college basketball is the overall level of play. In the NFL for example you know the range of the Jaguars on a given Sunday. On a weekly Sunday their variance on a scale of a 1 to 10 as a team did not wane all season between the range of a 3-6. A power team like the Denver Broncos was typically in the range of a 7.5 to 9.

In college basketball though a power team that you would expect to be in the range of 7.5 to 9 could have an off-night and give an output of a 4. You can’t handicap a poor night out of the blue. It happens and you have to just file it away as a mental note of a team’s possible bottom.

All of these things and ten other factors are not “bad beats”. This is basketball.

I myself love the evaluation part of handicapping college basketball. There is truly strong money line value each and every night on underdogs of 7-12 points. Great kick backs to earn a little extra during a tough conference month. In fact personally before January I had a 51-14 ATS record. Now I sit at 87-50. That’s the exact same amount of wins/losses during that duration.

But I know with full confidence the evaluation part of handicapping will pay off before the end of the 2015 college basketball season.

Stay patient with your selections and do not get caught up in the daily point spread grind. If your looking at numbers too much than you’re already in the trap of a forthcoming free fall. Evaluating teams does not happen that way.

Good luck with the rest of conference play and if interested in sports picks services click under today’s picks. Follow me on twitter@cimini

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On Friday an Atlantic 10 matchup between Dayton and George Washington will be held. Out in Las Vegas, handicappers Jeff, Zack, and John discuss what they believe the opening line will be and who to take ATS. Watch below.