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The Cavs are up two games to one in the best of seven NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors. If not for a poor ending to game one, they could very well be up 3-0. Winning close games is a part of any sport, but Vegas and oddsmakers still believe the 67-win Warriors are the advantage team in this series.

Defense from the Cavaliers has kept the Warriors from having rhythm offensively for four full quarters. To start games the Warriors have fell behind in every first quarter to start the series. In fact, they’ve trailed every quarter besides the lone overtime in game one that they won.

Three games in to any series of two competitive teams is a mere beginning to a series. Flashback to the Bulls two games to one lead over the Cavaliers. Another close game scenario in game four landed to the Cavs and shifted the series from that point forward. The Bulls never looked the same and the series quickly turned to a lopsided finish. Cleveland won the series four games to two.

Golden State just needs to buckle down and move the ball around a bit more offensively. There just is not any fluid movement with the basketball or too many turnovers. Role players such as Draymond Green, Leandro Barbosa, and Harrison Barnes seem to be trying too hard on the offensive end as Stephen Curry dealt with his game and a half shooting slump. Taking quality shots as a team will help alleviate the scoring void that’s hit them against the Cavaliers defense.

Game four is not a must-win as people would think. Golden State has a strong home record and would still have games five and seven to look as home-court advantage games. Of course that means they’d have to win one game on the road, which they’d rather do now than have to do in game six.

Before game four there will likely be some money that comes in on the Cavaliers anticipating a game four win. But I believe Vegas has the odds right on the series price here with Golden State. After all just two games ago, Golden State were upwards in the -700 territory and Cleveland +400. You can’t have a rapid overreaction in any type of market, even with a two-game win streak from an underdog.

Two Good Bets To Win The 2015 US Open

The U.S. Open tees off on June 18th at Chambers Bay, which is hosting the second major of the golf season for the first time. In fact, this is only the second time that a big event has been held at Chambers Bay. The first was the U.S. Amateur in 2010, so the majority of the field – if not the entire field – has not played a competitive round on this course. That levels the playing field and makes it a little bit challenging for our picks. At any rate, here are our two favorite golf bets for the U.S. Open in terms of golfers to win it all.

Justin Rose (+1650): Rose also seems to be in the conversation for the lead at most tournaments, and while he lost in a playoff at the Memorial to David Lingmerth, he’ll still be in the mix at Chambers Bay. Rose won his first major at the U.S. Open in 2013 at Merion Golf Club, he finished in the top 25 in all four last year and then was T-2 at Augusta in April. He has a smooth, solid golf game that translates well to virtually every type of course.

Dustin Johnson (+1815): Everyone loves a comeback story and Johnson would fit that scenario. He had some off-course troubles last year, but Johnson has since had a child, returned to golf, won the WGC-Cadillac Championship, posted six top-tens this season and that includes a T-6 at the Masters. Johnson’s length off the tee can help him overpower the course, but it has been his putting that has let him down in previous major championships where he has held the lead. With everything that has gone on in his life, Johnson might have better perspective now to help him calm down in pressure situations and we all know he is talented. He’s a solid choice for your golf bets

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Last year there were numerous players capable of winning Finals MVP between the Spurs and Heat. The list ranged deep before you would see Kawhi Leonard’s name at 20-1. He defended, scored, and rebounded to become the catalyst to be the difference and MVP a season ago.

This year both the Cavaliers and Warriors have the same deep pedigree of talented players. With the Warriors favored to win the series, Stephen Curry(reg season MVP) is also the odds on favorite to win Finals MVP at -175.

While the top of the heap features the expected big names, I’m always one to venture down the list for value purposes. This past NCAA championship I recommended Tyus Jones at 25-1 for Duke. During last year’s NBA Finals I recommended a hedge on the MVP(recommended Spurs to win title at 5-1 earlier in the playoffs) by grabbing Dwayne Wade at 10-1 for Finals MVP. I figured if the Heat had any chance of beating the Spurs Wade would have to turn to his old ways for a series—flashes he did show throughout the end of the regular season and some of the NBA playoffs.

This year we’ve heard people rationalize time and time again that Draymond Green is the key to the Warriors even with how well Stephen Curry has played. Curry fills the stat sheet while Green just does his job. That has somewhat changed as the season has stretched on. Green is becoming more and more involved in the offense.

With Klay Thompson’s status unknown, the shifting priorities of the Warriors and Cavs could play into the hands of Green. The Cavaliers are already a strong defensive team that would be able to shift more focus on the perimeter and on Stephen Curry. This would lead to more opportunities for another Warrior player to step up offensively, and you’d have to think Green would be one of the main options in that department.

Defensively, what he can do guarding various players already has his value as a sleeper MVP warranted.

Currently you can grab Green at 15-1 odds. We’re three days away from the Finals beginning and have yet to hear Thompson’s status. Grab the odds now before they shift on word of Thompson possibly missing game one or more.

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We’re a long ways from the November start of the 2015-2016 college basketball season. A few weeks ago I gave out a long shot recommendation on the Syracuse Orangemen at 200-1 odds. That was value based in my eyes and has come down considerably since it was first released.

There will be several rule changes in effect next season that could cause a difference in a few outcomes.

Currently the top of the board for futures features a pro-heavy ACC list with Kentucky(SEC). Duke, Maryland, and North Carolina are all in the mix at the top of the future market. Maryland has had a blended mix of adding transfers similar to the way Gonzaga/Iowa State do, but also hit with developing key recruits that have stayed at Maryland. They have upperclassmen along with returning sophomore Melo Trimble that make them a dangerous team on paper.

Duke and Kentucky are there for obvious reasons. Coach K and Calipari have led the way of the 1 and done era.

But for the first time in the last five years I will not be picking a team from the ACC or Big East. In 2011 I picked UConn, 2012 I misfired, 2013-Louisville, 2014-UConn(Sweet 16 odds), and last year I picked Duke.

My odds on favorite heading into the 2015-2016 season will be the Kansas Jayhawks. The Big 12 did very poor last year in March Madness after being hailed as the top conference most of the season. Self and his talented Jayhawks teams have also faltered in the tournament on numerous instances.

There is no doubt he is a great coach. Before Duke won the title last year they faltered in round two to Mercer the season prior, they also had an exit caused by Lehigh a few years before that. Exiting in March does not mean a coach can’t get the job done in a matter of six to eight months.

Kansas in my opinion is under valued in the future market. Shopping around you’ll be able to find them in the range of 13-1 to 16-1.

What draws me to Kansas is their returning players. I love the nucleus in place with veterans Frank Mason, Wayne Selden, Perry Ellis, and Brannen Greene. Besides North Carolina’s veteran group there won’t be another team in the country that can match their chemistry. Kansas is also getting an early start to their season by participating in the World University Games in July.

Recruiting wise they’ve added two top 25 players in Cheick Diallo and Carlton Bragg. Both will help fill a void on the inside to a team that was too perimeter oriented last season. Their raw talent will provide the necessary hustle plays you look for in talented tall freshman. That mix usually goes well with a veteran group.

The word parity gets tossed around too much in college basketball. To me there is a big gap from the top ten teams in college basketball to the next five and on and on. You have a lot of teams that have minimal depth that fade in February and March as a result. How often players are transferring is also hurting the development of schools that would have a chance to lift from a top 15-25 team into the top ten.

Even the asset of playing in a power conference with key strength and conditioning coaches goes a long way. The transformation players bodies go through from one offseason to the next has grown leaps and bounds. You don’t see this occurring too often in mid to lower level conferences. It’s happening on the campuses of schools that have the state of the art equipment and top notch strength and conditioning coaches. This also pays dividends in-season as staffs have the personnel to keep a player’s body in preventive mode from injuries while still getting stronger in-season.

Kansas may have 3-5 losses in conference play but should be a solid one seed in March. Look for Kansas to creep down from their current future position as the preseason nears in college basketball. Grab the Jayhawks in future markets at 13-1 to 16-1 odds.

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The latest element of a possible injury altering the Finals occurred for the Warriors last night. Klay Thompson took a knee to the head and appeared to be cleared by the Warriors medical staff. After the series clinching win, Thompson began to suffer concussion-like symptoms. Concussions are a tricky facet of any sport for diagnosis and clearance.

With a week off before the NBA Finals begin on June 4th, the last stage for future wagers is set. There were stages in the playoffs the Cavaliers were in the plus-200 range, which was a higher price than most stages of the regular season.

For the Warriors the only price drop that occurred for them was when they were down 2 games to 1 to the Memphis Grizzlies. Surprisingly you could have grabbed the Warriors around +170-+190 for an NBA title and as high as +120 to win the West. After game four against the Grizzlies their odds shifted back to normal range.

Both the Cavaliers and Warriors enter the Finals a bit banged up. That’s expected in any sport at this stage of the season. Where both of these teams have clear advantages is with their depth. The Warriors can go up to ten players deep. Cleveland may not have the same offensive fire power that deep but can match opposing teams with their defense.

Golden State has shown to be prone to have mental lapses in the playoffs. It occurred on multiple occasions against the Pelicans and Grizzlies. In fact, if the Grizzlies did not have to play with a banged up Mike Conley and injured Tony Allen who knows if that series would have went seven games.

The Rockets were a favorable matchup for the Warriors as they play with tempo and high-scoring offense similar to the Warriors. The Warriors were more efficient all season and that showed against the Rockets.

In the NBA Finals will the Warriors be able to avoid the same mental lapses they’ve shown throughout the playoffs? The Cavaliers will be utilizing this rest to their advantage and have won seven straight playoff games.

From a handicapping perspective, this will actually be a series that I decide to straight wager on a game to game basis. I’ll be looking at probably three plays in the series. At this point I do not see any reason to place a series wager. Odds shift enough in that area that you’ll probably be able to land the same or better value after games 3-5.

Pick your spots well. This time off can be a detriment in the handicapping world. Bettors have become accustomed to watching the NBA on a nightly basis and may get antsy for that first game on the 4th. Be patient, and stick to the same discipline that leads to handicapping success. It should be a fantastic series and worth the wait.

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NFL win totals were recently released by LVH Westgate in Las Vegas. Last June I profiled grabbing the under on Saints wins for the 2014 season. The entire division was in free fall mode and that was a solid grab for all of us.

This upcoming season, I’ve had my eyes on a team that I knew would come into the 2015 season with devalued buyers and odds. San Francisco is a team that seems bent backwards from an organizational stand point and player personnel. They’ve had issues dating back to a season ago that have transpired into Jim Harbaugh exiting, two players retiring on defense, and a new head coach in Jim Tomsula. A recipe that in normal organizations would lead you to believe a down season is upcoming.

An overhaul of this size may save the transitional phase of Colin Kaepernick’s career. San Francisco never let Colin be himself from a quarterback stand point. His success during their Super Bowl run came from utilizing him as a mobile quarterback. They rolled him out for big play action gains with Vernon Davis or ran the wildcat to perfection. The toned down use of the wildcat was understandable, but making him a pocket quarterback made no sense to me.

San Francisco never truly had capable receivers that got open on a consistent basis besides Anquan Boldin. Michael Crabtree was hurt far too often and is now a Raider. Davis has been back and forth healthwise but has been their main asset on offense.

The raw talent and capability is there for Kaepernick. Even during his rough phase the past two seasons he has shown enough glimpses to showcase an uptick with new surroundings. Against the Saints he showed poise on the road in a game where he had to utilize his arm via mobility. Down in the fourth quarter he threw a missile downfield that ended up leading the 49ers to victory. The first game of the 2013 season against the Packers was one of the top quarterback performances I can recall watching over the past two years. He threw for over 400 yards and made sideline throws that are unmatched by the majority of NFL quarterbacks due to his overall strength.

This offseason he has spent time training with Kurt Warner and should show development from Warner’s teachings.

Frank Gore was one of the key assets that kept the 49ers from self destructing completely the past couple of seasons. But the time was appropriate to move on and let Carlos Hyde become a feature back along with newly signed veteran Reggie Bush. The speed components of Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson are going to allow for Kaepernick to showcase his deep ball more often. His primary deep ball target has solely been Vernon Davis the past two seasons.

From a division stand point it’s hard to fathom the Cardinals replicating last year’s success. They won far too many games from relying on their defense. Counting on turnovers and stout defense can not be accounted for as often as the Cardinals did last season. St. Louis is still in limbo in my eyes. They have the great coach in Jeff Fisher but the offense remains a huge question mark. The same can be said for Seattle. The addition of Jimmy Graham looks great on paper but will Russ Wilson be able to fit the billing?

Wilson and the Seahawks have had their supreme rise done via a great home field advantage and timely plays on defense and from Wilson with his legs. I haven’t seen enough from Wilson’s arm to believe he can be a top ten drop back passer. Defensively they’ve come down to Earth substantially from their Super Bowl winning season. The Chargers, Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, and Rams showcased that you can attack the Seahawks defense and put the pressure on the offense to produce.

The x-factor in my decision to grab the 49ers is their new Head Coach in Jim Tomsula. The Pennsylvania product has truly worked his way up the ranks. He had a great track record during his years coaching defense in NFL Europe. Since 2007 he has been a part of the 49ers organization as their defensive coordinator. Many people scratched their heads at his hiring but he is the player’s coach that leads to success for NFL franchises. Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Bruce Arians, etc.

Tomsula will get the job done. Gaps currently seen on defense will be filled before the season begins. Offensively the 49ers may have their best offensive team in years.

Play the over on 7.5 wins with the 49ers.