Follow@cimini

The NBA has been known for teams tanking to have a better shot at the number one pick. It has worked in some cases and others it hasn’t. In the NFL, it doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal for the teams at the bottom of the league. Some of those teams end up finishing the season better than we thought and toppling their low over/under win total set by Vegas.

From the average handicapper to the esteemed, many are set to turn in their official regular season win total bets. In all likelihood if you’re putting in a serious strong wager you’re going to wait until the day before the regular season. This gives you the time to rethink a total if a serious injury occurs in the preseason.

Surely people are tracking the schedules of teams they plan to wager a win total on. But are you looking at the possibility of a team resting their starters week 17? It happens all the time and it’s no longer just teams that have secured a bye week.

Years ago bye week teams were stronger than they are now, in terms of record. Therefore records of 14-2 and even 13-3 are fewer and fewer. That means stronger wild card teams who sometimes are in position to rest week 17 to make way for a strong playoff run.

If you’re planning on taking the under on teams, you better put together some hypothetical scenarios in week 17. Just like in a straight wager, you’ll be surprised how dead on totals can be.

In Vegas right now teams that are projected to win double digit games are the Denver Broncos (11), Seattle Seahawks (11), Green Bay Packers (10), San Francisco (10.5), and New England (10.5).

Lets play hypothetical for all these teams and assume that they get in position to rest their starters week 17.

Denver would face Oakland at home
Oakland’s season win total is five games. Juice is -150 on the under and +150 on the over. Playing in a division with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos makes the Raiders one of the toughest teams to bet a season total on the over. They also have the NFC West as their non-conference opponents. Unless the Chargers and Chiefs take a huge step back, getting to four or five wins by week 17 is going to be tough.

Seattle would face St. Louis at home
This is a bit more interesting. Seattle may still be in position for a bye week but might be in a neck and neck race with the 49ers for the division. We’re assuming they have the division clinched and rest against the Rams. St. Louis was one of the better young teams with promise last season. Their butt whippings of the Bears and Colts showcased that. Their total is set at 7.5. Vegas is making it awfully tough to bet on any totals in the NFC West. This Rams team should definitely see a bit of a rise but going .500 is the only way you cash.

San Francisco would face Arizona at home
This was the matchup last season to end 2013. If Arizona would have pulled out the win they would have finished with the same record as the 49ers at 11-5. Not many people are discussing that this Cardinals team went 10-6 and still missed out on the playoffs last year. But they’ve also taking some hits on the defensive side of the football which was their strength. Arizona’s win total is also 7.5 and may be too high considering Carson Palmer’s prior injury history. He went last year unscathed but can he duplicate that against the ferocious defense’s of the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams?

Green Bay would face Detroit at home
Out of all the teams projected for double digit win totals the Packers may be in the best position. They’re a veteran team that should finally be healthy. They’re also in a division that heralds the Vikings, Lions, and Bears. The Bears and Lions have the talent but year in and year out fall into the category of teams that are inconsistent. Green Bay also gets the AFC East for their non conference division. Buffalo, New York, Miami, and the Patriots at home. Detroit’s win total is set at 8. I could see the Lions being one of those 8-7 week 17 teams but eliminated from playoff contention. Either way I think the Packers are resting week 17, which makes the play on the over for Detroit more appealing.

New England would face Buffalo at home
Buffalo’s season win total is 6.5. We’ve seen rookies before have success such as EJ Manuel and then have a disastrous second year. I’m not sold on Manuel yet, and I think his injuries in and out of the lineup actually helped the Bills. Teams were not able to get a consistent feel for Manuel’s abilities and Manuel didn’t have the built up pressure mentally on a weekly basis. Doug Marrone’s coaching abilities remain up in the air as well on the NFL level. Their schedule is favorable though, with winnable games against the Raiders, Browns, Vikings, and Houston scheduled. Assuming they can go 3-1 in those games they may be in position week 17 to pad their season total against a resting Patriots.

Follow@cimini

I’m still going to stay with my advice on week one and even week two of preseason football. Stay away. There is no reason to lay solid money on a side this early in the preseason. If you want a solid play keep dialed in to baseball.

That doesn’t mean there is not solid value in the first few weeks of preseason. There will be opportunities for fantasy football owners to seek out hidden gems. From a handicapping standpoint you need to know the depth on the field. Starters still will only play a half or an extended series or two into the third quarter.

Covering the spread will still depend on the reserves on the field.

One theme to pick up from the Giants versus the Bills is young talent with a chip on their shoulder. As I mentioned in my write up of that game, Ryan Nassib, was facing his old college coach in Doug Marrone. There was speculation that Nassib would be the Bills pick in the first round. The Bills passed and Nassib slipped all the way to the fourth round.

His preseason play was not stellar last year and the Giants need to see what he is capable of. Nassib’s bomb in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference.

Seek out young talent on rosters that need to step up. Quarterbacks should rank the highest in your research, but don’t be afraid to seek defensive specialists, wide receivers, and running backs. Who can forget New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz a few preseasons ago?

In 2010 he scored four touchdowns in the preseason. Though he didn’t do much in the regular season, the Giants downgraded their former starters and went with the likes of Cruz in 2011. There are all types of candidates that are ready to shine over these weeks of August.

During the regular season the NFL game is a complete reversal of what you’ll see now. Now, a player or two can dominate. You have basic schemes being run defensively and a scaled down talent level.

Monitor this first week and pounce on value as it develops over the course of the preseason.

Follow@cimini

One of the most underrated hinderances to a successful handicapper is the ability to look ahead. No human being on this face of the Earth can escape the thought of the future. Present day thoughts may include what’s for dinner, what you are going to watch later, or what you’ll be doing that evening. Future thoughts can include various things as well, like vacations, goals, etc.

When handicapping, some cappers and non-professional bettors will get locked in to that present day only. They don’t glance at the injury report, the amount of travel a team has endured, or how many consecutive games they’ve played at home. It’s an odd thing I see happen almost strictly for handicapping the NFL.

It must have something to do with a shortened season compared to other professional sports. Knowing a teams travels from September through December is a must.

Athletes are human too. They like to be at home around their families for as long as they can. We see teams come out on fire in September all because of a great schedule. Here are a few teams that have a favorable stretch of home games or a tough job ahead of them on the road in September.

For the most part the NFL does a great job intermixing home and away games, but there are always a few teams that suffer a bit or get a scheduling boost.

Chicago Bears
Four of the Bears first six games are on the road. This will help the Bears in November and December as teams have to travel to Solider Field in the brutal cold. But it’s not going to help them get off to a sound start. Three of their away games the Bears will surely be underdogs. Against the 49ers, Falcons, and Panthers. The other is in New York against the Jets. Bears bettors that placed the over on 8.5 wins will be gritting their teeth early on in the season.

Green Bay Packers
Another NFC North team that has to travel early-season. Green Bay will be on the road three of their first four games. Not only does that probably make Mike McCarthy unhappy but they kickoff the NFL season on Thursday at Seattle. On the brighter side for the Packers the other two road games are against divisional opponents.

New Orleans
Though New Orleans has three of their first four games on the road as well, they have favorable matchups. They’ll face the Browns, Cowboys, and Falcons. Atlanta is game one which has historically been a great showdown. All three teams are coming into this season off of lows a year ago. To get three road games out of the way early against these teams may benefit the Saints.

Tampa Bay
Currently the Bucs win total are floating between 7 and 7.5. Optimism around this team circles around their youth maturing after a year ago. It may be possible, but they’ll be tested in the early stages of the season. After two home games the Bucs get three straight on the road. A week three Thursday game against the Falcons, followed by Pittsburgh and the Saints. Ouch!

New England
I’ll have to slate the Patriots first three of four on the road in the same category as the Saints. Rather mediocre. The Patriots opponents will be Miami, Minnesota, and Kansas City on the road. Sandwiched in their third game is a home game against the Raiders. It’s safe to say the Patriots will be road favorites against both the Dolphins and Vikings. Depending on how KC starts the season that spread will be tilted slightly likely in the Chiefs favor.

Jets
Maybe Rex Ryan has finally caught a break. Three of their first four games are at home. Not only that but the Jets get their NFC opponents almost all out of the way. They’ll face the Packers, Lions, and Bears from week two to week four.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Have you already made that bet on the Steelers over their 2014 set win total? They won’t be on my official list to do so. Four of their first six games are on the road. It is followed up by three straight home games but I’ll pass on this Steelers team. Their type of football and the division their in always makes the Steelers a pass versus bet team in my book.

Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco and the Ravens get three of their first four games at home. Albeit, against divisional rivals in the Bengals and Steelers. Week four they face Carolina at home. The Ravens need this strong start to not play chase in their division all season.

Tennessee Titans
Boy the Titans are not happy campers with their September schedule. For a team that didn’t make the playoffs you’d think they did. They only get one home game in September and that’s against the Dallas Cowboys. Their three road games are against the Bengals, Colts, and Chiefs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles welcome to the NFL….or veteran Chad Henne, prepared to get supplanted in a hurry. Whoever starts off the bat for the Jaguars gets to face the Redskins, Eagles, and Chargers three of the first four games of the season. If Henne is named starter (probably will) watch the Eagles line move closer to 14. The double-whammy for Henne as he will be thinking about his opponents and his job being taken.

Denver Broncos
Denver’s early season schedule has an eery “hmmm” feel to it. Sort of like the Cavaliers getting the first pick yet again. Denver has two home games followed by one on the road. Then they have a bye week in which they return to play at home again in week five. Theoretically including their bye week, Denver will be at home six of the first eight weeks. A plan to keep Manning fresh is inevitable. Fantasy football owners better expect a scaled back season.

Others: St Louis–It’s not early in the season but they have four of five road games in November.

Follow@cimini

The NFL has been the best of all major sports to have hope for a franchise as a fan. Over the last five to ten years we’ve seen division battles from every team. In the NFC North, the Vikings, Bears, Packers, and even Lions have had success. in the NFC South, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina all have rotated amongst division leaders.

Pick a division and it’s seen a merry go round of change. Still, certain divisions get wrote off and thought of as bottom tier. Take the NFC West a few years ago. It was not that long ago that the division was thought of as pathetic. Remember when the Seahawks won the division at 7-9 in 2010?

They pulled off an improbable home upset of the Saints. Since then the division has been one of the strongest from the Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers. That’s how quick things can change.

In the AFC East it’s been a rocky tenure for the fans of Miami, the Jets, and Buffalo. There’s no doubt that the Patriots have controlled the division for the better part of Brady’s career. Challenges to develop a non-veteran quarterback have plagued the division. New regimes finally changed that philosophy and all went out and drafted their potential future quarterback.

Miami has Ryan Tannehill, the Bills EJ Manuel, and the Jets Geno Smith. Young quarterbacks that still have a ways to go to bring their teams to playoff aspirations. One key area all teams have continued to get better in is defensively.

Buffalo overpaid for some free agents a few years ago but were fortunate to make some key draft picks that have paid off. Miami has built pieces here and there and has had a formidable defensive line for years. New York has had their ups and downs defensively but has never waned from being a defense that keeps the offense in games.

These are the signs that lead me to believe the AFC East is ready to arise amongst the rest of the NFL. This plays a large key for season totals and handicapping games on a week to week basis.

Compare that 2010 season of the NFC West to last years standings in the AFC East. Miami and the Jets both finished 8-8 and were still largely considered failures by fans and the media. Buffalo endured an injury prone season at quarterback under a first year head coach and finished 6-10.

Don’t be surprised to see this division sneak up on the rest of the NFL and surprise NFL fans and sports bettors this season.

Follow@cimini

Bookmakers offshore and books in Vegas are grinning from ear to ear as football has finally arrived. The bait has been set for the preseason football game. The Bills versus the Giants spread currently sits at 2.5 points in favor of the Bills.

The perfect line to make you think a little bit on what Vegas is thinking. Remember a line is set to draw both sides.

I’m not going to give much analysis with the teams on the field, that’d just be silly. Instead I’ll give advice on to why the Bills are favored.

Buffalo has a cast of young athletes and has shown in the past to utilize undrafted free agents as starters or second string players. Just take a look at the merry go round of receivers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had (David Nelson, etc).

A younger head coach in Doug Marrone should be testing his players a bit more than the veteran in Tom Coughlin in preseason game one. Though the Giants have a lot to prove they’re still going to count heavily on veterans, more than the Bills.

Vegas may have the point spread tilted to the draw they want. Before flashing your money in front of the sportsbook counter, I’d advise to wait. As I stated on twitter betting on preseason football is not necessary. Definitely not in week one of preseason. Your odds are better playing roulette. It’s way to unpredictable. Once you get into week three of the preseason that’s a different story.

A fact to remember about young teams is easy. Think back to your first time playing under the bright lights. Okay. Now think about watching a college basketball team or football team led by underclassmen. Transfer those thoughts to a professional level. Your position and job are under more scrutiny. Pressure is intensified to prove yourself.

What typically happens in those scenarios? Pressure on young athletes leads to mistakes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see careless plays from the Bills. With the speed of football careless plays lead to turnovers, missed block assignments, tackling woes, etc.

Enjoy the canton speech and keep that money safe for two weeks down the road.

Source: cheatsheetwarroom.com