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A year ago the MAC definitely proved they were an unworthy conference for bowl representatives. The conference went 0-4 including Bowling Green, which lost 30-27 to Pittsburgh.

Western Kentucky was a team that was on its way up with Bobby Petrino. They had some exciting moments including an opening week win against SEC opponent Kentucky a year ago. But losing a coach of Petrino’s caliber detracts from the program. The departure of running back Antonio Andrews is also a hit a program like Western Kentucky doesn’t replace overnight. Andrews ran over 1500 yards his last two seasons in Western Kentucky. Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty will have to prove he is ready to lead this team with his arm.

Bowling Green was a team last year that got away with winning ugly. The MAC boosted that effort as the weak conference allotted for miscues and sluggishness. The team did thrive defensively though allowing just under 16 points a game. A mark that was 5th best in the country. This is key as the team returns nine upperclassmen from last years defense.

Where I expect Bowling Green to take big steps and to do so Friday is offensively. As stated they were often times sluggish out the gate of games. In the first quarter of the first nine games last year they only scored a touchdown in two of those games. Thanks to their strong defense they were able to comeback from deficits or be in a scoreless game.

Towards the end of their MAC schedule things began to change. Senior quarterback Matt Johnson started to find his rhythm earlier in games. They torched Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, and Northern Illinois.

Look for Bowling Green to come out strong and perform well tomorrow on the road. Being a team from the MAC has this line shadowed down, but they have a clear talent advantage. Buy the hook down to 7.

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Each day this week I’ll give a breakdown of win totals and where I believe the right side is on the number. Numbers are moving continually and will grow even more before the season begins. This is the fun part of getting into the futures market. Lets just hope no serious injuries occur for those tickets on the over.

Vegas Has it Right On
New England- 10.5
I’ve already written a piece on the AFC East trending upward for 2014. That typically means a downfall for the team that runs the division yearly. With New England their consistency marks an unfathomable reason to suddenly write them off. They’ve improved defensively and have the same nucleus offensively. If it’s not broke don’t fix it. This was one of the easiest totals set by Vegas and it’s spot on.

Beats the Number
New York Jets 7
Initially when looking at the number of seven wins, you’d automatically have a thought of under. On second thought though this team was somewhat impressive last year with a scaled back offense and defense back on the rise. They had some strong wins against the Saints and a few other teams. Normally I’d downgrade a team with a quarterback controversy set to embroil the season. In this case I consider it an upgrade. Geno Smith can’t possibly play worse and Mike Vick is a quarterback you don’t want playing a full 16 games. At some point he’ll probably see the field and a shortened season could be to the Jets benefit. He has been in this role before and understands his situation in New York.

Miami Dolphins 8
Can Ryan Tannehill show true year three quarterback progression? I believe so. He was the main culprit to the demise of many winnable games for the Dolphins a year ago. His confidence began to wane after the Dolphins week four loss on Monday Night football to the Saints. They were ran out of the building with Tannehill having blunder after blunder. After that game the Dolphins play calling was never the same. It was scaled back and hindered the team. This year the play calling will bode to Tannehill’s strengths and we should see a turn around. Don’t be surprised if they get close to a playoff berth or end up with one.

Falls Short
Buffalo 6.5
Being a Syracuse fan I had my questions with the selection of Doug Marrone as head coach. Usually a college coach making the transition to the NFL had a serious strong campaign in college. Marrone did not. Syracuse did develop into a bowl eligible team but getting to a bowl game is not a great achievement anymore. Buffalo seems to have the pieces to string together wins but this does not seem to be the year to do so. The reach in drafting EJ Manuel that stirred controversy will start to rear its head this season.

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Notjustagame.com’s, Zack Cimini, gives insight on betting on preseason football and today’s games in MLB.

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Look no further than Philip Rivers a year ago on how reduction of turnovers can help a team transfer to a higher result of wins. San Diego barely made the playoffs and needed every win they got in 2013 to do so. It was done by the Chargers changing their offense to more of a ball control style, and having Philip make quicker decisions.

Rivers raised his touchdown numbers to 32 from 26 while reducing his interceptions from 15 to 11.

Other quarterbacks that had improvement were Cam Newton and Jay Cutler.

Here are some quarterbacks this season that could propel their team from a near .500 team to playoff bound with improvement in the turnover department.

Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill now in is third year has to alleviate the mistakes from his week to week performances. Miami lost a couple of games because of Tannehill’s ill-advised decisions scrambling that led to a fumble or poor throws. He did improve as a passer last year with 24 touchdowns, but cannot have 17 interceptions this season. Miami expects to have an offense that involves quicker decisions to help Tannehill out.

Matt Ryan
Expectations fell way short in Atlanta a year ago, and hit the team performance wise all over the roster. Ryan threw for a four year low of just 26 touchdowns, while having a career-high in interceptions at 17. It’ll be interesting to see if the Falcons are healthy enough to keep Ryan from having another tailspin season.

Eli Manning
Manning has always had a “Brett Favre” affect on the football field. In 2013 it was an eyesore to watch on a weekly basis. The Giants did not have a running game. It got to the point they had to sign a retired Brandon Jacobs and Peyton Hillis. Manning is not going to change the way he throws the football, but the Giants need to provide him with ample talent to keep him from those mistakes. I doubt we will see 27 interceptions from Manning this season. From a fantasy football standpoint Manning never has been a top twelve starter. He is a suitable backup for occasional use. From a handicapping standpoint, Manning and the Giants could be ready to repeat their magic and get back into the playoffs.

Others: Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, and RG3

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Listening to and viewing picks on tonight’s preseason games, I’ve seen a lot of support on the Buffalo Bills. When same views are in play it can be a vast detraction to true point spread value. Sure the line on this is just -1, but if you’re handicapping this game be leery.

The whole notion that the Bills should come out better is an aberration. Just because they have one preseason game under their belts means nothing. That’s like saying in the regular season a team off consecutive losses should be better prepared for a win. We all know that a poor team will continue to lose.

Watching Buffalo in game one I witnessed a lot of poor technique defensively and a slow moving offense.

Look for that to continue in preseason game two tonight in Carolina. The lean on Buffalo has drawn a tad bit more as well with the news that Cam Newton likely will miss tonight’s game. I wouldn’t draw much into that either as a few series of a four quarter game does not effect the overall result.

Carolina has a range of backups that have played big roles before in the NFL. Former Pro Bowl quarterback, Derek Anderson and ex-Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joe Webb.