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Watch as Hollis Barnhart, Zack Cimini, and John Cranton discuss NFL value on futures post week nine.
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Updated NFL Handicapping Team Rankings
Updated NFL Handicapping Team Rankings
We’re nine weeks into the NFL season. NFL team handicapping rankings are a good gauge to find value as a bettor and to also see where slight favoritism is from oddsmakers. They can change rapidly but here are my NFL handicapping team rankings after nine weeks of football. Disagree or agree feel free to tweet me at the handle @cimini.
1. Arizona Cardinals– Arizona has covered four straight games and have been fantastic ATS all season. It helps facing team young quarterbacks and team backups, as they have with Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Brandon Weeden, and now this week with Austin Davis.
2. New England Patriots– The Patriots are clobbering teams. Those that ignored the media criticism after the Kansas City Chiefs loss are smiling well right now.
3. Indianapolis– The Colts have covered games handily and each game that they have won. Wins against the Ravens, Jaguars, Giants, Texans, Bengals, and Titans. Oh, and lets not forget their half point cover as an underdog week one against the Broncos.
4. Denver Broncos- They haven’t been the best ATS but with the talent the Broncos have there is no way they can’t be in my top five.
5. Philadelphia Eagles- At points this season they looked like a strong college basketball team; having big leads and letting them slip away to blow a cover. Lately though they’ve been on the winning side of the number.
6. Dallas Cowboys- The team may be in a conundrum right now but there is no denying that the Cowboys had the sharps and public fooled the first half of the season.
7. Miami Dolphins- Miami is on a three game ATS win-streak. They’re doing so with ease in beat downs over the Chargers, Jaguars, Raiders and Bears. Before that streak they had a narrow loss to the Packers at home that was aided by a fourth and long conversion by Aaron Rodgers.
8. Cleveland Browns- No one in their right mind thought the Cleveland Browns would have five wins and Johnny Manziel would still be on the bench. Early in the season the Browns were losing games but still covering (Ravens and Steelers games). The Browns may have just five covers ATS but they’ve won two key games outright–against the Steelers and against the Saints.
9. Pittsburgh– Oddsmakers sided against the Steelers at home the past two weeks and paid the price. It’ll be interesting to see how the shift in odds on a week to week basis works out with Pittsburgh.
10. Buffalo– Buffalo has quietly been a solid team in general and ATS. Their move to Kyle Orton likely saved Doug Marrone another season.
The Rest
11. Kansas City
12. Baltimore
13. Green Bay Packers
14. Cincinnati Bengals
15. San Francisco
16. Seattle Seahawks
17. Detroit Lions
18. Houston Texans
19. San Diego Chargers
20. Minnesota Vikings
21. New Orleans Saints
22. Washington Redskins
23. Carolina Panthers
24. Chicago Bears
25. St. Louis Rams
26. NY Giants
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Atlanta Falcons
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. NY Jets
32. Oakland Raiders
VIDEO: NFL HANDICAPPING 49ERS VS SAINTS
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Zack Cimini, Hollis Barnhart, and John Cranton break down Sunday’s NFL matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints. See where each believes there is value ATS in this game.
VIDEO: OVERVIEW OF MIDPOINT OF COLLEGE/NFL SEASONS ATS
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Zack Cimini gives a brief overview of where he stands against the spread in both college football and the NFL.
Notjustagame.com Breakdown from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.
INSIGHT ON MNF: HANDICAPPING COLTS VS GIANTS
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I have a side on tonight’s game plus two premium plays in the NBA. Go under today’s picks to purchase the game for just $30, or with the two NBA plays for $39.
Currently on the season I still have an ATS percentage of 80% in the NFL and 60% in college. Since I’m on a play tonight I’ll give a brief overview on both sides.
For the Indianapolis Colts, bettors will be looking to see if this Colts team had a one week hiccup against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh shook off doubters last night with another fantastic offensive performance against their division rival Ravens. That has to boost the mindset of Colts backers tonight as Pittsburgh’s offense has now scored close to a 100 points in two weeks.
The question for Indianapolis bettors is if they can trust the current pressure the offense puts on Andrew Luck. As great as a quarterback he is, the Colts probably rely on him more than even the Broncos or Patriots do at the quarterback position.
For the New York Giants bettors need to consider the Giants lopsided losses this season. They have had four double digit losses. One to the Lions, one to the Cardinals, one to the Cowboys, and one to the Eagles. The last drubbing to Philadelphia came before the Giants bye week and involved Head Coach Tom Coughlin holding a mandatory team meeting.
At 3-4 and with the Cowboys consecutive losses the Giants have hypothetically gained a game and a half on the division without stepping on the field. The door is open for the Giants to get back into consideration of a division title. But do they have the talent to matchup against the Colts tonight?
HANDICAPPING/FANTASY LAST MINUTE NOTES
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The correlation between fantasy football and sports handicapping is an obvious one. Lets take a look at a few notes heading into Sunday’s games in a few hours.
Tony Romo is out
If you wanted value on Tony Romo’s injury then you should have wagered Tuesday morning when the line was still 3.5. Now it is at a pick em and you’re rolling the dice on Brandon Weeden having a complete abysmal game. Arizona has faced Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr as of late and escaped with close wins. As far as a fantasy standpoint, Cowboys owners should not be worried. The aggressive nature of the Cardinals defense should open up some big plays through the air and ground.
RG3 is back
RG3’s return will be overshadowed by the aforementioned details on Romo. They shouldn’t be. I saw one clip during the Monday Night football game that sparked my interest for this week. RG3’s warm up on the field in Dallas looked crisp. His body language on the sidelines looked like he was ready to go—spitting sunflower seeds in a cup. Coming back from a major knee injury twice is a tough road to climb. Adrian Peterson’s quick return was remarkable but also put a forgetful shadow on knee injuries. Typically athletes take a full season and a half to return strong. RG3 is at that point. His ankle injury might have been a good thing as he gained extra time off for physical and mental preparation.
AJ Green is back
I am a proud fantasy owner of AJ Green in one of my key money leagues. To hear he is returning against Jacksonville is a pleasant delight. He is one of the few receivers in a non-PPR format that can produce double digit points week in and week out. Owners may have to deal with his toe injury all season but if he has the green light don’t sit him.
Other last minute news
Fantasy: Week Nine of fantasy is key to make up that last bit of crucial ground for a playoff berth. It can be done but don’t outthink yourself. Ignore software projections and go with what you’ve seen on the field. With six bye week teams and Thursday’s game, everyone is knocked down to a degree. You may have to win ugly so over analyzing one starter for a bench player could be your dagger. I’d rather lose with a starter that I’ve used on a regular basis than to falter by inserting a perceived better match up.
Handicapping: We’re seeing backers of the Jets from an odds standpoint. Be careful Vick buyers. This is his third career team now and there may be a reason why the Jets decided to sit Vick so long in favor of Geno Smith. Also remember Vick faced the Chiefs as a starter for Philadelphia last year and had a horrible outing. He completed less than 50% of his passes and had three interceptions in a 26-16 home loss.
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Achieve optimal daily returns with consistent winners right here at Notjustagame.com. Get exclusive opportunities to cash big on moneyline parlays, especially during football and college basketball season. Readers were able to cash big as evidenced below. $50 netted close to 12K, and $100 moneyline parlay would have netted you near $24,000!! Free insight can be found here daily with premium plays, so bookmark Notjustagame.com today!
Moneyline Parlay Winner PostAdvice on Uconn at 100-1 odds Advice on Spurs after Game 3 loss to Mavs
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