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Zack Cimini currently stands at 29-18 (62%) in college football this season and 30-9-2 (77%) in the NFL. Interested in winning ATS head to the today’s picks section

In Tempe, Arizona, Arizona State has had a shockwave season. When Taylor Kelly went down against Colorado many people had no idea who Mike Bercovici was. The junior quarterback was one of Todd Graham’s first recruits three seasons earlier. Bercovici went from fans wanting Kelly back immediately in a nationally televised blowout loss to UCLA, too the media stirring a quarterback controversy on a Hail Mary win over USC.

An Arizona State team that was seconds away from being 3-2 suddenly had a pulse. They’ve went on to win five straight games over USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and Notre Dame. At 8-1 everything looks good for Arizona State fans as their team sits cozy in the top ten. Yet I’m afraid the quick rise over the last month going 4-1 ATS will reverse course in Arizona State’s final three games.

Arizona State are one of the teams I make sure to watch every week. There are several factors that point to upcoming spread let downs and an eventual exit out of the top ten.

Taylor Kelly’s Struggles
Arizona State is winning but it’s had more to do with an emerging defense than from an offensive standpoint. The defense shut down Washington, Stanford, Utah, and all but one quarter against Notre Dame. Maybe Kelly is still having lingering issues with his foot as he hasn’t shown the same read-option speed from a year ago. Kelly’s read-option capabilities is what separates him from Mike Bercovici. From a passer standpoint Kelly can make the back shoulder throw with the best of them. It’s his pocket presence and accuracy down the field that has been a major problem. It almost cost Arizona State a chance for overtime against Utah. With Arizona State down 16-13 late in the fourth quarter, Kelly threw the football right into a Utah defenders hands that was dropped.

Second Half Coaching Adjustments
Over the last five to seven years Arizona State has been one of the best first half teams in college football. The problem for them has been halftime adjustments. For some reason or another Arizona State is awful at making necessary adjustments to increase their leads or get back into games. I believe it has to do with the simplicity of ASU’s play calling. Offensive coordinator, Mike Norvell relies heavily on Kelly’s read option and designed short route throws to Jaelen Strong and running back DJ Foster. For big plays they mix in a few down field calls for big target, Gary Chambers. The offense lags mightily when the read option isn’t humming. Defensively, Todd Graham’s philosophy has never changed. He calls blitz after blitz after blitz. Teams that can attack Graham’s chess match are going to score a ton of points like UCLA did this season and Texas Tech in January’s bowl game.

Scheduling
Arizona State probably had the best four weeks of matchups any Pac-12 team could ask for. Washington has shown they’re not the same caliber Pac-12 team they have been the last five years. Stanford is also in a transitional phase as a team. Utah hurt themselves by taking a lead against Arizona State and deciding to let their defense win the game. The play calling with a lead was far too conservative. And of course the Notre Dame matchup was a perfect for Todd Graham’s blitzes against Everett Golson. Golson has shown over the last month that he struggles at making quick decisions under pressure, and Notre Dame’s defense wasn’t exactly up to par against far lesser talent than Arizona State.

Quarterback Matchups
Kevin Hogan, Everett Golson, Travis Wilson, and Troy Williams have been the quarterbacks Arizona State has faced over the last month. It was Williams first start as Cyler Miles was out due to an injury. Travis Wilson has had to endure starting and being benched multiple times by Utah’s coaching staff. Kevin Hogan has shown he is not a Pac-12 viable quarterback, and Golson has been a turnover machine in seven straight games. Sean Mannion may be the quarterback finally able to challenge ASU’s blitzing style and force Graham to relent on his blitzes.

Campus Influence
Arizona State and South Florida are two college campuses that campus life can cause a disadvantage over the course of a season. Arizona State President, Michael Crow, has made it known he wants to lead the country in college enrollment numbers. That has led to an ever-growing campus of over 75,000 people. It has to be tough as an athlete being on a campus that crowded. I’m sure Todd Graham and his staff do their best to not make it a distraction, but with a team now ranked high campus vultures are surely floating around even more.

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Zack goes over his ATS percentages in college football and the NFL this season. To sign up for daily or weekly packages click here for today’s picks.

Sports Handicapping NFL Week 10 from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.

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Zack has been enjoying a phenomenal year ATS. After last weekend’s games he sits at 78% or 80% depending on where you got the Bengals line vs the Jaguars. Either way he sits as the number one documented NFL handicapper in the country. To get on board with him, email at notjustagame23@gmail.com or text/call at 1-480-776-4478

Watch as Zack Cimini, John Cranton, and Hollis Barnhart breakdown Monday Night’s primetime matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers.

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My premium plays board has been set for a few days. Under today’s picks you can view the nine game weekend slate I have. Five plays in college football and four in the NFL. All college plays start after 12PM PST with the majority after four PM.

To view some analysis and free plays be sure to watch my NFL Sunday video with Kellyinvegas or weekly segments with John Cranton, and Hollis Barnhart via JimFeist’s Youtube channel.

Here are a few tips to help you this college football Saturday.

**Know your plays beforehand
Whenever there is a big college football board like today people tend to lose discipline. You must have your plays set before you arrive to your local sportsbook. I see it week in and week out where people start talking to their buddies or whoever and blindly placing extra bets. That’s exactly the same recipe that traps people in normal casino games. Stick to a winning formula. Go to your book with plays ready and stick to that throughout the day. If you get dragged into a negative day from improper discipline you have no one to blame but yourself.

**Parlays, live bets, halftime wagers, teasers
Full game ticket wagering is what 90% of the general population places a wager on. Live wagering is something that has taken off in Europe and is picking up steam in the United States. The crazy swings of a game aren’t worth a live bet in the late third quarter or fourth quarter. All that is doing is upping the handle of the sportsbook. There is a reason why the line is -110 on both sides.

**Lost value in line movement
This is an easy one to say but needs to be drilled in for a college Saturday. I see so many people have supreme line discipline for the NFL, NBA, and other major sports. But when it comes to college football it’s like a prism of feasting on Thanksgiving day. Everything is thrown out the window and you can gorge on anything you see in front of you. The magical stare at a prime SEC or Pac-12 game and jumping on the over on Saturday. Zero effort is given that the over/under total has moved 4-6 points since opening on Sunday. Don’t jump on a ship that’s set sail on Tuesday and expect to have smooth sailing.

Enjoy the games and let me know how you fared via twitter@cimini

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Watch as Zack Cimini and Kellyinvegas take a look at a few key games in week ten of the NFL season.

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Grab Week 10 NFL Handicapping plays from Zack Cimini. He is the #1 documented NFL handicapper in the country, and boasts a 60% college football ATS record as well.

Handicapping NFL games is tough in itself but Thursday’s have proven even trickier than usual. The AFC North boasts all four teams above .500 and will showcase the Browns at the Bengals. Cincinnati was the team in the AFC North that many thought would be the clear leader in the division. That is proving to be not the case, and the Bengals have been one of the more inconsistent teams in the division.

At the beginning of the season and last year the Bengals were considered a dynamite home field team. With the way they’ve played you’d figure they were poor at home. That is not the case as they are undefeated at 4-0-1. In fact each team in the division is 3-1 or greater at home.

Over their last three home games the Bengals are just 1-2 against the number. Depending on where you grabbed the line last week against Jacksonville they could be 1-1-1. The underlying problem is Cincinnati is not playing a complete four quarters of football. Against Carolina their defense self destructed, against Baltimore the play of Andy Dalton almost lost Cincinnati backers their money and then last week against Jacksonville the offense and defense were lackluster in the fourth quarter.

It seems that Andy Dalton is struggling to get on the same page for four quarters with his offense. Maybe it had to due with missing AJ Green or adjusting to Jeremy Hill at running back. Whatever the case may be he needs to showcase he can lead a team for four quarters. The Bengals should feel very fortunate their record is 5-2-1 with the way they’ve played.

Defensively, Cincinnati is showcasing they have too many holes to be more than a first round playoff team. They’re ranked 31st in the NFL against the run and that includes monster rushing games from a quarterback in Cam Newton and former quarterback turned running back, DeNard Robinson.

On the Cleveland Brown’s side of things one has to feel that wave of averages coming down on them. Not all four teams in the AFC North can continue at their pace of winning. Brian Hoyer has done a sound job but would be near the bottom five to ten in football based on his play over the last month.

They’ve also had three wins over very poor teams in the Raiders, Titans, and Buccaneers. Scheduling starts to tighten up a little bit more for them over the final half of the season.

Just like the Bengals their defense has been getting carved against the run. That’s shocking to say as the three teams that I just mentioned in the Raiders, Titans, and Buccaneers hardly have a running game as it is.

We’ve seen large point spread blowouts this season on Thursday Night Football. This is a divisional game and could provide a slow start for the Bengals, but I’d expect them to rise to the occasion and finally shake the ugly wins they’ve been tallying.

Grab the Bengals in a spot that should finally produce an ATS win.

Interested in getting on board with Zack Cimini’s plays, call or text, 1-480-776-4478. A representative will answer and touch base with you on steps to get on board. Or email directly at notjustagame23@gmail.com