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Folks, Zack has been sizzling in 2014. He is the #1 documented NFL handicapper at over 70% on the season. In college basketball he is off to a 14-2-1 start and in college football he is a smidge under 60% on the season. Be sure to take a look at all my daily, weekend, and in-season packages under today’s picks.

For Saturday’s college football free play I’ll focus on Notre Dame vs USC. The line on this game is seven points in favor of USC. As bad as Notre Dame has looked it was only a month ago that they were considered a possible playoff team. That was even with a narrow defeat to Florida State.

Mark this game a month ago and the spread would have been closer to 3.5. There have been no injuries of major concern to Notre Dame and USC is a team that no one quite really knows where to rank them.

I think this matchup is more even on paper than people and the oddsmakers think. Notre Dame and Brian Kelly will be able to score against USC and I think their defense will finally be up for the challenge.

This line should be more in the 3.5 to 4 range and will be decided in the fourth quarter. Take Notre Dame plus the touchdown and enjoy Saturday’s games. For premium plays I have a three game board for college football Saturday and a five game Sunday board in the NFL.

Things are going from bad to worse in the NFL. Just four years after the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks became the first team in history to get to the playoffs holding a losing record, we could see the first 10-loss playoff team this year. All members of the awful NFC South have losing records, but despite how bad they’ve been this season, they still have a chance to make it to the playoffs.

If the season ended today, the 4-7 Atlanta Falcons would be in the playoffs and they are on pace to win just six games. The Falcons are listed as betting long shots to win the Super Bowl listed at +10,000 at most online sports betting sites.

To make things even more ridiculous, not only the Falcons could make the playoffs at 6-10 as NFC South champions, they would host a first-round playoff game against a Wild Card team that is likely to have 10 or 11 wins. Just one game behind the 4-5 Saints, the Falcons own a division-best 3-0 mark with one victory over New Orleans and two against the floating Bucs.

If that really happens, Atlanta would become just the second team in league lore to make the playoffs after losing five straight tilts during the regular season.That would be an embarrasement for the NFL, but will open the chance to analyze and implement the playoff format that the head of the competition committee has been proposing for years.

NFL’s head of the competition committee, Rich McKay, has made several tries to change the playoff format. The changes suggested include the fact that teams that play during the first weekend of playoff games (seeds 3-6) are seeded according to their regular season records and tiebreakers, regardless of whether they are a division champion or a Wild Card team.
A 6-10 playoff teams, or even worse, a 5-11 playoff team which is still possible, is probably what we need to get the number of votes needed to make bring some changes to the NFL.

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Zack and Kellyinvegas do a quick video for week thirteen of the NFL season. They discuss one of the Thanksgiving day games involving the Seahawks and 49ers.

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You’re preparing for family to come into town for Thanksgiving, checking Black Friday sales, and dealing with the high volume holiday work load that comes annually. To top it off you’re planning on placing some wagers on Turkey day and rivalry week in college football.

Rivalry games do tend to bring out some of the best matchups of the season. What’s better than in-state games at all hours of the day. No need to argue with other family relatives anymore as you have your tablet to isolate the game you want to watch.

In the NFL there will be three Thanksgiving games starting with the Bears vs Lions, than the Cowboys vs the Eagles, and last will be the Seahawks vs the 49ers.

It sounds like a great lineup to get some action on. And there may be value but be extra cautious before placing wagers. Here are a few keys to enjoy the Thanksgiving week and family time.

Family Influence
Love for our family is endless but many of them will probably recite players names that heydays were many years ago. We all have been in family conversations or friend conversations where they have no clue what they’re talking about when it comes to sports. Remember that when they’re trying to influence you on a play Thursday and into the weekend.

Consumption
This is a huge key. You’re going to already be consuming endless amounts of food. Don’t carry that over into wagers. You should not be placing wagers on every game. Limit the board to where true value is and let the rest take care of itself. Who cares if you’re not on the afternoon game in the NFL. If you live on the west coast and aren’t buried in snow, head outside and toss the ball around with family members. Turn on the radio and listen to Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, and countless others that call radio broadcasts. If you’re stuck indoors pull out one of those closet board games that are always fun to entertain everyone with and keep the game on in the entertainment room.

Stay away or keep totals limited
I hardly recommend totals to my clients and the reason for it is the game changing moments in football. You can account for turnovers in a point spread but in a total they can be absolute daggers. Not to mention time of possession, red zone failures, etc. One or two crucial mistakes and you’re total could be dead in a heartbeat. At least with a spread you’re truly never out of it unless you’re counting on the Jets/Titans/Jaguars.

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Watch as Zack Cimini, Hollis Barnhart, and John Cranton discuss how poor coaching has affected point spread line value on NFL Sundays.

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There are a gamut of games for college football Saturday. This week I chose to give out a free play in the NFL and can be seen in the blog post before this. On the season Zack is 31-20 ATS which equates to a solid percentage of 61% on the season. In the NFL he is 75% through eleven weeks with a record of 33-10.

To get on board with him for college football Saturday be sure to click on today’s picks. Weekend packages are $99, college football $55, and the NFL is $65.

Enjoy the games and be sure to follow me on twitter for insight throughout the day @cimini